The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
One pitcher on today’s slate stands out in his own tier on FanDuel:
- Sonny Gray (R) $11,300, CIN @ MIA
Gray struggled in his 1.5 years with the Yankees, but he’s revitalized his career in Cincinnati. He’s pitched to a 2.92 ERA and 3.39 FIP while increasing his K/9 to a career-best 10.64. He’s been a dominant fantasy asset over his past 10 starts, posting an average Plus/Minus of +14.54 on FanDuel.
Gray is in one of the best possible spots today vs. the Marlins, whose offense has struggled all season, ranking 29th in runs per game — and they just had to put one of their lone offensive bright spots in Brian Anderson on the Injured List. Their projected lineup has struggled to a .294 wOBA and 28.9% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Unsurprisingly, Gray ranks among the leaders in a variety of pitching metrics. His opponent implied team total of 3.4 runs ranks first on the slate, while his 7.0 K Prediction and -154 moneyline odds rank second. Historically, pitchers with comparable metrics in all three categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.85 on FanDuel (per our Trends tool).
The only red flag with Gray is his recent Statcast data. His past two opponents have posted an average distance of 220 feet, which represents an increase of +16 feet when compared to his 12-month average. The result is a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of -78, which suggests he’s gotten lucky with his fantasy results over that time frame.
AP Photo/David Kohl. Pictured: Sonny Gray
Gray is also projected for approximately 40% ownership in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), so some fade consideration in that format isn’t out of the question.
Values
J.A. Happ is an excellent pivot for those who are looking to pay down at pitcher. He’s priced at just $7,100 on DraftKings and $6,500 on FanDuel, and he’s in a strong spot vs. the Mariners. Their projected lineup has been futile against left-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .286 wOBA and 28.7% strikeout rate. Happ’s opponent implied team total of 3.9 runs is tied for second on the slate, while his -215 moneyline odds rank first.
Unlike Gray, Happ also enters this contest in elite recent batted ball form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 194 feet, exit velocity of 89 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 34%, all of which represent decreases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Dustin May is an elite value on FanDuel, where his $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He hasn’t exactly stood out at the MLB level, pitching to a 4.26 ERA and 7.11 K/9, but he does benefit from an excellent matchup vs. the San Diego Padres. They rank just 25th in wRC+ while posting the second-highest strikeout rate against right-handers over the second half of the season. May’s opponent implied team total of 3.9 runs is tied with Happ for the second-best mark on the slate, and he’s also a -146 favorite.
May should also benefit from getting to face the Padres in San Diego. It results in a Park Factor of 80, and ESPN has graded Petco as the most pitcher-friendly venue in baseball this season.
Fastballs
Jason Vargas: He doesn’t offer much upside given his K/9 of 7.06 this season, but he possesses some of the best recent Statcast data on the slate. He also has an excellent matchup vs. the Pirates, who rank dead last in wRC+ against left-handers since the All-Star break.
Pablo Lopez: He’s an underdog vs. Gray and the Reds, but his opponent implied team total of 4.2 runs is still tied for fourth on the slate. He’s a solid pitcher, posting a 3.56 FIP this season, and his $7,400 salary on DraftKings results in a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Joe Musgrove: He’s another pitcher worth considering on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 90%. He has a scary matchup vs. the Phillies, but he does own a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -15 feet and hard hit differential of -12 percentage points.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
- 1. Jerrod Dyson (L)
- 2. Ketel Marte (S)
- 3. Eduardo Escobar (S)
- 5. Jake Lamb (L)
- 6. Josh Rojas (L)
Total Salary: $19,900
The Diamondbacks are an interesting team on today’s slate. Their implied team total of 4.6 runs doesn’t jump off the page, but they’re a very easy team to fit into your lineups. Lamb and Rojas in particular will set you back just $5,600 combined, and both players own a Bargain Rating of at least 94%.
They’re taking on Giants right-hander Tyler Beede, who has been pretty ineffective this season. He’s pitched to a 5.82 ERA and 5.77 FIP while allowing opposing batters to average 2.08 HRs per nine innings.
Each of the stacked batters will also have the splits advantage, which could spell trouble for Beede. Left-handed batters have managed a .385 wOBA against him this season, and he’s posted 6.24 FIP against left-handed batters.
Lamb in particular stands out as someone who could do some damage in this matchup. He’s historically been significantly better against right-handed pitchers, posting a .347 wOBA and .211 ISO over his career. He also enters this game with excellent recent Statcast data, posting an average distance of 258 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 54% over the past 15 days.
The Diamondbacks should fly a bit under-the-radar today, making them an excellent choice to pair with Gray.
The Diamondbacks aren’t nearly as strong of a value on FanDuel, so the top four-man stack belongs to the Oakland Athletics:
- 1. Marcus Semien (R)
- 2. Robbie Grossman (S)
- 4. Matt Olson (L)
- 5. Mark Canha (R)
Total Salary: $12,700
The A’s are a much more obvious target on today’s slate. They’re currently implied for 5.3 runs, which is the third-highest mark, and their Team Value Rating of 89 ranks first on FanDuel. Grossman, Olson, and Canha each own Bargain Ratings of at least 84%.
Canha has absolutely raked over his past 12 games, posting an average distance of 249 feet, exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 60%. That results in a distance differential of +38 feet and hard hit differential of +24 percentage points, and batters with comparable differentials and implied team totals have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.47 on FanDuel.
Other Batters
Justin Turner checks all the boxes today on FanDuel. He’s on the positive side of his batting splits vs. Padres left-hander Eric Lauer, and he’s scorched the ball over the past 15 days. He also represents one of the better values of the day on FanDuel, where his $3,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 84%.
Yasmani Grandal is the clear class of the catcher position. He’s expected to bat second for the Brewers, who are currently implied for 5.4 runs. His Statcast data from the past 15 days is excellent, and he’s posted a .355 wOBA and .202 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months. He’s taking on Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright, who has surrendered a .377 wOBA to left-handed batters and pitched to a 6.64 ERA on the road this season. It’s a wonderful matchup.
Ryan O’Hearn is another potential source of savings today on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $2,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%. That said, he’s expected to bat fifth in the lineup vs. A’s right-hander Homer Bailey, and O’Hearn has posted a .197 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months. He has way more upside that the typical $2,500 batter on DraftKings.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Brewers C Yasmani Grandal (10)
Photo credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
