The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
FanDuel and DraftKings offers 11-game main slates at 1:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, three pitchers cost $10,000 or more:
- Justin Verlander (R), $12,500, HOU @ BAL
- Jacob deGrom (R), $11,700, NYM vs. WSH
- Luis Castillo (R), $10,800, CIN vs. CHI
Verlander has been dominant this season, pitching to a 28.7% K-BB rate. His high 34.1% strikeout rate has led to incredible fantasy consistency, especially over the past month, when he’s averaged a +11.91 FanDuel Plus/Minus with an 83% Consistency Rating.
He easily has the best matchup on the board against a projected Orioles lineup that has a 27% strikeout rate and subpar .307 wOBA over the past 12 months against right-handed pitchers. The Orioles also rank 23rd or worse in ISO and Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against righties this year.
Overall, the Astros have massive -365 moneyline odds, and Baltimore’s 3.4 implied run total is the second-lowest mark on the slate. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and moneyline odds have averaged a +5.24 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 72.8% Consistency Rating, per our Trends tool.
Verlander is probably the safest option on the slate.
deGrom is also a strong option, but his matchup against the Nationals isn’t quite as favorable as Verlander’s. The projected Nationals lineup has a middling 24.9% strikeout rate over the past 12 months against righties, and they rank 16th in wRC+ against them this season.
But deGrom is entering this game in excellent form, holding opposing hitters to a 198-foot average batted-ball distance, 86-mph exit velocity and 21% hard-hit rate. Furthermore, the Nationals’ 3.1 implied run total checks in as the lowest implied run total on Sunday’s main slate.
deGrom’s slate-high 7.9 K Prediction makes him a fine alternative to Verlander if you need salary savings, but Verlander will be a staple for me.
Castillo has had a strong 2019 campaign, pitching to a 3.56 xFIP with a 29.5% strikeout rate. He makes for an intriguing tournament play: The projected Cubs lineup has the fourth-highest strikeout rate (28.4%) on the day.
But Castillo can be a volatile option with his 10.8% walk rate this year, and the Cubs rank seventh in walk rate against right-handed pitchers. Since the Cubs own a 4.5 implied run total, and his matchup isn’t as favorable as deGrom’s or Verlander’s, Castillo’s ownership shouldn’t be too high in tournaments.
Values
Michael Foltynewicz is a solid value option on both sites, especially on DraftKings with his 83% Bargain Rating. He’s a good value on both sites, as he carries a top-two Projected Plus/Minus.
He draws an excellent matchup against a projected Marlins lineup that has a slate-high 30.1% strikeout rate to go along with a slate-low .258 wOBA. Moreover, the Marlins rank dead last in ISO and wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this year.
Fastballs
Chris Bassitt: He’s more viable on FanDuel with his 89% Bargain Rating if you’re looking to pivot off Foltynewicz. His metrics don’t jump off the page, but Bassitt has a respectable 22.4% strikeout rate, and the White Sox rank 28th in wRC+ against righties this season.
Masahiro Tanka: He’s been atrocious of late, but he could be worthy of a GPP dart throw in mass-multi entry tournaments at just $6,800 on FanDuel. The Blue Jays have some power in this lineup, but they also own a 28.8% strikeout rate.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top four-man DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Cincinnati Reds.
- 1. Nick Senzel (R)
- 2. Joey Votto (L)
- 3. Eugenio Suarez (R)
- 4. Aristides Aquino (R)
Total salary: $17,200
The Reds will square off against Jon Lester, who can be prone to blowups: Over his past two starts, he’s allowed 19 hits and 15 earned runs across nine innings. Overall, the Reds’ 5.1 implied run total doesn’t jump off the page, but it has increased 0.3 runs since lines were released.
Aquino has been absurd over the past two weeks, sporting a 266-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 63% hard-hit rate. Votto and Suarez both have excellent batted-ball data over the same time frame. Both hitters are sporting average distances over 232 feet along with exit velocities of at least 94 mph.
Suarez, in particular, has been on fire, averaging a +1.75 DrafKings Plus/Minus with a 70% Consistency Rating over his past 10 starts. Senzel isn’t in the best batted-ball form, but he’ll be on the positive side of his batting splits, possessing a .384 wOBA and .235 ISO against lefties over the past year.
One of the top FanDuel stacks for the main slate in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Houston Astros.
- 1. George Springer (R)
- 3. Michael Brantley (L)
- 4. Alex Bregman (R)
- 5. Yordan Alvarez (L)
Total salary: $16,600
The Astros face Asher Wojciechowski, who has struggled over his past two starts, allowing five home runs and nine earned runs across 8.2 innings. It’s a strong spot for the Astros: Their 6.8 implied run total leads the slate by 0.5 runs.
Over the past 12 months, this entire stack has destroyed right-handed pitchers. Overall, three of these four hitters possess wOBAs over .400 and ISOs over .251 against righties over that time frame. All of them are also in exceptional batted-ball form over the past two weeks.
Springer boasts a 238-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity and a 61% hard-hit rate, all of which exceed his 12-month averages. Additionally, Bregman owns a 259-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 55% hard-hit rate. Last but not least, Alvarez is sporting the highest average distance in the stack at 267 feet, which exceeds his 12-month average by +22 feet.
This stack is incredibly expensive, but it’s still rosterable if you opt for a cheaper pitcher like Foltynewicz.
Other Batters
Paul Goldschmidt has a nice 96% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. The matchup against the lefty will put him on the positive side of his splits, as he’s hit left-handers to the tune of a .363 wOBA and .250 ISO over the past 12 months.
Michael Chavis has an 84% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and is a nice form of cheap exposure to the Red Sox’s 6.3 implied run total. Chavis has shown exceptional power against left-handed pitchers, evidenced by his .231 ISO. His +2.29 Projected Plus/Minus is the second-highest mark among all hitters on FanDuel.
Shohei Ohtani is also a bargain on FanDuel, sporting an 84% Bargain Rating. He’s hit right-handed pitchers well over the past 12 months, possessing a .393 wOBA and .277 ISO against them. He’s also generated a 95-mph exit velocity over the past two weeks.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Justin Verlander
Photo credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports
