The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 15-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Five pitchers on today’s slate own a salary of at least $10,000 on FanDuel:
- Trevor Bauer (R) $11,600, CLE @ KC
- Charlie Morton (R) $10,800, TB vs. BAL
- Mike Minor (L) $10,800, TEX vs. LAA
- Patrick Corbin (L) $10,600, WSH vs. MIA
- Matt Boyd (L) $10,000, DET @ CWS
Bauer has been a slight disappointment this season after breaking out in 2018. He’s pitched to a 3.55 ERA, but his 4.11 FIP suggests he’s been worse than his traditional metrics indicate. He posted a 2.44 FIP last season, so he’s taken a pretty large step backward.
That said, he’s coming off a dominant performance in his last outing vs. the Kansas City Royals, striking out 12 batters while allowing just one run over 6.2 innings. He’ll face the Royals again today, and he obviously has upside in this matchup.
Unfortunately, there are some concerns. For starters, his Vegas data is just not that impressive. He owns a 3.9 opponent implied team total and -170 moneyline odds, which are below-average marks considering his salary.
Bauer has also been hit extremely hard over his past two starts. He’s allowed opposing batters to post an average distance of 219 feet, exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 60%, all of which represent increases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Bauer has some appeal for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) since he’ll likely command low ownership – he’s currently projected for just 5-8% on FanDuel – but there’s a lot of risk for cash games.
Photo credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cleveland Indians pitcher Trevor Bauer (47)
Morton is putting together an excellent season in his first year with the Tampa Bay Rays. He’s pitched to a 2.43 ERA and 2.92 FIP while striking out 10.80 batters per nine innings. He’s been a particularly strong fantasy asset over the past month, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.50 on FanDuel.
Morton is in a wonderful spot today vs. the Baltimore Orioles. Their projected lineup has struggled vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .307 wOBA and 26.6% strikeout rate. They’re currently implied for just 3.1 runs, which is the lowest mark on the slate. Morton also owns a K Prediction of 8.0, and pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.12 and a Consistency Rating of 70.0% on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
He’s the easy top choice if you’re paying up at pitcher in cash games.
Minor was set to start yesterday vs. the Los Angeles Angels, but will take the mound today following the tragic passing of Tyler Skaggs. He’s priced like a stud but doesn’t possess many stud-like qualities. He owns an opponent implied team total of 4.9 runs and a K Prediction of just 5.0, which makes him tough to roster in all formats. The Angels’ projected lineup has also crushed left-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .332 wOBA.
Corbin is an interesting pivot away from Morton. He’s taking on the Miami Marlins, who have been one of the worst offensive teams in baseball this season. They currently rank just 29th in runs per game and wRC+ against left-handed pitchers.
Corbin also enters this contest in excellent recent form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 180 feet, exit velocity of 90 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 29%.
He’s a particularly strong option today on FanDuel, where his $10,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 73%.
Boyd rounds out the stud group, and he’s a bit of a boom-or-bust option today vs. the Chicago White Sox. He has nice strikeout upside – the White Sox’ projected lineup has posted a 27.9% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months – but his Vegas data is pedestrian. Boyd owns an opponent implied team total of 4.7 runs, which is well above the marks for most of the stud pitchers. He’s also been hit really hard over his past two outings. He’s only in play as a contrarian GPP option.
Value
James Paxton is always an appealing fantasy option because of his strikeout ability. He’s posted a K/9 of 11.33 this season, which would rank eighth among qualified starters. He’s been unlucky when batters have put the ball in play, but his strikeout prowess means he’s capable of having a huge fantasy outing every time he takes the field.
Paxton leads all pitchers on today’s slate with a K Prediction of 8.6 vs. the New York Mets. The Mets have been solid offensively this season, ranking fourth in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers, but they have struck out at an above average rate.
Paxton’s Vegas data is also solid. His opponent implied team total of 4.2 runs is tied for the sixth-lowest mark on the slate, and he’s also a slight -134 favorite. Overall, he possesses similar upside to the top-tier pitchers with slightly more downside.
