The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a split-slate. Both sites are offering a four-game afternoon slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET and a 10-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate is relatively light on stud pitchers. Only two are priced above $10,000 on DraftKings:
- Patrick Corbin (L) $10,400, WSH @ PHI
- Carlos Carrasco (R) $10,200, CLE vs. SEA
Corbin headlines the main slate, and he’s been up-and-down to begin his Nationals’ tenure. He was roughed up in his last start, allowing six earned runs over five innings, but he did post a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in each of his prior four outings. Overall, his ERA sits at 3.58 on the season.
His advanced metrics from his past two starts are also solid. He’s limited opponents to a hard-hit rate of just 17%, which represents a decrease of 24% when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and hard hit differentials have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.57 on DraftKings (per our Trends tool).
Unfortunately, he’s in a brutal spot against the Phillies, whose projected lineup has fared well against left-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .316 wOBA. As a result, Corbin’s Vegas marks are pretty pedestrian: 4.4 opponent implied team total, +108 moneyline odds. He’s a better target on FanDuel, where his $9,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%, but he’s still best used for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Carrasco is only available on the afternoon slate, and he’s looking to rebound after a rough start to his season. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -8.79 on FanDuel through his first six starts, thanks mostly to an ERA of 5.86.
That said, his advanced numbers suggest he’s going to turn things around. His 2.90 FIP is way lower than his traditional ERA, and he’s posted a career-best K/9 of 13.34 through his first 27.2 innings. He’s also limited his past two opponents to a hard hit rate of just 21%. If he continues to strikeout batters at an elite level and gets some better luck on balls in play, better fantasy results will follow.
Credit: Peter G. Aiken/USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Carlos Carrasco
Carrasco an appealing option against the Mariners. His opponent implied team total of 3.5 runs is the second-lowest mark on the slate, while his moneyline odds of -195 rank first. He also owns a K Prediction of 8.3, and pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have historically posted a Plus/Minus of +4.73 on FanDuel.
Values
Mike Soroka has been phenomenal to start the season, pitching to a 1.62 ERA and 11.34 K/9 through his first three outings. He’s a highly-touted prospect, and his 2.04 FIP suggests he’s been as good as his traditional numbers indicate.
He’s also in one of the best spots of the day. The Marlins’ projected lineup has been putrid against right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .280 wOBA and 26.6% strikeout rate. Their resulting implied team total of 3.3 runs is the lowest mark of the day.
Soroka is a particularly strong value at $8,900 on DraftKings. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and opponent implied team totals have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.42.
Rich Hill might be the most appealing of all of Saturday’s pitchers. He’s a strong strikeout pitcher, posting a K/9 of 10.03 over the past 12 months, and he has an elite matchup against the Padres. Their projected lineup has whiffed in 28.9% of at bats against southpaws over the past 12 months, giving Hill a slate-best K Prediction of 8.5.
He combines his excellent strikeout upside with strong Statcast marks from his past two starts. He limited opposing batters to an average distance of just 183 feet, which represents a decrease of -25 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Pitchers with comparable distance differentials and K Predictions have historically dominated, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.68 on DraftKings.
Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Rich Hill
Hill’s Vegas marks are also solid: His opponent implied team total of 3.7 runs is the third lowest mark on the slate. He’s an excellent option in all formats.
Fastballs
Zach Wheeler: He struggled a bit in his last start but had posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in each of his three previous outings. He’s a talented pitcher — he posted a 1.68 ERA over the second-half last season — and his difficult matchup against the Brewers should result in reduced ownership.
Eduardo Rodriguez: He’s posted a strong 10.19 K/9 over the past 12 months and has a great matchup against the White Sox. Their projected lineup has posted a .299 wOBA and 27.4% strikeout rate against southpaws over the past 12 months, but Rodriguez’s upside is capped by the fact that he rarely pitches more than six innings.
Tanner Roark: He’s probably the safest option if you’re looking to pay down at SP2 on DraftKings given his matchup against the Giants. That said, the weather could be an issue: The current forecast calls for a 51% chance of precipitation.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Cleveland Indians:
- 1. Francisco Lindor (S)
- 3. Jose Ramirez (S)
- 4. Carlos Santana (S)
- 5. Carlos Gonzalez (L)
- 6. Jason Kipnis (L)
Total salary: $21,800
This Indians’ lineup isn’t exactly the same force it’s been in previous seasons. Santana, Gonzalez and Kipnis have all been All-Star level players in the past, but all three are past their prime.
Still, they have a great matchup against Mariners’ right-hander Mike Leake. He’s an extremely pedestrian pitcher, posting a 4.98 ERA and 6.00 FIP through his first six starts this season. The Indians’ resulting implied team total of 5.0 runs is the top mark on the afternoon slate. All five batters will also have the splits advantage in this contest.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays:
- 1. Brandon Lowe (L)
- 2. Tommy Pham (R)
- 3. Ji-Man Choi (L)
- 8. Mike Zunino (R)
Total salary: $12,900
FanDuel continues to disrespect the Rays. They’re implied for 5.5 runs — the third-highest mark on the main slate — yet the above stack will only cost you $12,900. The result is a slate-best Team Value Rating of 86.
Zunino in particular stands out as a strong value. He’s priced at just $2,200, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%. He’s expected to occupy the eighth spot in the order, but Zunino is not a typical No. 8 hitter. He has plenty of pop against right-handed pitchers, evidenced by an ISO of .206 over the past 12 months.
He also enters this contest in good recent form, outperforming his 12-month marks in average distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. He’ll likely command minimal ownership — he’s currently projected for just 2-4% — which makes him an appealing differentiator for Rays stacks.
Other Batters
Coors Field is available on the main slate, and the Rockies unsurprisingly own the highest implied team total of the day at 5.9 runs.
Trevor Story in particular stands out as an elite option. He’s on the wrong side of his splits against Diamondbacks’ right-hander Luke Weaver, but Story has shown some improvement against right-handers this season. He’s already hit seven HRs against right-handers through his first 33 games and has increased his ISO to .280 over that span.
Story has also smoked the ball over the past 15 days, resulting in a distance differential of +23 feet. He has huge upside.
Jeimer Candelario will occupy the leadoff spot for the Tigers in a strong matchup against Homer Bailey. Candelario has posted a distance differential of +24 feet over his past 10 games, and leadoff batters with comparable distance differentials have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.11 on DraftKings. He’s a strong value option at just $3,600.
Alex Bregman is simply too cheap at $4,300 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%. He leads all batters on the slate with 16 Pro Trends, and batters with a comparable number of Pro Trends have posted a Plus/Minus of +3.57 over the past four seasons. The Astros’ implied team total of 5.6 runs also ranks second on the slate. He’s a no-brainer option for cash games.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Astros 3B Alex Bregman (2)
Photo credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
