The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 13-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate is loaded with high-end pitching options. Five starters own a salary of at least $9,900 on FanDuel:
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $11,300, LAD @ SD
- Tyler Glasnow (R) $10,500, TB @ BAL
- Matthew Boyd (L) $10,400, DET vs. KC
- James Paxton (L) $10,300, NYY vs. MIN
- Chris Sale (L) $9,900, BOS @ CWS
Kershaw headlines this group of pitchers, and he’s gotten off to a fantastic start this season. He’s pitched to a 2.25 ERA through his first 20 innings while increasing his K/9 to 9.45. His Statcast data from his past two starts is also excellent. He’s limited opposing batters to an average distance of 193 feet, exit velocity of 89 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 23%, all three of which represent decreases when compared to his 12-month averages.
He has a fantastic matchup against the Padres, who have struggled vs. left-handers over the past 12 months. Their projected lineup has posted a .287 wOBA and 26.4% strikeout rate over that span, and their implied team total of 3.4 runs is tied for the lowest mark on the slate. That’s slightly higher than we’ve become accustomed to with Kershaw, but it’s still quite good.
Kershaw one of the safest options on the slate for cash games.
Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Clayton Kershaw
Glasnow has been remarkable this season for the Rays, posting a 5-0 record and a 1.75 ERA through his first six starts. That has unsurprisingly translated to a lot of fantasy success, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +6.94 on FanDuel.
He has a lot of appeal against the Orioles, whose lineup has posted a .287 wOBA and 26.1% strikeout rate vs. right-handers over the past 12 months. Glasnow’s moneyline odds of -222 also make him the largest favorite on the slate, and he has a K Prediction of 7.2. Pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically posted a Plus/Minus of +2.73 on DraftKings (per our Trends tool).
Boyd is probably the least appealing stud option. He’s been fantastic, posting an average Plus/Minus of +10.40 through his first six starts on FanDuel, but his matchup against the Royals limits his upside. Their lineup has been one of the toughest to strikeout this season, giving Boyd a mediocre K Prediction of just 6.5. His opponent implied team total of 3.6 and moneyline odds of -149 are also a notch below the rest of the stud pitcher’s.
Paxton had a slow start to his Yankees’ tenure, but his started to turn things around. He’s been dominant over his past three outings, racking up 32 strikeouts while allowing just three earned runs over 19.2 innings pitched. He has the toughest matchup of the stud group — the Twins’ projected lineup has posted a .325 wOBA and 22.1% strikeout rate against southpaws over the past 12 months — but his K Prediction of 8.4 still ranks third on the slate.
Paxton has big upside for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
How you choose to handle Sale could be the deciding factor on this slate. He’s coming off a solid outing against the Rays, allowing just two earned runs and striking out eight over seven innings.
That said, his advanced metrics are still very concerning. His average fastball velocity remains way down, checking in at 3.9 miles per hour slower than his 12-month average. That’s a big red flag for fantasy: Pitchers with a comparable decrease in velocity have historically averaged a horrid Plus/Minus of -11.40 and a Consistency Rating of 20% on FanDuel.
Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chris Sale
Sale also continues to give up hard contact. His past two opponents have averaged an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour and a hard-hit rate of 43%, both of which represent sizable increases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Overall, I’m still bearish on Sale, and the fact that he’s coming off a solid outing sets up a strong fade opportunity.
Value
Jerad Eickhoff will likely be the chalk SP2 option on DraftKings. He has quietly turned into a strong strikeout pitcher, posting an average K/9 of 10.59 through his first 17.0 innings this season. He’s also posted an ERA of 2.12, and his FIP of 1.65 suggests he’s been even better than his traditional numbers indicate. It’s undoubtedly a small sample size, but Eickhoff appears poised for a breakout season.
He has a great matchup against the Nationals, who are dealing with a few key injuries. Trea Turner is on the Injured List with a finger injury, while Juan Soto has been scratched each of the past two days with a back injury. Their resulting lineup is pretty uninspiring and has posted a 28.7% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Eickhoff’s resulting K Prediction of 9.3 trails only Sale’s, making him an elite target at just $7,400 on DraftKings.
