The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Happy Fourth of July! Today is loaded with baseball games, and the DFS slates differ by site. DraftKings features a two-game early slate starting at 11:05 a.m. ET, a six-game main slate at 2:05 p.m. ET, and a four-game late slate at 7:07 p.m. ET. FanDuel features a three-game very early slate at 1:15 p.m. ET, a four-game early slate at 4:05 p.m. ET, and a four-game main slate at 7:07 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers on today’s slates are priced above $10,000 on FanDuel:
- Hyun-jin Ryu (L) $11,100, LAD vs. SD
- Jose Berrios (R) $11,000, MIN @ OAK
- Matt Boyd (L) $10,600, DET @ CWS
Ryu is the most expensive pitcher on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and he’s putting together a dominant season for the Dodgers. He leads the league with an elite 1.83 ERA, while his 2.88 FIP ranks fourth. The only negative on his resume has been his strikeout ability, as he’s punching out just 8.21 batters per nine innings.
He’s in a nice spot today vs. the San Diego Padres. Their projected lineup has posted a .299 wOBA and 24.5% strikeout rate against southpaws over the past 12 months, and their implied team total of 3.2 runs is the lowest mark on the slate by a significant margin. Ryu is also a -220 favorite, and pitchers with comparable Vegas data have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.93 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
His lack of strikeout upside also isn’t as big of a factor as usual. Only one pitcher on the FanDuel main slate owns a better K Prediction than Ryu’s mark of 6.5.
Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Hyun-Jin Ryu
Berrios is also putting together a solid season in 2019. He’s pitched to a 2.89 ERA, but some of his advanced metrics suggest he’s due for some regression. He’s been lucky in terms of batting average on balls in play and strand rate in particular, and his 4.20 xFIP is considerably higher than his ERA. Like Ryu, Berrios has also seen a significant decrease in his strikeout rate this season, resulting in a K/9 of just 8.20.
He’s tough to trust today on the road vs. the Oakland Athletics. Their projected lineup has posted a .339 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months, which is one of the highest splits-adjusted marks on the slate. As a result, Berrios owns an opponent-implied team total of 4.5 runs.
He also owns a K Prediction of just 6.2. Pitchers with comparable salaries, opponent implied team totals, and K Predictions have historically struggled, posting an average Plus/Minus of -4.17 on FanDuel. He’s a strong fade candidate in all formats.
Boyd might be the most intriguing of today’s stud pitchers. He was dominant early in the season, but he’s been dreadful since the start of June. He’s pitched to an ERA of 5.90 over his past over his past five starts, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of -5.21 on FanDuel.
His Statcast data from his past two starts is also concerning. He’s allowed opposing batters to post an average distance of 247 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 50%, all of which represent sizable increases when compared to his 12-month averages.
That said, Boyd has maintained elite strikeout numbers all season, posting a K/9 of 11.42. He’s also in one of the best strikeout spots of the day vs. the Chicago White Sox. Their projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of 28.0% against southpaws over the past 12 months, giving Boyd a strong K Prediction of 8.4.
Boyd obviously carries some risk, but he also has big upside. He’s an interesting buy-low target in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 73%.
Values
J.A. Happ hasn’t pitched in roughly two weeks, and he’s coming off one of his worst starts of the season in his last outing. He allowed 11 hits and eight earned runs over just four innings vs. the Houston Astros, resulting in -6.0 FanDuel points.
However, he’s in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Tampa Bay Rays. Their projected lineup has struggled against left-handers over the past 12 months, compiling a wOBA of just .286. They’ve also posted the second-highest strikeout rate against southpaws this season. Overall, he owns solid marks in K Prediction (6.8) and opponent implied team total (4.5) considering his salary of just $7,000 on DraftKings.
Anibal Sanchez is another pitcher with a strong matchup. He’s taking on the Miami Marlins, who have the second-lowest wRC+ and fifth-highest strikeout rate against right-handers this season. Unsurprisingly, that’s led to a lot of fantasy success for right-handed pitchers. They’ve averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.55 against the Marlins this season on DraftKings.
`Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: J.A. Happ
Sanchez owns solid marks across the board on today’s slate: 4.3 opponent implied team total, -183 moneyline odds, 7.1 K Prediction.
