The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a five-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Stud
This is one of the least impressive pitching slates we’ve seen all season. Only one starter owns a salary above $9,200 on DraftKings:
- Mike Minor (L) $10,500, TEX vs. LAA
Minor is the most expensive pitcher on today’s slate, and he’s put together a solid start to his 2019 season. He’s posted an 8-4 record and 2.40 ERA, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +6.03 on DraftKings through his first 17 starts.
That said, he’s undoubtedly been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball. Opposing batters have managed just a .268 batting average on balls in play, and only 10.5% of their fly balls have turned into home runs. Minor has also stranded 88.3% of opposing baserunners, which is the second-highest mark in the league. Overall, his 4.31 xFIP is nearly two full runs higher than his traditional ERA. He’s a prime regression candidate moving forward.
Perhaps that will start today against the Angels, whose projected lineup has performed well against left-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .346 wOBA, and they’re currently implied for 4.9 runs.
They also own the lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers this season, and Minor is not exactly a strikeout pitcher to begin with. He’s posted a K/9 of 8.79 this season, and his K Prediction of 5.3 is extremely low considering his price tag. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions have averaged a Plus/Minus of -2.20 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mike Minor
Minor is a risky pitcher who doesn’t possess much upside in this matchup. Don’t mistake his expensive salary for safety.
Value
The Baltimore Orioles own the lowest implied team total of the day at just 3.4 runs, which makes the pitching staff for the Rays an interesting target. Ryne Stanek will get the start, but he won’t pitch more than an inning or two. Ryan Yarbrough is expected to see the majority of innings after Stanek exits, which makes him the more valuable pitcher for DFS.
Yarbrough is reasonably priced at $6,500 on DraftKings, and pitchers with comparable salaries and opponent implied team totals have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.78. The fact that he’ll likely enter the game in the second or third inning also makes him more likely to factor into the decision, and the Rays are the largest favorites on the slate at -259. He’s one of the safest options for cash games.
Tyler Mahle is in a boom-or-bust spot against the Brewers. Their lineup can do some damage against right-handed pitchers, and they’re currently implied for 5.0 runs. That said, they’ve also been very strikeout prone. Their projected lineup has posted a 35.7% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, which is the worst splits-adjusted mark on the slate. Mahle has averaged a respectable K/9 of 8.83 over the past 12 months, giving him a strong 8.6 K Prediction in this matchup.
Mahle also gets to pitch at home today, which has been a big boost for him this season. He’s pitched to a 2.96 ERA in Cincinnati, compared to a 5.04 ERA on the road. He’s also averaged 10.21 strikeouts per nine innings over 27.1 innings at the Great American Ballpark while limiting opposing batters to a .194 batting average.
He currently owns the highest median and ceiling projections in our MLB Models, and his $7,000 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 73%.
Fastballs
Logan Allen: He has an excellent matchup against the Giants, whose projected lineup has posted an anemic .239 wOBA against southpaws over the past 12 months. Unfortunately, Allen possesses very little strikeout upside in this matchup — he owns a K Prediction of just 3.9 — which decreases his appeal for GPPs.
Jeff Samardzija: He’s opposing Allen in San Diego and is a solid +152 underdog, but his opponent implied team total of 4.6 runs is tied for the fourth lowest mark on the slate. Right-handers have fared well against the Padres this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +1.78 on FanDuel.
Adrian Houser: He could be a cheap source of strikeouts on DraftKings at just $5,800. He owns a K Prediction of 7.6, and pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.41.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Texas Rangers:
- 1. Delino DeShields Jr. (R)
- 2. Danny Santana (S)
- 3. Elvis Andrus (R)
- 4. Joey Gallo (L)
- 6. Asdrubal Cabrera (S)
Total Salary: $22,800
The Rangers lead the slate with an implied team total of 5.8 runs, and their top stack is pretty affordable at just $22,800. Salary shouldn’t be particularly important today with no true stud pitchers to pay up for, but it’s still nice to feel like you’re getting value from your stack. Andrus leads the team with a Bargain Rating of 82% on DraftKings.
They’re taking on Rangers left-hander Jose Suarez, who has been dreadful through his first 21.0 innings. He’s pitched to a 5.57 ERA and 6.39 FIP, and he’s allowed 2.57 HRs per nine innings. You can’t win a GPP without racking up a bunch of HRs, and the Rangers are in a great spot for that vs. Suarez.
Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joey Gallo
Gallo will be on the wrong side of his batting splits, but he still has immense upside in this matchup. He’s posted a .432 wOBA and .414 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months, and Suarez has allowed two HRs to left-handed batters over just 8.1 innings pitched. Gallo has absolutely destroyed left-handers at home this season as well, posting a ridiculous 282 wRC+ and .640 ISO.
The Rangers also own the top stack on FanDuel, so lets focus on the Milwaukee Brewers instead:
- 1. Yasmani Grandal (S)
- 2. Christian Yelich (L)
- 3. Mike Moustakas (L)
- 5. Eric Thames (L)
Total Salary: $14,900
The Brewers will be a slightly more contrarian target on today’s slate. Their implied team total of 5.0 runs is merely tied for fourth, but their top stack looks like an excellent value on FanDuel. Each of the four batters owns a Bargain Rating of at least 61%, highlighted by Thames’ mark of 99%.
They’re taking on Mahle, and each of the stacked batters will have the splits advantage against him. Mahle has struggled mightily against left-handed batters this season, allowing them to post a .372 wOBA. All four of the stacked batters have posted an ISO of at least .249 against right-handers over the past 12 months, so they can do some damage in this matchup.
Grandal is particularly intriguing. He’s expected to occupy the leadoff spot in the leadoff, which is extremely rare for a catcher. Historically, catchers batting first in the lineup with a comparable implied team total have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.35 on FanDuel. Grandal has also swung the bat well over the past 15 days, posting an average distance of 245 feet. That represents an increase of +20 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
Other Batters
It’s an easy day to pay up for hitting, so Mike Trout definitely deserves some consideration. He’s been slightly worse against left-handers than right-handers over the past 12 months, but he should benefit from getting to play in Arlington. Globe Life Park has historically provided batters with the second-highest average Plus/Minus on FanDuel during the months of June and July. He also enters this contest in good recent form, outperforming his 12-month averages in distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate over the past 15 days.
Joey Votto is another player who has smoked the ball recently. His average distance of 260 feet represents an increase of +30 feet when compared to his 12-month average, and batters with comparable increases have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.16 on FanDuel. He’s still priced down at just $3,300, making him one of the better pure values on the slate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis. And if you’re looking to bet on sports in New Jersey, check out our how-to guide.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Rays P Ryan Yarbrough (48)
Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
