The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
FanDuel and DraftKings are both offering a 14-game all-day slate that begins at 1:05 p.m. ET, along with four- and three-game early slates beginning at the same time.
Additionally, FanDuel’s 10-game main slate starts at 6:35 p.m. ET, while DraftKings’ seven-game main slate gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
On DraftKings there are three pitchers who cost above $9,000:
- Cole Hamels (L) $9,400 CHC @ MIA
- Walker Buehler (R) $9,300 LAD vs. CIN
- Carlos Carrasco (R) $9,100 CLE @ SEA
Hamels is the only pitcher in this group on the main slate. He’s been solid this season, pitching to a 3.80 xFIP, which is right on par with his ERA, per FanGraphs. As usual, it’s a decent spot against a projected Marlins lineup that has a 26.3% strikeout rate and .274 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) against lefties over the past year.
Additionally, the Marlins have struggled to get much going against left-handed pitchers this season, ranking 22nd Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+). Hamels is likely one of the safest options on the main slate since the Cubs are sizeable -156 moneyline favorites, and the Marlins one of just two teams at the time of writing with an opponent implied run total of 3.9 or lower. Pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions (6.6) and Vegas data have historically averaged a +1.38 DraftKings Plus/Minus, per our Trends tool.
Buehler continues to struggle this season, allowing five earned runs in two of his three starts. While his 5.16 xFIP is nearly three runs lower than his ERA, he still has a subpar xFIP.
The matchup against the Reds puts him against a team that ranks 28th in wRC+ this year against righties, but Buehler lacks upside. He has just a 5.3 K Prediction against a team with a low 18.4% strikeout-rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
That said, the options are thin on the early slate, and the Reds are implied for only 3.7 runs while Dodgers check in as -167 moneyline favorites. Those odds are easily the best on the early slate of games.
Carrasco didn’t even make it out of the first inning in his last start, allowing six earned runs to the Royals in 0.2 innings pitched. This marks the second start this season that Carrasco has allowed six or more earned runs.
Despite his 7.9 K Prediction and favorable Vegas data, he’d be difficult to feel confident about in his current form: He has allowed opposing hitters a 291-foot average batted-ball distance, 98-mph exit velocity and 62% hard-hit rate, and the Mariners rank third in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season.
Values
Jake Odorizzi is the other pitcher besides Hamels facing a team with an implied run total below 4.0. His 6.9 K Prediction is the second-highest mark on the main slate, and the projected Blue Jays lineup has a high 27.8% strikeout rate and lackluster .306 wOBA against righties over the past year.
Odorizzi hasn’t done much this season, averaging a -3.02 DraftKings Plus/Minus, but his +57 Recent Batted Ball Luck indicates that he’s been unlucky thus far, and his xFIP supports that notion: It’s 1.83 runs lower than his ERA. He presently leads DraftKings’ main slate with a +6.21 Projected Plus/Minus.
Fastballs
Lucas Giolito: The Royals’ projected lineup has the slate’s second-highest strikeout rate (24.9%), and Giolito has been unlucky to start the year, evidenced by his 3.86 xFIP and 6.19 ERA. Among starting pitchers this year, Giolito has an above-average xFIP.
Kevin Gausman: He’s been decent but somewhat lucky to start the year since his 3.76 xFIP is almost a full run higher than his ERA. The matchup against the Diamondbacks is nothing to write home about, as their projected lineup has a low 22.6% strikeout rate, but they also have a mediocre .295 wOBA and rank 18th in wRC+ against righties this year. At the time of writing, the Diamondbacks are the largest favorite on the main slate.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man early-slate DraftKings stack from the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- 1. Joc Pederson (L)
- 2. Corey Seager (L)
- 3. Justin Turner (R)
- 4. Cody Bellinger (L)
Total salary: $18,800
At the time of writing, there are four teams implied for at least 4.9 runs, and the Dodgers are one them. Sonny Gray has been okay this season, but three of his starts have come against two teams (Pirates and Marlins) that rank near the bottom of the league in wRC+ against righties this year. It’s a different story with the Dodgers, who rank first in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.
It should be noted that Turner (ankle, hamstring) and Bellinger (knee) are both banged up, but they may be returning to the lineup this afternoon, so be sure to monitor the Lineups Page when lineups are released.
Meanwhile, the two healthy guys are both on the positive side of their splits. Pederson has demolished right-handed pitchers, posting a .399 wOBA and .335 isolated power (ISO) against them over the past year. Seager also has elite numbers against them, hitting them to the tune of a .415 wOBA and .216 ISO.
The top main-slate FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Texas Rangers.
- 1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
- 2. Danny Santana (S)
- 4. Nomar Mazara (L)
- 5. Joey Gallo (L)
Total salary: $14,600
The Rangers’ 5.5 implied run total leads the main slate by 0.4 runs. They square off against Matt Harvey, who has been throttled in his past two starts, allowing 17 hits and 14 earned runs. One of those starts came against the Rangers, who lit him up with 10 hits and eight runs.
Choo has been excellent against right-handed pitchers over the past year with his .404 wOBA and .215 ISO. He’s in great form right now, sporting a 254-foot average batted-ball distance, 98-mph exit velocity and 62% hard-hit rate.
Gallo is in a similar boat, possessing a .363 wOBA and .297 ISO. Gallo boasts an absurd 100-mph exit velocity and 73% hard-hit rate over his past nine games. Hitters with comparable batted-ball data have averaged an exceptional +3.25 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Other Batters
The Angels lead the main slate with their Team Value Rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Kole Calhoun could be a cheap way to gain exposure to them. Historically, hitters with comparable salaries hitting from the leadoff spot in games with similar implied run totals have averaged a +1.48 FanDuel Plus/Minus. If you have the extra salary, Mike Trout boasts a .496 wOBA and .354 ISO against right-handed pitchers.
On the early slate, Mike Moustakas boasts a .338 wOBA and .233 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. He’s in decent form with positive differentials in recent batted-ball distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate. His hard-hit differential is nine percentage points higher than his 12-month average.
Eddie Rosario has a 90% Bargain Rating on DraftKings: He’s fared well against right-handed pitchers with his .356 wOBA and .223 ISO. His 238-foot average batted-ball distance and 94-mph exit velocity suggest that he’ll have an edge over Trent Thornton, who has allowed opposing hitters to average a 95-mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate over his past two starts.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Shin-Soo Choo and Nomar Mazara
Photo credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
