The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 15-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Five pitchers on today’s slate own a salary of at least $10,000 on FanDuel:
- Justin Verlander (R) $12,300, HOU vs. TB
- Walker Buehler (R) $11,600, LAD @ SD
- Luis Castillo (R) $11,000, CIN @ MIA
- Lucas Giolito (R) $10,300, CWS vs. MIN
- Patrick Corbin (L) $10,000, WSH vs. BAL
Verlander headlines the slate, and he’s put together another dominant season in 2019. He’s pitched to a 2.77 ERA and 12.04 K/9, both of which rank in the top seven among qualified starters. He’s also been an excellent fantasy asset recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.89 over his past 10 starts on FanDuel.
That said, Verlander is in a tough spot today vs. the Tampa Bay Rays. His opponent implied team total of 3.2 runs is still tied for the best mark on the slate, but the Rays’ projected lineup has posted a .340 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Verlander has also been hit hard over his past two starts. He’s allowed opposing batters to post an average distance of 235 feet and hard-hit rate of 56%, both of which represent significant increases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Buehler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since the All-Star break, pitching to a 2.44 ERA and 12.38 K/9.
He’s in an elite spot vs. the San Diego Padres, whose projected lineup has struggled to a .289 wOBA and 25.2% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Buehler owns an opponent implied team total of 3.4 runs, and his K Prediction of 8.5 ranks first on the slate. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.61 on DraftKings (per our Trends tool).
Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Walker Buehler
Buehler also represents one of the best pure values at pitcher on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 80%.
Castillo has arguably the best matchup among the stud tier. He’s taking on the Miami Marlins, who have been dreadful against right-handers this season. They rank just 29th in wRC+ and sixth in strikeout rate, and right-handers have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.69 on DraftKings when facing the Marlins this season.
Castillo’s opponent implied team total of 3.2 runs is tied for the top mark on the slate. His $10,000 salary on DraftKings also comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Giolito is the easiest stud pitcher to cross off today. He’s taking on the Minnesota Twins, which is one of the toughest matchups in baseball. They rank fifth in wRC+ against right-handers and have averaged the most HRs per game this season. Giolito owns an opponent implied team total of 4.6 runs, which is more than a full run higher than any other stud pitcher’s. He also owns a K Prediction of just 5.4, so he doesn’t offer much upside for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) either.
Corbin is the cheapest stud option on FanDuel, but he has the most factors working in his favor. For starters, he owns an elite matchup vs. the Baltimore Orioles, whose projected lineup has posted a .289 wOBA and 32.5% strikeout rate against southpaws over the past 12 months. His opponent implied team total of 3.4 runs is tied for the third-lowest mark on the slate, while his -319 moneyline odds rank first. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.14 on FanDuel.
Corbin also owns the best recent Statcast profile among the stud pitchers. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of just 179 feet, which represents a decrease of -30 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Factoring a comparable distance differential into the above Trend increases the average Plus/Minus to a ridiculous +11.59. He’s the top option for cash games, particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 91%.
Values
It’s a great day to pay up at pitcher, but there are still some appealing value options worth considering.
Andrew Heaney has an excellent matchup vs. the Texas Rangers, who rank just 25th in wRC+ against left-handers this season. They’re currently implied for 3.6 runs, which is the fifth-lowest mark on the slate. The Rangers have also posted the highest strikeout rate in the league against southpaws this season, giving Heaney considerable upside.
Heaney has also pitched well over his past two outings, limiting opposing batters to an average distance of 196 feet, exit velocity of 88 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 36%. All three represent significant decreases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Adrian Houser makes sense if you’re looking to spend down at SP2 on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $5,000, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three starts.
He’s in a decent spot today vs. the St. Louis Cardinals. They’ve been mediocre against right-handers this season, and their projected lineup has posted a .301 wOBA and 27.0% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. They’re currently implied for 4.2 runs, and Houser is also a solid -140 favorite.
Houser has demonstrated increase strikeout ability this season, posting a K/9 of 9.33, and he’s also put together a strong Statcast profile over his past two starts.
