The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features an eight-game main slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET and a four-game afternoon slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
Two pitching options stand out above the rest on FanDuel:
- Justin Verlander (R) $11,300, HOU @ LAA
- Luis Castillo (R) $10,300, CIN vs. SF
Unfortunately, both guys pitch on the afternoon slate, so you’ll need to look elsewhere for the main slate.
Verlander has gotten off to a solid start this season. He’s posted a 2.45 ERA and 4-1 record through his first seven starts, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +3.30 on FanDuel.
That said, his advanced metrics are slightly concerning. His FIP of 3.75 is much higher than his traditional ERA, and his K/9 has decreased from 12.20 last season to 10.84 this year. He could be due for some regression.
He’s in a difficult spot today vs. the Los Angeles Angels. Their projected lineup has posted a .327 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months while striking out in just 17.7% of at-bats. Verlander’s resulting metrics are pretty pedestrian: 4.0 opponent implied team total, 6.4 K Prediction. Paying up for pitchers with comparable K Predictions and opponent implied totals has unsurprisingly been a poor idea, with those hurlers posting an average Plus/Minus of -3.56 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool). There are better options on today’s slate.
Castillo is one of those options. He’s been outstanding through his first 43.1 innings this season, pitching to a sparkling 1.45 ERA. He’s also managed a K/9 of 10.38, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +10.33 on FanDuel through his first seven starts.
He has a much friendlier matchup than Verlander today vs. the San Francisco Giants. Their projected lineup has been dreadful against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, posting a .249 wOBA and 26.1% strikeout rate, and their implied team total of 3.5 runs is the lowest mark on the slate. Castillo’s K Prediction of 7.2 also ranks third on the slate.
Castillo combines his solid traditional metrics with excellent Statcast data from his past three starts. He’s limited opposing batters to an average distance of 192 feet, giving him a differential of -10 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable distance differentials, opponent implied team totals and K Predictions have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.60 on FanDuel.
Values
Kenta Maeda has struggled in his past two starts, allowing 14 hits and six earned runs over just nine total innings. That said, his Statcast data from those outings is actually pretty good. He’s limited opposing batters to an average exit velocity of 87 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 32%, both of which are superior to his 12-month averages. He’s a prime candidate for positive regression.
That could start today vs. the San Diego Padres. Their projected lineup has struggled against southpaws over the past 12 months, posting a .282 wOBA and 24.5% strikeout rate. Their resulting implied team total of 3.7 runs is the second-lowest mark on the afternoon slate, while Maeda’s K Prediction of 7.9 ranks first.
The pitching options on the main slate are pretty thin, but Zach Eflin stands out as an excellent value on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $7,600, resulting in a position-high Bargain Rating of 96%.
Eflin is far from a strikeout artist – he’s posted a K/9 of 6.69 through his first six starts this season – but he has more upside than usual today vs. the Washington Nationals. Their projected lineup has whiffed in 29.2% of at-bats vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, which is the second-worst splits-adjusted mark on the slate. They’ve also posted a wOBA of just .286 over the same time frame, giving Eflin solid marks across the board with his 3.8 opponent implied team total, -158 moneyline odds and 6.5 K Prediction.
Unfortunately, the weather in Washington is a major concern. The current forecast calls for a 73% chance of precipitation at game time, which makes Eflin tough to trust in cash games.
Julio Teheran figures to be the highest-owned option on the main slate. He has a wonderful matchup vs. the Miami Marlins, who have been the lowest scoring team in baseball this season. They’ve averaged just 2.81 runs per game, which is more than half a run lower than any other team has scored this year. Unsurprisingly, Teheran leads the main slate with an opponent implied team total of 3.7 runs.
He has allowed some loud contact over his past two starts — opposing batters have posted an average exit velocity of 97 miles per hour and a hard hit rate of 45% — but the Marlins don’t seem like the type of team to take advantage of that.
Fastballs
Jordan Lyles: He has arguably the most upside on the main slate given his matchup vs. the Oakland A’s. Their projected lineup has struck out in 31.1% of at-bats vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, and Lyles’ K Prediction of 7.9 ranks first on the slate.
Spencer Turnbull: He sounds more like a general from the American Revolution than a pitcher, but he’s allowed just one earned run over his past 17 innings. He has some appeal given his plus matchup vs. the Royals.
Rick Porcello: He’s the largest favorite on the main slate at -180 despite having a relatively pedestrian opponent implied total of 4.3 runs. Comparable favorites have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.84 on FanDuel.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Detroit Tigers:
- 1. Jeimer Candelario (S)
- 2. Nick Castellanos (R)
- 3. Miguel Cabrera (R)
- 6. Gordon Beckham (R)
Total Salary: $12,000
You don’t really need to pay down on offense today given the lack of stud pitchers, but the Tigers will allow you to roster virtually whoever you want with the rest of your lineup. They’re implied for 4.5 runs today vs. Royals right-hander Brad Keller, who has pitched to a mediocre 4.56 FIP through his first 42.0 innings. He’s struggled in particular in righty-righty matchups this season, allowing right-handed batters to post a .345 wOBA and .481 slugging percentage. That bodes well for Castellanos, Cabrera, and Beckham.
The Tigers also enter this contest in elite recent form. The stacked batters have collectively smoked the ball over the past 15 days, with each guy exceeding his 12-month average distance by at least 17 feet. Candelario and Cabrera in particular have crushed the baseball, posting 15-day/12-month distance differentials of +40 feet and +35 feet respectively.
On the afternoon slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack belongs to the Houston Astros:
- 1. George Springer (R)
- 3. Alex Bregman (R)
- 4. Michael Brantley (L)
- 6. Josh Reddick (L)
- 8. Tyler White (R)
Total Salary: $22,400
The Astros are implied for a whopping 6.1 runs vs. Angels right-hander Matt Harvey, which is the top mark on today’s slate. That will obviously make them a popular team, but stacking them in the above manner should increase your chances of having a contrarian lineup. Avoiding Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa in particular should result in lower ownership.
Harvey was a dominant pitcher at one point in his career, but a string of injuries has made him a shell of his former self. He’s struggled mightily so far this season, posting a 6.54 ERA and 5.97 K/9. Any time your ERA is higher than your K/9, you’re in serious trouble.
The Astros are also collectively raking at the moment, with each of the stacked batters posting a distance differential of at least +10 feet over the past 15 days. White leads the team with a massive 275-foot average distance and 61% hard hit rate, which makes him an appealing option at $3,500 despite hitting in the No. 8 spot in the order.
Other Batters
Joey Votto has struggled over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of -1.91 on DraftKings, but he has a lot working in his favor on today’s slate. For starters, he’s made good contact over that time frame, exceeding his 12-month averages in distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate. He’s also expected to occupy the leadoff spot in the order and will be on the positive side of his batting splits vs. Giants right-hander Jeff Samardzija. He’s simply too cheap at $3,700 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 94%.
Christian Yelich could be a bit overlooked on today’s slate. He’s in a lefty-lefty matchup vs. Jason Vargas, which is an automatic disqualifier for some DFS players. That said, Yelich has still crushed lefties over the past 12 months, posting a .426 wOBA and .292 ISO, and Vargas has pitched to a 6.13 FIP through his first 20.1 innings this season. This is a deceptive smash spot.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Brewers OF Christian Yelich (22)
Photo credit: Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports
