The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers on today’s slate stand out above the rest on FanDuel:
- Chris Sale (L) $11,800, BOS vs. TEX
- Hyun-jin Ryu (L) $10,700, LAD @ LAA
- Charlie Morton (R) $10,500, TB vs. OAK
I think it’s safe to say that Sale has found his form recently after a rough start to the season. He’s pitched to a 2.28 ERA and 1.84 FIP over his past seven starts, and he’s recorded double-digit strikeouts in six of them. He’s unsurprisingly been an elite fantasy asset over that span, posting an average Plus/Minus of +12.94 on FanDuel.
He’s in a great spot against the Rangers, whose offense has struggled on the road vs. southpaws this season, ranking just 22nd in wRC+. They’ve also posted a league-worst 31.5% strikeout rate in that situation. As a result, Sale owns dominant marks across the board: 2.9 opponent implied team total, -236 moneyline odds and 9.4 K Prediction. Pitchers with comparable marks have historically dominated, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.00 on FanDuel (per our Trends tool).
His Statcast data from his past two starts is also strong. He’s limited opposing batters to an average distance of 180 feet, which represents a decrease of 25 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
The only concern with Sale is the weather. The current forecast calls for a 45% chance of precipitation at game time, so this will be an important situation to monitor prior to lineup lock.
Ryu is has put together a remarkable stretch of pitching recently. He’s allowed just two earned runs over his past 35.2 innings pitched and has kept his opponent off the scoreboard in four of his past five starts.
He’s done it by via an elite batted ball profile. He’s posted an average distance of 166 feet, exit velocity of 88 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 30% over his past two starts, all three of which represent decreases when compared to his 12-month averages. He’s also induced ground balls at a 65% clip, which is the top mark among today’s starters.
Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Hyun-Jin Ryu
Unfortunately, he’s in a tough spot against the Angels. Their projected lineup has posted a .350 wOBA and 19.7% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months. The low strikeout rate is particularly concerning. Ryu isn’t a strikeout pitcher to begin with — he’s posted a K/9 of 8.46 over the past 12 months — so his K Prediction of 5.4 is pretty mediocre. His Vegas data is also a notch below the other stud pitcher’s, which makes him tough to roster.
If the weather in Boston remains an issue, Morton could become the chalk starter for cash games. He’s been phenomenal this season, pitching to a 2.30 ERA and 11.02 K/9 through his first 13 starts.
He’s getting a lot of respect from Vegas for his matchup vs. the A’s. He owns an opponent implied team total of 3.6 runs and moneyline odds of -221, both of which trail only Sale’s on the slate. He’s underpriced on DraftKings at $9,900, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 80%.
Value
German Marquez is one of the best pure values on FanDuel, where his $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%. He’s pitching at home, which is always scary, but he has nice upside against the Cubs. Their projected lineup has posted a 26.7% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Marquez’s K Prediction of 7.7 ranks second on the slate.
His Vegas data is downright frightening — he owns an opponent implied team total of 5.5 runs — but that could work in your favor. It will likely result in lower ownership for GPPs, which is always appealing.
The pitching options are kind of thin outside of the top tier, but Jared Eickhoff provides an interesting combination of strikeout upside and recent Statcast data. He’s pitched to a K/9 of 8.90 over the past 12 months and owns a K Prediction of 7.3 against the Diamondbacks. He’s also limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 211 feet, which represents a decrease of 14 when compared to his 12 month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and distance differentials have been nice investments, providing an average Plus/Minus of +2.24 on DraftKings.
He’s dirt-cheap at $7,100, making him a nice target at SP2.
Fastballs
Anibal Sanchez: He has a nice matchup against the White Sox, whose projected lineup has posted a .301 wOBA and 26.0% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. His 6.6 K Prediction and -153 moneyline odds both rank fifth on the slate.
Sandy Alcanatara: He’s been excellent over his past two starts, allowing just one earned run over 13 innings pitched. He doesn’t provide much strikeout upside, but he doesn’t need to at just $6,900 on DraftKings.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- 1. Joc Pederson (L)
- 2. Max Muncy (L)
- 3. Justin Turner (R)
- 4. Cody Bellinger (L)
- 5. Corey Seager (L)
Total salary: $21,700
The Dodgers begin their “Freeway Series” vs. the Angels today, and the Dodgers are currently implied for 5.2 runs. Their top stack seems underpriced on DraftKings, with each of the stacked batters owning a Bargain Rating of at least 75%. Their Team Value Rating of 77 is one of the top marks on DraftKings, making them a strong team to pair with an expensive pitcher.
They’re taking on Angels right-hander Griffin Canning, who has been impressive in his first big league season. That said, his FIP is nearly a full run higher than his ERA, which means he’s likely due for some regression moving forward. He’s benefited from a minuscule .232 BABIP, which is obviously unsustainable.
He has his work cut out for him vs. the Dodgers, who have destroyed right-handed pitching this season. They’ve posted a wRC+ of 120, which ranks first in the league. Each of the stacked batters own a wOBA of at least .385 vs. right-handers over the past 12 months. They can do a lot of damage in this matchup.
USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cody Bellinger
The Dodgers also own the top four-man FanDuel stack, so let’s focus on the Nationals instead:
- 3. Anthony Rendon (R)
- 4. Juan Soto (L)
- 5. Howie Kendrick (R)
- 8. Brian Dozier (R)
Total salary: $13,900
The Nationals’ implied team total of 5.8 runs ranks second on today’s slate, which will likely make them a popular target. That said, stacking them in the above 3-4-5-8 manner should increase your chances of having a unique lineup.
They’re taking on White Sox right-hander Odrisamer Despaigne, who will be making just his first start at the MLB level this season. He was dreadful in five MLB starts last season, posting a 6.69 ERA.
Dozier has also crushed the baseball over the past 15 days. He’s posted an average distance of 259 feet, exit velocity of 94 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 54%, all three of which represent increases when compared to his 12-month averages. He’s expected to bat eighth in the lineup, but Dozier is much more capable that the average bottom of the order batter.
Other Batters
It’s hard to look past Kyle Schwarber. He’s priced at $4,500 on DraftKings and $3,800 on FanDuel and is expected to bat first for the Cubs at Coors Field. He’s fared well against right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .352 wOBA and .239 ISO, and he’s crushed the baseball over the past 15 days.
Bryce Harper looks like one of the best values of the day on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $4,400, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%. The Phillies are implied for 5.1 runs vs. Diamondbacks right-hander Taylor Clarke, and Harper has outperformed his 12-month averages in distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate over his past 12 games. This is a nice opportunity to buy low him.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Red Sox SP Chris Sale (41)
Photo credit: Amy Kontras-USA TODAY Sports
