The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday’s MLB DFS slate differs by site. Both sites feature six-game main slates at 7:15 p.m. ET, but DraftKings features a nine-game early slate at 2:05 p.m. ET while FanDuel features a six-game early slate at 4:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers on today’s slates are priced at $10,000 or higher on FanDuel:
- Max Scherzer (R) $11,700, WSH @ SD
- Lucas Giolito (R) $11,400, CWS @ KC
- Rich Hill (L) $10,000, LAD @ SF
Scherzer has posted just a 3-5 record through his first 13 starts, but he’s arguably putting together the best season of his illustrious career. His 3.06 ERA is high for him, but his 2.13 FIP suggests he’s been really unlucky. Batters have hit .356 against him when they’ve managed to put the ball in play, which just screams regression moving forward. For comparison, batters posted a BABIP of .268 or less vs. Scherzer in each of the past four seasons. His K/9 of 12.34 would also represent a new career high, while his 3.4 wins above replacement is the top mark among pitchers by a significant margin (per Fangraphs).
He has a wonderful matchup today vs. the San Diego Padres. Their projected lineup has posted a 28.1% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, which is the third-highest splits-adjusted mark on the slate. That should spell trouble against Scherzer, who owns a K Prediction of 9.9. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions have averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.08 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Scherzer also owns some of the best Vegas data on the slate. His opponent implied team total of 3.3 runs ranks first, while his moneyline odds of -163 rank fourth. He should also benefit from facing the Padres in San Diego, which has historically been a pitcher-friendly venue. His Park Factor of 83 is one of the better marks on the slate. Add it all up, and Scherzer is an elite option in all formats.
If the MLB had a most improved player award, Giolito would be the frontrunner at the moment. He was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last season, posting a 6.13 ERA, but he’s been one of the best in 2019. He’s improved his ERA to 2.54, and his advanced metrics suggest his production hasn’t been fluky. He was once considered the top pitching prospect in baseball, and it appears he’s finally put it all together.
That said, it’s hard to justify paying $11,400 for him today vs. the Kansas City Royals. They’re currently implied for 4.1 runs, and Giolito is just a small -125 favorite. The Royals have also been a difficult team to strikeout over the past 12 months, resulting in a K Prediction of just 6.2. Giolito is being priced like a true stud at this point, but his metrics don’t seem to support that salary. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data, K Predictions and salaries have historically posted a Plus/Minus of -5.26 on FanDuel.
Hill has been wonderful over his past four starts, allowing just three earned runs while striking out 32 batters over 25 innings. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each of those starts and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +16.82.
He’s taking on the San Francisco Giants today, who may have the worst offense in baseball this season. They rank 27th in terms of runs per game, but their numbers vs. left-handed pitchers are absolutely anemic. Their projected lineup has posted a .229 wOBA against southpaws over the past 12 months, and they rank dead last in wRC+ vs. left-handers this season. They’re implied for just 3.5 runs today, which is the third-lowest mark on the slate.
Hill is particularly appealing on FanDuel, where his $10,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%.
Values
Framber Valdez will make his first start of the season today for the Houston Astros. It’s always risky trusting bullpen guys who move to the starting rotation – particularly with teams employing “openers” on a more frequent basis – but Valdez isn’t your traditional bullpen guy. He made 20 starts last season between AA, AAA and the majors, and he threw four scoreless innings in his most recent appearance. Walks can be an issue for him – he owns a BB/9 of 4.50 this season – but the rest of his metrics look really solid. Overall, he’s posted a 3.12 ERA and 3.65 FIP through 26.0 innings in 2019.
He’s getting a lot of respect from Vegas for his matchup vs. the Baltimore Orioles. They’re currently implied for just 3.4 runs, which is the second-lowest mark on the slate. Valdez is also a -221 favorite, and it’s rare to see a pitcher with comparable Vegas data at such a modest price tag. He’s just $7,400 on DraftKings, making him a strong choice at SP2. He leads all pitchers on the early slate with nine Pro Trends.
Julio Teheran is taking on the Miami Marlins, which automatically puts him on the DFS radar. The Marlins have been an elite team to target this season, with right-handed pitchers averaging a Plus/Minus of +2.41 against them in 2019.
Teheran also enters this contest in strong recent form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 192 feet, exit velocity of 87 miles per hour and hard hit rate of 32%, all three of which represent decreases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Fastballs
Stephen Matz: He has a scary matchup on paper vs. the Colorado Rockies, who have the reputation of destroying left-handed pitching. That said, they rank just 27th in wRC+ against southpaws on the road, while their strikeout rate of 30.4% ranks second. He’s one of the best values at pitcher on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 86%.
Jack Flaherty: No one on the slate can match Scherzer in terms of strikeout upside, but Flaherty comes the closest. He’s posted a K/9 of 10.87 over the past 12 months, and his K Prediction of 7.7 vs. the Chicago Cubs ranks second among today’s pitchers.
Kyle Gibson: His K Prediction of 7.3 is the top mark on the early slate, and he has an appealing matchup vs. the Tigers. There’s currently no Vegas information available for that contest – the Tigers have yet to announce a starting pitcher – but his opponent implied team total should also be among the best on the slate.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Oakland A’s:
- 1. Marcus Semien (R)
- 4. Khris Davis (R)
- 5. Stephen Piscotty (R)
- 6. Matt Olson (L)
- 7. Chad Pinder (R)
Total Salary: $21,900
The A’s are currently implied for 5.8 runs, which is the top mark on the early slate. They benefit from getting to play at the Great American Ballpark in Arlington, which is typically home to some of the most ideal hitting conditions in baseball. The current weather forecast calls for a temperature of 89 degrees at game time, resulting in a Weather Rating of 80.
They’re squaring off with Rangers left-hander Joe Palumbo, who will be making his big-league debut. He’s never pitched above AA, so this will be a huge step up in weight class. The A’s rank third in wRC+ against left-handers this season.
Davis in particular stands out. He’s crushed the ball since coming off the disabled list earlier this week, posting an average distance of 256 feet, exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 57% over his past six games. Davis has also smoked left-handers this season, posting a wRC+ of 172 and ISO of .367.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- 1. Joc Pederson (L)
- 2. Max Muncy (L)
- 3. Justin Turner (R)
- 6. Alex Verdugo (L)
Total Salary: $13,600
Interestingly enough, the A’s also have the highest implied team total on the main slate because they’re playing a doubleheader. That said, the Dodgers check in just behind them at 5.1 runs.
They’re taking on Giants right-hander Jeff Samardzija, which means we will likely see their lineup filled primarily with left-handed bats. The Dodgers have crushed right-handed pitchers this season, ranking tied for first with a 120 wRC+. Pederson and Muncy own two of the highest ceiling projections in our Models despite ranking outside the top 10 in terms of salary.
Fastballs
Domingo Santana checks a lot of boxes on today’s slate. He’s expected to bat second for the Mariners and will own the splits advantage vs. Angels left-hander Dillon Peters. Santana has crushed left-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .364 wOBA and .303 ISO. He also enters this contest in elite recent Statcast form, averaging a batted ball distance of 262 feet, exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 52% over his past 13 games.
This could be a nice time to buy low on Bryce Harper. He’s been priced down to $4,500 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%. He hasn’t been great from a fantasy perspective recently, but that belies some strong recent Statcast marks: 247-foot average distance, 97 mile per hour exit velocity, 46% hard hit rate. He also has a great matchup vs. Tanner Roark, who has surrendered a .403 wOBA to left-handed batters this season.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Phillies OF Bryce Harper (34)
Photo credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports
