The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Both DraftKings and FanDuel offer four-game early-day slates starting at 11:35 p.m. ET, along with eight-game main slates starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
FanDuel will also have a 15-game all-day slate starting at 12:35 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are four pitchers who cost more than $10,000:
- Chris Sale (L) $11,000, BOS @ BAL
- Matt Boyd (L) $10,300, DET vs. LAA
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $10,200, LAD vs. ATL
- Shane Bieber (R) $10,000, CLE vs. CWS
After striking out six or fewer batters in his first four games, Sale has now bounced back and struck out 10 and eight batters, respectively, over his last two starts. Consequently, he hit value in both games, something he had failed to do to begin the year. However, his salary has now increased by $1,100 since his last start.
The projected Orioles lineup carries just a 22.6% strikeout rate against lefties over the past year, but Sale still boasts a robust 9.6 K Prediction. The Orioles could struggle to generate runs as they have a meager .302 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and rank 21st in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against lefties this season. The Red Sox also have the most favorable Vegas data on the slate as the Orioles are implied for 3.2 runs and Boston is sitting at -273 on the moneyline. Per our Trends tool, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data have historically averaged a +6.30 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 69.7% Consistency Rating.
Boyd has been excellent this season, averaging a +10.96 FanDuel Plus/Minus with an 86% Consistency Rating. He also has an elite 32% strikeout rate with a 25.8% K-BB%. However, the matchup against the Angels is far from ideal when we’re after strikeouts. Their projected lineup has a low 18.3% strikeout rate and a 39% hard-hit rate against lefties over the past 12 months. His price tag could be too steep for a pitcher who is squaring off against a team with a 4.1 implied run total and its low strikeout rate has given Boyd a 5.6 K Prediction.
Kershaw has been decent this season, pitching to a 3.00 xFIP and a 27.8% strikeout rate, but that hasn’t resulted in many fantasy points thus far as he’s scored more than 37 FanDuel points just once this year, which isn’t exactly what you’re looking for from a pitcher who is this expensive. It’s a decent matchup against a projected Braves lineup that has a 26.5% strikeout rate, but Atlanta does have a top-12 offense in team ISO and wRC+ against lefties this season.
While the Braves have an implied run total of 3.4, Kershaw isn’t the best value, sporting a +2.12 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Bieber is just on FanDuel’s all-day slate for Wednesday’s games. While the matchup is good against a projected White Sox lineup with a 27.1% strikeout rate, Bieber is a bit overpriced for a guy with a 4.02 xFIP and 7.0 K Prediction. His +1.77 Projected FanDuel Plus/Minus is among the worst marks on the slate.
Values
Brad Peacock has mostly been hit or miss this season, reaching value just twice and pitching to a 4.69 xFIP. But, he’s an intriguing option if you’re looking to pay down at pitcher. The main concern is that the Royals have a top-11 offense this season in terms of wRC+ and team ISO, along with Peacock sporting abysmal Statcast data over his last two starts. Although, sportsbooks don’t seem too concerned as the Royals have a 3.6 implied run total. He’s popping in our models with a +15.69 Projected Plus/Minus and 87% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
On the early slate, Brandon Woodruff carries some interest against a Nationals team with a 3.8 implied run total. He’s been solid this year, pitching to a 3.54 xFIP with a 28.1% strikeout rate and 71% Consistency Rating on FanDuel. While the Nationals have a low 22.4% strikeout rate, they have a meager .309 wOBA and rank 23rd in wRC+ against righties this season.
Fastballs
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man early-slate DraftKings stack from the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- 1. Starling Marte (R)
- 2. Melky Cabrera (S)
- 3. Gregory Polanco (L)
- 4. Josh Bell (S)
Total salary: $17,700
The Pirates lead DraftKings’ main slate with a Team Value Rating of 73, and their 5.1 implied run total trails only the Brewers for the early set of games. They’ll be squaring off against Shelby Miller, who boasts a slate-worst 1.99 WHIP and 2.04 HR/9 over the past 12 months. He’s also in poor form, allowing opposing hitters to average a 239-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 41% hard-hit rate.
Miller’s poor Statcast data should bode well for this stack where most of the hitters are on the positive side of their batting splits, along with being in good form. Bell stands out with his .383 wOBA and .220 ISO to go along with his 259-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 56% hard-hit rate, all of which exceed his 15-day/12-month averages.
One of the top stacks in the CSURAM88 Model for FanDuel’s main slate belongs to the Boston Red Sox.
- 1. Andrew Benintendi (L)
- 2. Mookie Betts (R)
- 3. J.D. Martinez (R)
- 4. Mitch Moreland (L)
Total salary: $15,700
The Red Sox are one of three teams on the main slate with an implied run total over 5.0 runs, so it’s no surprise they also have a high Team Value Rating. They’ll take on Andrew Cashner, who has an abysmal 4.94 xFIP and subpar 8.2% K-BB%.
Betts will be on the positive side his batting splits, posting an elite .423 wOBA and .255 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. He’s also drawn a good amount of hard contact over the past two weeks, evidenced by his 92-mph exit velocity and 40% hard-hit rate. Additionally, Martinez, Moreland and Benintendi both carry average batted-ball distances over 230 feet.
Other Batters
The top shortstop in the Bales Model is Trevor Story. He’ll have the benefit of being at Coors Field in a righty-lefty matchup, which should bode well for him considering he’s hit lefties to the tune of a .448 wOBA and .325 ISO over the past 12 months. He’s also throttling the baseball of late, possessing a 249-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity and 46% hard-hit rate.
It’s also difficult to not take a hard look at Nolan Arenado with his .490 wOBA and absurd .396 ISO, along with his 96-mph exit velocity and 49% hard-hit rate.
Matt Carpenter checks in as the top hitter in the Batted Ball Model for the early slate. This isn’t too surprising when you see which factors that particular model includes. For starters, Carpenter is expected to hit from the leadoff spot, the Cardinals have an implied run total of 4.8 runs and he has the highest or one of the highest Projected Plus/Minuses depending on site. Not to mention his actual batted-ball data, sporting a 229-foot average distance and 93-mph exit velocity. Carpenter will also be taking on a righty, which gives him a .393 wOBA and .270 ISO.
Eugenio Suarez carries some appeal on DraftKings as a tournament play with his 83% Bargain Rating. The matchup against Brett Anderson will put him on the positive side of his splits as he owns an elite .443 wOBA and .303 ISO. He’s also in good form, posting a 233-foot average distance and 93-mph exit velocity over the past two weeks. Meanwhile, Anderson has allowed a 202-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 56% hard-hit rate over his last two starts. I wouldn’t expect Suarez to be very highly owned with Arenado and Alex Bregman likely soaking up most of the third base ownership.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Josh Bell, Starling Marte
Photo credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
