The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering 14-game all-day and four-game early slates that begins at 1:10 p.m. ET, along with a nine-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are two pitchers who cost more than $10,000:
- Trevor Bauer (R) $12,000, CLE @ DET
- Noah Syndergaard (R) $10,100 NYM vs. MIN
Bauer is off to a hot start to the season, averaging a +11.26 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his past two starts. He’s likely the top pitcher of the day, as he’s set to square off against a projected Tigers lineup that has a 24.8% strikeout rate and .307 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Additionally, the Tigers rank 26th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against righties this season, per FanGraphs. Bauer’s 8.7 K Prediction is one of the top marks among pitchers on Wednesday’s slate of games, so it’s no surprise that he leads all pitchers in median and ceiling projections.
Bauer should be the top option for you if you’re playing in the all-day or main slates and wanting to pay up at the position. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions, salaries and Vegas data (3.3 opponent implied run total, -136 moneyline) have averaged a +5.41 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 64.9% Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool).
Syndergaard checks in as the highest priced pitcher on the main slate for Wednesday night. He’s off to a rough start to the season, as he’s averaged a -5.73 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his first two games.
However, he could be in a nice rebound spot against a projected Twins lineup that has a 24% strikeout rate and weak .264 wOBA against righties over the past year. Syndergaard has an excellent batted-ball profile, allowing only a 198-foot average batted-ball distance and 88-mph exit velocity to opposing hitters over his past two starts.
Furthermore, he’s sporting a 4.50 ERA and 3.35 xFIP thus far, suggesting he’s been rather unlucky to begin the year, since his xFIP is 1.15 runs lower than his ERA. His 5.7 K Prediction leaves much to be desired, but the Mets easily possess the most favorable Vegas data on the slate: The Twins are sporting a 3.2 implied run total. Consequently, the Mets are -186 moneyline favorites.
Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and Vegas data have been consistent but slightly underwhelming with a +1.86 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 64.3% Consistency Rating.
Values
Tyler Mahle has a solid 90% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. He has a favorable matchup against a projected Marlins lineup that has an incredibly high 29.7% strikeout rate and low .280 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past year. It should be a decent spot to target Mahle: He a 6.7 K Prediction, and the Marlins have a lackluster offense, ranking 24th in wRC+ against righties this season.
Robbie Ray is intriguing given that the Diamondbacks are -140 moneyline favorites against the Rangers. He has a 7.3 K Prediction, which could pair well with a projected Rangers lineup that has a 29% strikeout rate and .271 wOBA against lefties over the past year. It is slightly concerning that the Rangers rank eighth in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this season, but Ray is still one of the better value options on the main slate, sporting a +8.31 FanDuel Projected Plus/Minus, the third-highest mark on the slate.
Fastballs
Colin McHugh: He’ll take on a powerful projected Yankees lineup that possesses a .332 wOBA over the past year against righties, including the fourth-best wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season. However, the Yankees also strike out a lot, sporting a 27.3% strikeout rate. He’s an interesting tournament play with a high K Prediction.
Matt Boyd: He’s been on fire, posting strikeout totals of 13 and 10 over his past two games. On deck is another high-strikeout team in the Indians, whose projected lineup has a 28.5% strikeout rate and horrid .276 wOBA against lefties over the past year. Boyd will likely go low owned in tournaments and could be good leverage off of Bauer lineups. The Tigers are only +126 underdogs, and the Indians are implied for a meager 3.8 runs. At the time of writing, the sharp money is coming in on Detroit.
Tyler Glasnow: His 7.7 K Prediction is the second-highest mark on the early slate, and the projected White Sox lineup has a 26.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. The Rays are also the largest favorite on the early slate, sporting a moneyline of -151.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man DraftKings stack for the early slate from the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays.
- 1. Austin Meadows (L)
- 2. Tommy Pham (R)
- 3. Ji-Man Choi (L)
- 5. Yandy Diaz (R)
Total Salary: $16,400
The Rays are set to take on Reynaldo Lopez, who has gotten absolutely throttled this season, allowing 10 earned runs, three home runs and 12 hits over his first two starts. Unsurprisingly, Lopez has abysmal Statcast data over that span, allowing a 234-foot average batted-ball distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 45% hard-hit rate.
Meadows will be on the negative side of his wOBA and isolated power (ISO) splits, but he has exceptional Statcast data over his past nine games, boasting a 254-foot average batted-ball distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 48% hard-hit rate.
Choi hasn’t done much this season, but he does have a .375 wOBA and .219 ISO against righties over the past year. He’s also drawn tons of hard contact this year, evidenced by his 94-mph exit velocity and 42% hard-hit rate.
The top stack for the FanDuel main slate when generated by projected points belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.
- 1. Andrew McCutchen (R)
- 2. Jean Segura (R)
- 3. Bryce Harper (L)
- 4. Rhys Hoskins R)
Total Salary: $17,000
The Phillies will face Jeremy Hellickson, who owns an abysmal 6.13 K/9 over the past year. Overall, the Phillies’ 5.1 implied run total is among the highest marks on Wednesday’s main slate. This is an expensive stack, which could make it a little tougher to fill out the rest of your roster.
Harper has dominated right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, hitting them to the tune of a .379 wOBA and .245 ISO. He also has favorable Statcast data over his past 10 games, sporting a 236-foot average batted-ball distance and 93-mph exit velocity.
Hoskins will have a righty-righty matchup, but he’s shown superior power against righties with his .374 wOBA and .292 ISO.
Other Batters
The A’s are another team implied for over 5.0 runs on Wednesday’s slate against the righty Dan Straily. Matt Chapman is off to a slow start as he’s averaging a -3.94 FanDuel Plus/Minus this season, but he will be on the positive side of his splits, possessing a .367 wOBA and .241 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past year. He’s tied for the top spot with Matt Carpenter in our projections for third basemen.
The 1-2-3-4 stack of the A’s would be a fine alternative stack for $13,600 on FanDuel if you’re not looking to pay $17,000 for the Phillies. Khris Davis has smashed righties, flaunting a .369 wOBA and .313 ISO against them.
Brandon Nimmo is interesting if you need salary relief. He’s shown exceptional power against righties over the past year, sporting a .395 wOBA and .248 ISO against them. He’s also in good form with his 244-foot average batted-ball distance and 95-mph exit velocity. He’s not a bad pay-down option expected to hit from No. 1 spot in the order.
Raul Mondesi leads our shortstop median projections by nearly two points and if facing Yusei Kikuchi. The switch-hitting Mondesi has demolished lefties over the past 12 months, hitting them to the tune of a .368 wOBA and .276 ISO. Mondesi’s recent 42% hard-hit rate is a top-six mark among shortstops on the main slate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Khris Davis
Photo credit: Kiel Maddox-USA TODAY Sports