If you’re looking for a boom-or-bust option for GPPs, consider Jordan Lyles. He’s taking on the Chicago Cubs, and their projected lineup has posted a ridiculous 36.4% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Lyles is a competent strikeout pitcher – he’s averaged a K/9 of 9.09 this season – giving him an elite K Prediction of 9.6. Lyles’ opponent-implied team total of 5.0 makes him a risky option for cash games, but he has excellent upside at just $7,300 on FanDuel.
Fastballs
Brandon Woodruff: He’s a slight favorite on the road in Cincinnati and owns one of the top K Predictions of the day at 8.1. He’s also limited his past two opponents to an average distance of just 192 feet, resulting in a 15-day/12-month differential of -19 feet.
Reynaldo Lopez: He’s taking on the Detroit Tigers, which automatically puts him in fantasy consideration. Right-handers have averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.52 on DraftKings against the Tigers this season, and he’s dirt-cheap at just $5,600.
Hector Velazquez: The pitching options on the night slate are very weak outside of Ryu, which makes Velazquez in intriguing punt at SP2 on DraftKings. He likely won’t pitch more than five innings, but he’s priced at just $5,000 in a decent matchup vs. the Blue Jays.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the DraftKings main slate, the top five-man stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
- 1. Max Kepler (L)
- 2. Jorge Polanco (S)
- 3. Nelson Cruz (R)
- 5. C.J. Cron (R)
- 7. Jason Castro (L)
Total Salary: $22,200
The Twins are taking on the A’s, and they lead the slate with an implied team total of 5.1 runs. They’re facing right-hander Tanner Anderson, and the Twins have absolutely destroyed right-handed pitchers this season, ranking second in wRC+ against right-handers when playing on the road.
Anderson has also struggled mightily through his first 17.2 MLB innings this season. He’s pitched to a 7.13 ERA and 5.30 FIP, and he’s allowed 2.04 HRs per nine innings. No team in baseball has hit more HRs than the Twins this season, so they can do some damage in this matchup.
Digging deeper, Anderson has featured some of the most drastic splits in baseball over his limited playing time. He’s actually been really good against right-handed batters, limiting them to a .174 wOBA, but he’s been destroyed by left-handed batters. They’ve posted a .473 wOBA and have clubbed four HRs in just 7.1 innings.
That makes a guy like Castro a really intriguing member of this stack. He’s been phenomenal against right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .377 wOBA and .312 ISO, and he’s crushed the baseball over the past 15 days. Castro is very affordable at just $3,800 on DraftKings and should command lower ownership than most of his teammates.
Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nelson Cruz
On the FanDuel main slate, the top four-man stack belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
- 1. Ronald Acuna Jr. (R)
- 2. Dansby Swanson (R)
- 3. Freddie Freeman (L)
- 4. Josh Donaldson (R)
Total Salary: $15,400
The Braves are currently implied for 5.9 runs, which ranks second on the slate. They’re taking on Phillies right-hander Zach Eflin, who has been hit hard over the past 15 days. He’s allowed opposing batters to post a hard hit rate of 49%, which could come back to hurt him against the Braves. They rank ninth in wRC+ and sixth in ISO against right-handers this season.
Eflin has been worse against left-handed batters than right-handed batters this season, and the Braves employ one of the best lefties in the game in Freeman. He’s posted a .399 wOBA and .222 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months, along with a 153 wRC+ against right-handers this season.
Other Batters
Mike Trout is one of the best players in baseball history and he’s well on his way to another MVP award. You don’t need me to tell you that he’s an elite option for DFS, but he’s in a particularly good spot today vs. the Rangers. He gets to play in Arlington, which has been one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball this season, and he’s posted excellent Statcast marks over the past 15 days. He clubbed two HRs last night and has arguably the highest ceiling among all of today’s batters.
Jason Kipnis will be on the positive side of his batting splits today vs. Royals right-hander Homer Bailey, which makes him an appealing target at $3,800 on DraftKings. He’s posted a .367 wOBA and .205 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months, and a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +20 feet.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis. And if you’re looking to bet on sports in New Jersey, check out our how-to guide.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Twins OF Max Kepler (26)
Photo credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