Fastballs
Jeff Samardzija: He’s taking the mound in San Francisco, where he’s pitched to a 3.27 ERA this season. He also has a nice matchup vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks, whose projected lineup has posted a 29.2% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Steven Brault: He’s impossible to trust for cash games – he owns an opponent implied team total of 5.5 runs – but he has a few factors working in his favor vs. the Philadelphia Phillies. He’s dirt-cheap at $4,800 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%, and the Phillies’ projected lineup has posted a .275 wOBA against southpaws over the past 12 months.
Marcus Stroman: He hasn’t pitched particularly well as a member of the Mets, but his Statcast data suggests he’s due for some positive regression. He also has more strikeout upside than usual against the Chicago Cubs, whose projected lineup has posted 29.5% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Oakland Athletics:
- 1. Marcus Semien (R)
- 2. Matt Chapman (R)
- 3. Matt Olson (L)
- 4. Mark Canha (R)
- 6. Khris Davis (R)
Total Salary: $22,700
The A’s exploded for 19 runs on Monday, and they’re in another great spot today. They’re currently implied for 5.8 runs, which is the fourth-highest mark on the slate. Their top stack also costs just $22,700, which is very reasonable considering their total. The A’s own a Team Value Rating of 81 on DraftKings, which is the second-best mark on the slate.
They’re taking on Royals left-hander Mike Montgomery, who has struggled this season. He’s pitched to a 4.99 ERA and 5.53 FIP, both of which are the worst marks of his career. The A’s have been one of the best teams in the league this season against left-handed pitchers, ranking fifth in wRC+.
The majority of the stacked batters have excelled from a Statcast perspective recently, but Canha leads the way. He’s posted an average distance of 249 feet over the past 15 days, which represents an increase of +38 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Khris Davis
The A’s also own the top four-man FanDuel stack, so lets focus on the Boston Red Sox instead. They’re playing in Coors Field, which obviously gives them massive offensive upside:
- 1. Mookie Betts (R)
- 2. Rafael Devers (L)
- 3. Xander Bogaerts (R)
- 5. Andrew Benintendi (L)
Total Salary: $17,100
How you choose to approach the Red Sox will have a large impact on today’s slate. They’re currently implied for a whopping 7.3 runs, which is the top mark on the slate by a considerable margin. That said, they’re also extremely expensive across the industry, so you likely won’t be able to pair them with one of the top pitchers.
Still, it’s hard to deny their upside. They rank fourth in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season, so they can obviously do some damage in the hitter’s paradise that is Coors Field. They’re taking on Rockies right-hander Rico Garcia, who is a borderline major leaguer at best. He’s merely the Rockies’ No. 20 ranked prospect, and he’s pitched to a 7.16 ERA over 55.1 innings at AAA this season.
Bogaerts in particular stands out as an elite value on FanDuel. He’s priced at $4,100, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%. Bogaerts has also fared better against right-handers than left-handers this season, posting a 149 wRC+.
Other Batters
Finding values on today’s slate is going to be important given the amount of expensive pitchers and stacks worth paying up for. Luckily, there are a few guys that stand out on each site.
- Eric Thames (96% Bargain Rating on FanDuel): He’s on the positive side of his batting splits vs. Cardinals right-hander Miles Mikolas, and Thames has posted a .372 wOBA and 26.9% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months.
- Matt Adams (94% Bargain Rating on FanDuel): Adams is known for his power, and he has an excellent matchup today vs. the Baltimore Orioles. Their pitching staff has already allowed more HRs than any other team in league history, and the Nats are currently implied for 6.3 runs.
- Jake Lamb (99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings): He’s raked over the past 15 days, resulting in a distance differential of +20 feet and hard hit differential of +7 percentage points. He’s historically done his best work against right-handed pitchers, and Samardzija has allowed 1.91 HRs per nine innings to left-handed batters this season.
- Aaron Judge (97% Bargain Rating on DraftKings: He’s not exactly cheap at $4,500, but this still represents an opportunity to buy low on him. The Yankees are currently implied for 5.5 runs, and Judge has exceeded his 12-month averages in distance, exit velocity, and hard hit rate over the past 15 days.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Nationals SP Patrick Corbin (46)
Photo credit: Geoff Burke-USA Today Sports