Shane Bieber was a popular breakout candidate heading into this season, and he’s managed to live up to expectations so far. He’s posted a 3.68 ERA through his first six outings while increasing his K/9 to 10.43. He’s also been a strong fantasy option, posting a Plus/Minus of at least +5.54 on DraftKings in four of his first five starts. He’s one of the best pure values at pitcher on DraftKings, where his $8,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Fastballs
Kevin Guasman: He has an appealing matchup against the Marlins, whose projected lineup has posted a .274 wOBA and 27.4% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. His opponent implied team total of 3.6 is tied for the fourth-lowest mark on the slate.
Sonny Gray: He’s found new life with the Reds, posting a 2.05 FIP and 10.92 K/9 through his first six starts. His matchup against the Giants and his low average pitch count limit his upside, but he has some viability for cash games.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- 2. Trevor Story (R)
- 3. Nolan Arenado (R)
- 4. Daniel Murphy (L)
- 5. David Dahl (L)
- 6. Ian Desmond (R)
Total salary: $24,000
Coors Field is available on this slate, and unsurprisingly, the Rockies check in as one of the top stacks on the day. They’re taking on Diamondbacks’ left-hander Robbie Ray, and the Rockies absolutely destroyed left-handed pitching at Coors last season. They posted a wOBA of .380 in that situation — which led the league by a comical amount — and their ISO of .230 ranked first as well. Their implied team total of 5.5 runs ranks only third on today’s slate, but they have massive upside.
Story and Arenado have been the biggest reason for their success against southpaws over the past 12 months. Both players have posted a wOBA of at least .452 vs. left-hander pitchers, and Areando combines that with a ridiculous .402 ISO. Both players ranked in the top five in terms of home wOBA vs. left-handers last season, making them arguably the most dangerous duo in all of baseball in that situation.
Story also enters this contest in elite recent form. He’s posted an average distance of 257 feet over the past 15 days, which represents an increase of +27 feet when compared to his 12-month average. He’s one of the top hitting options on the slate regardless of whether or not you choose to stack the Rockies.
Unfortunately, stacking the Rockies means you won’t be able to roster any of the stud pitchers. If you’re looking for a more cost-effective option, consider the Rays. They own the top four-man stack on FanDuel:
- 1. Brandon Lowe (L)
- 2. Tommy Pham (R)
- 3. Ji-Man Choi (L)
- 5. Nathaniel Lowe (S)
Total salary: $12,800
Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tommy Pham
This stack checks in at $4,500 less than the top Rockies stack on FanDuel, which obviously increases their appeal. The Rays are also implied for 5.8 runs, which is the top mark on the slate. Add it all up, and you get a Team Value Rating of 91 on FanDuel. They will likely be the most popular stack target across the industry.
They’re taking on Orioles’ right-hander Dan Straily, who has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season. He’s posted an ERA of 6.75 through his first 18.2 innings, and his 8.16 FIP suggests he’s been even worse than his traditional metrics indicate. He’s also posted a paltry K/9 of just 4.34, which I think is worse than my K/9 for my beer league softball team.
Other Batters
It’s hard to find a batter in better recent form than Miguel Cabrera. He’s smoked the baseball over his past eight games, posting an average distance of 260 feet, exit velocity of 97 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 66%. He’s very affordable at $3,700 on DraftKings but is projected for just 2-4% ownership.
Rougned Odor is expected to occupy the second spot in the lineup for the Rangers, who are currently implied for 5.0 runs. He’ll be on the positive side of his batting splits vs. Blue Jays’ right-hander Trent Thornton, who has pitched to 5.08 ERA this season. He’s struggled in particular against left-handed batters like Odor, allowing them to compile a .392 wOBA while surrendering four HRs in just 14.0 innings pitched. Odor and his lefty teammates like Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara and Joey Gallo should be able to take advantage.
Joey Votto has had a slow start to the season, but his recent Statcast data suggests he’s due for a breakout. He’s posted an average distance of 248 feet, exit velocity of 96 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 51% over the past 15 days, all three of which represent sizable increases when compared to his 12-month averages. He’s also going to bat leadoff on this slate, which has historically provided batters with a greater Plus/Minus than any other spot in the lineup.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Rockies SS Trevor Story (27) and 3B Nolan Arenado (28)
Photo credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports
