The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a split-slate: There’s a three-game early slate starting at 1:10 p.m. ET and a 10-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate is loaded with high-end pitching options. There are six starters with a salary of at least $10,000 on FanDuel:
- Jacob deGrom (R) $12,200, NYM vs. MIN
- Gerrit Cole (R) $10,900, HOU vs. NYY
- Stephen Strasburg (R) $10,500, WSH @ PHI
- Corey Kluber (R) $10,300, CLE @ DET
- Aaron Nola (R) $10,200, PHI vs. WSH
- Chris Sale (L) $10,000, BOS vs. TOR
deGrom has been nothing short of the best pitcher in baseball over the past year. He pitched to a ridiculous 1.70 ERA and 11.16 K/9 last season, and he’s yet to allow an earned run through his first two starts this year. While those numbers are unreal, his most appealing attribute for fantasy purposes is his consistency. He’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his past 31 starts, and he tied Bob Gibson’s record of 26 consecutive quality starts in his last outing. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.8 on FanDuel over the past year, and his Consistency Rating of 75% over that time is the top mark on today’s slate.
He has a difficult matchup today vs. the Minnesota Twins — their projected lineup has posted a .362 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12-months — but deGrom is as matchup-proof as it gets. He leads all starters with an opponent implied team total of 2.7 runs, while his moneyline odds of -198 rank second. Pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.47 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool). There’s no reason not to roster him in cash games, and he has plenty of upside for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) as well.
Cole is also coming off a fantastic year in 2018. He pitched to a 2.88 ERA and 12.4 K/9, both of which were among the best marks in his career.
But he’s in a brutal spot today vs. the New York Yankees. Their offense is dealing with a host of injuries, but their projected lineup has still posted a .332 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months. They were able to score three runs against Justin Verlander yesterday, and their implied team total of 3.5 runs on today’s slate is high for a pitcher of Cole’s caliber. The Yankees are prone to strikeouts — and Cole’s K Prediction of 8.7 is the top mark on today’s slate — but they can do a lot of damage when they put the ball in play. He’s best suited for GPPs.
Strasburg and Nola are squaring off tonight in what is expected to be a competitive contest. The Phillies are slight -131 favorites, giving Nola a slight edge in opponent implied team total (3.5 vs. 4.0).
But Strasburg has the clear edge in strikeout upside. He’s posted a K/9 of 11.05 over the past 12 months, compared to just 9.68 for Nola. The Phillies’ projected lineup has also struck out in a higher percentage of at-bats, and Strasburg’s K Prediction of 8.2 is significantly higher than Nola’s 6.2. Nola was also roughed up in his last start, allowing six earned runs in just three innings, and he’s underperformed his 12-month Statcast marks over the past 15 days. Even with a slight disadvantage in Vegas data, Strasburg has the edge in this matchup.
Kluber and Sale are the top two options on the early slate, and both pitchers are looking to rebound off disappointing starts to their campaigns. Kluber is in an appealing spot today vs. the Detroit Tigers. They ranked dead last in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers last season, and they’ve made no marked improvement to their lineup this year.
Kluber is also facing fewer questions than Sale, who has looked like a shell of his former self to start the season. He managed to limit the A’s to just one run over six innings in his last outing, but he also recorded just one strikeout. He’s been hit very hard over his first two starts, and his 15-day Statcast marks in distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate are all worse than his 12-month averages.
The biggest concern, though, is the lack of velocity on his fastball. His average fastball has checked in at just 90.9 miles per hour through his first two starts, which represents a decrease of 3.8 miles per hour when compared to last season. Historically, pitchers with a comparable velocity decrease have averaged an appalling -9.78 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. His Vegas marks are still among the best on today’s slate — he owns an opponent implied team total of 3.1 runs and -238 moneyline odds vs. the Toronto Blue Jays — but Sale is too risky to trust in cash games right now. He’s a better option today on FanDuel, where his $10,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Values
Charlie Morton had a career year in 2018 with the Houston Astros, and he’s managed to carry that success over to his first year with the Tampa Bay Rays. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.78 on DraftKings through his first two starts, and he’s in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Chicago White Sox. Their projected lineup has struggled to a .302 wOBA and 26.8% strikeout rate over the past 12 months, and Morton owns a solid 8.6 K Prediction and -151 moneyline odds. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.98 on DraftKings. He’s a strong pivot off of Kluber and Sale on the early slate.
Joey Lucchesi is another pitcher with an elite matchup today. He’s taking on the San Francisco Giants, and their projected lineup has posted a .276 wOBA against southpaws over the past 12 months. Lucchesi also benefits from getting to pitch in San Francisco, which has historically been one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in baseball. His Park Factor of 93 is tied for the top mark on the slate.
Fastballs
Derek Holland: There aren’t many low-priced options worth considering on DraftKings, but Holland is one of them. The Padres’ projected lineup has struggled against southpaws over the past 12 months, posting a .305 wOBA and 27.9% strikeout rate, and he benefits from pitching in the same elite ballpark as Lucchesi.
Ross Stripling: It’s always tough to trust Dodgers pitchers, given their relatively low pitch counts, but outside of the elite pitchers, Stripling has one of the day’s best opponent implied team totals with 4.0 runs. He has also posted elite Statcast marks over his past two starts, particularly his average distance of just 160 feet.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack using the Bales Model belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays:
- 1. Austin Meadows (L)
- 2. Tommy Pham (R)
- 3. Ji-Man Choi (L)
- 5. Yandy Diaz (R)
- 6. Avisial Garcia (R)
Total Salary: $21,100
The Rays’ implied team total of 4.8 runs is the second-highest mark on the early slate, and they provide one of the best values on DraftKings as well. Diaz in particular owns a Bargain Rating of 98%, and their Team Value Rating of 63 ranks first on the early slate.
They’re taking on White Sox right-hander Ervin Santana, who will be making his first start of the year. He was roughed up in five starts with the Twins last season, pitching to an 8.03 ERA and 7.94 FIP.
The Rays also enter today’s contest in strong recent form. Meadows has posted an average distance of 255 feet and hard hit rate of 52% through his first eight games, resulting in massive 15-day/12-month differentials in both categories. Historically, leadoff hitters with comparable differentials and implied team totals have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.14 on DraftKings.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Oakland A’s:
- 3. Stephen Piscotty (R)
- 4. Khris Davis (R)
- 5. Chad Pinder (R)
- 7. Mark Canha (R)
Total Salary: $12,500
The A’s own the top non-Coors implied team total on the slate at 5.2 runs, and they’re more affordable than the Rockies or Braves with their Team Value Rating of 86. That’s important on a slate with lots of high-priced pitching options to choose from. The A’s should be a popular stack target, but stacking them in the above manner should increase your chances of having a unique lineup. Canha in particular should serve as a nice differentiator: He’s projected for just 2-4% ownership on FanDuel.
The A’s are taking on Orioles left-hander John Means, which puts each of the stacked batters on the positive side of his batting splits.
Other Batters
Brandon Nimmo has gotten off to a brutal start this season, posting a batting average of just .103 through his first nine games. That said, he’s posted a .388 wOBA and .237 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, and he’s taking on a mediocre right-hander today in Kyle Gibson. Nimmo has also seen a price decrease of $400 since the start of the season on FanDuel, so this could be an excellent time to buy low on him.
Joc Pederson is expected to occupy the leadoff spot today vs. Cardinals right-hander Dakota Hudson, who has been hit very hard so far this season. He’s been crushed by left-handed batters in particular, allowing them to post a .613 wOBA and tally three home runs through just 19 plate appearances. Pederson has done a lot of damage against right-handers over the past 12 months, logging a .389 wOBA and .306 ISO, and his Statcast data from his past 10 games is also impressive.
Nick Markakis is a great way to get some cheap exposure to Coors Field on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $4,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he’ll be on the positive side of his batting splits against Rockies right-hander German Marquez. Historically, batters with comparable Bargain Ratings and lineup spots have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.41 when playing at Coors.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Mets Pitcher Jacob deGrom (48)
Photo credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