Matt Straham is a nice value option on DraftKings, where his $6,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%. He’s taking on the San Francisco Giants, who have been the worst team in baseball this season against left-handed pitchers. They rank dead last in wRC+ against southpaws, and their projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of 25.5% against left-handers over the past 12 months. Cheap left-handers in particular have been a fantasy goldmine against the Giants, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.80 over six starts on DraftKings.
Fastballs
Reynaldo Lopez: He’s not a particularly good pitcher, but he has an elite matchup and costs just $5,600 on DraftKings. He’s taking on the Detroit Tigers, whose projected lineup has struggled to a .280 wOBA and 26.7% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Ross Stripling: He’s an intriguing option on FanDuel at just $6,500. He’ll be making just his second start after spending most of the year in the bullpen, but he could potentially pitch five innings vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Aaron Nola: His Statcast data from his past two starts is outstanding, and his $9,200 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%. Nola should command very little ownership in a tough matchup vs. the Braves, making him an intriguing buy-low option.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- 1. Joc Pederson (L)
- 2. Alex Verdugo (L)
- 3. Justin Turner (R)
- 4. Cody Bellinger (L)
- 6. Matthew Beaty (L)
Total Salary: $22,400
The Dodgers are no longer playing at Coors Field, but they still have immense upside on today’s slate. They’re currently implied for 5.6 runs, which is the fourth-highest mark.
They’re taking on Diamondbacks right-hander Taylor Clarke, who has struggled immensely over his first 38.1 innings in the big leagues. He’s pitched to a 6.10 ERA and 6.05 FIP, and he’s struggled in particular with keeping the ball in the ballpark. That could spell trouble against the Dodgers, who rank second in ISO against right-handers this season.
Left-handed batters have had their way with Clarke, posting a .407 wOBA, and four of the five stacked batters will swing from the left side of the batter’s box. Pederson and Bellinger and known righty killers, while Beaty is a nice source of savings. He’s priced at just $3,500 on DraftKings and has posted a solid .341 wOBA and .163 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months.
The top four-man FanDuel stack also belongs to the Dodgers, so let’s focus on the Colorado Rockies instead. They own the top Coors Field stack on today’s slate:
- 1. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 2. David Dahl (L)
- 3. Nolan Arenado (R)
- 6. Raimel Tapia (L)
Total Salary: $15,700
Coors Field is always going to attract a ton of attention in DFS, particularly on days where there’s no true stud pitcher for whom to pay up. No stadium in baseball provides the same kind of fantasy value as Coors Field, and frankly, it’s not even that close.
The Rockies lead the slate with an implied team total of 6.9 runs and will be taking on Astros right-hander Jose Urquidy. He’ll be making his major-league debut after pitching to a 3.40 ERA over 76.2 innings in the minors this season. Needless to say, this is a huge step up in weight class.
Dahl stands out as an excellent value at just $3,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 94%. He’s posted strong marks against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, along with a .403 wOBA and .247 ISO against right-handers at home this season. He also enters this contest in excellent recent form, posting a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +21 feet and hard hit differential of +13 percentage points. He’s an elite target even if you aren’t stacking the Rockies.
Other Batters
The Rays are another team with a lot of upside on today’s slate, and Brandon Lowe stands out as one of their best options. He’s expected to occupy the leadoff spot in the lineup and will be on the positive side of his batting splits against Orioles right-hander Asher Wojciechowski. Wojciechowski will be making his first start in the majors since 2017, and he’s allowed left-handed batters to post a .420 wOBA over the course of his career. He’s a nice value at just $4,200 on DraftKings.
Joey Gallo may not garner a ton of attention today in a lefty-lefty matchup vs. Jose Suarez, which makes him a strong target for GPPs. He’s displayed immense power against left-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .403 ISO, and Suarez has allowed 2.57 HRs per nine innings through his first 21 MLB innings. He has one of the highest ceilings on today’s slate.
Very few batters have made better contact than Juan Soto recently. He’s posted an average distance of 250 feet, exit velocity of 94 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 51%, all of which represent increases when compared to his 12-month averages. He’ll be on the positive side of his batting splits Marlins right-hander Zac Gallen, and his $4,700 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis. And if you’re looking to bet on sports in New Jersey, check out our how-to guide.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Rays P Charlie Morton (50)
Photo credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
