The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 13-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate lacks a strong group of stud pitchers. Two possess a salary of at least $8,500 on FanDuel, and none are priced above $8,700:
- Kenta Maeda (R) $8,700, LAD @ CHC
- Patrick Corbin (L) $8,400, WSH @ COL
Maeda has pitched well to start the season, posting a positive Plus/Minus in three of his first four starts on FanDuel. He’s pitched to a 3.80 ERA through his first 23.2 innings, and he’s posted a 10.13 K/9 over the past 12 months.
Maeda has also posted some impressive Statcast numbers over his past two starts. Opposing batters have compiled an average distance of 192 feet, exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 22%, all three of which represent decreases when compared to Maeda’s 12-month averages.
He’s in an interesting spot today vs. the Chicago Cubs. He’s currently a slight underdog, checking in with +100 moneyline odds, but the Cubs’ projected lineup has been mediocre against right-handers over the past 12 months. The over/under on this game is 8, and with the current forecast only calling for 5 mph winds blowing in from right field, the conditions don’t figure to play a huge factor.
Maeda is particularly appealing today on FanDuel, where his $8,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Photo credit: Richard Mackson-USA Today Sports. Pictured: Kenta Maeda
Corbin is easily the most talented pitcher on today’s slate – he’s posted a 2.36 ERA through his first four starts this season – but he has to deal with the most unfriendly pitching environment in baseball. He’s taking on the Rockies in Coors Field, and comparably priced pitchers have historically posted a -5.55 Plus/Minus when pitching on the road in Colorado (per the Trends tool).
The Rockies also feasted on left-handed pitchers when playing at home last season, leading the league with a ridiculous .380 wOBA.
With that in mind, Corbin is way too risky to trust in cash games. That said, he could still have some viability in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He leads the slate with a K Prediction of 7.5, and he combines his ability to miss bats with a solid Statcast profile from his past two starts.
Values
Jose Quintana will be opposing Maeda in Chicago, and he’s pitched incredibly well in his past two starts. He’s tallied 18 strikeouts over 14 innings and hasn’t allowed a single earned run. His Statcast data from that timeframe is also impressive, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -25 feet. He has a K Prediction of 6.1 on today’s slate, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and distance differentials have posted a Plus/Minus of +1.53 on DraftKings.
Zach Wheeler has had a disappointing start to his season, posting a 6.35 ERA through his first four starts. That said, he has been better over his past two, allowing five earned runs while striking out 13 batters over 13 innings. Wheeler has also averaged 110 pitches per start over that time frame, which is the highest mark among today’s pitchers. That definitely increases his appeal on a slate with no sure things at pitcher.
He has solid Vegas data today vs. the Philadelphia Phillies, owning an opponent implied team total of 4.0 runs and moneyline odds of -133. His K Prediction of 6.7 is also tied for the second-highest mark on the slate.
Frankie Montas is one of the best pure values on DraftKings, where his $7,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 52%. He’s only the 12th-most expensive pitcher on DraftKings, but he’s the third-most expensive option on FanDuel.
He’s not much of a strikeout pitcher – he’s posted a K/9 of just 6.42 over the past 12 months – but he does have some of the best Vegas marks on the slate. He owns an opponent implied team total of 3.7 runs and moneyline odds of -146, both of which are currently the best marks on the slate. He’s a viable SP2 in cash games.
Fastballs
Jonathan Loaisiga: He’s making a spot start for the Yankees, and they’ll need some depth from him after playing a 14-inning contest yesterday. He’s got great strikeout ability given his K/9 of 11.94 over the past 12 months, and his K Prediction of 6.2 ranks fourth on the slate.
Daniel Ponce de Leon: He’s making just his first start this season for the St. Louis Cardinals but pitched to a 2.74 ERA over 11 appearances last year. He has some upside despite a tough matchup vs. the Brewers.
Jeff Samardzija: He has some of the best recent Statcast data on the slate. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of just 174 feet, which represents a decrease of -36 feet when compared to his 12-month average. He also has a great matchup today vs. the Toronto Blue Jays.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Houston Astros:
- 1. George Springer (R)
- 2. Jose Altuve (R)
- 3. Alex Bregman (R)
- 4. Michael Brantley (L)
- 8. Tyler White (R)
Total Salary: $23,000
Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Carlos Correa (1) and George Springer (4).
The Astros are currently implied for 5.2 runs, which is the fourth-highest mark on the slate. They’re taking on Twins’ right-hander Michael Pineda, who has been roughed up to start the season. He’s pitched to a 5.30 ERA through his first four starts, and his Statcast data from his past two starts is concerning. He’s allowed opposing batters to post an average distance of 235-feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 56%, all three of which are among the worst marks on the slate.
The Astros have also done some damage against right-handers this season, ranking sixth in wRC+.
White is a particularly intriguing member of this stack. He’s hit the ball well over the past 15 days, posting an average distance of 253 feet, which represents an increase of +37 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, batters with comparable distance differentials and implied team totals have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.08 on DraftKings. He should command minimal ownership, which makes him an important differentiator.
On FanDuel, the top four-man stack belongs to the Chicago White Sox:
- 1. Leury Garcia (S)
- 2. Yoan Moncada (S)
- 3. Jose Abreu (R)
- 4. Yonder Alonso (L)
Total Salary: $13,100
The White Sox exploded for 12 runs yesterday and are in another strong spot tonight. They’re taking on Orioles right-hander Andrew Cashner, who has pitched to a 5.90 FIP this season. He’s also posted a K/9 of just 5.33, so the White Sox should put a bunch of balls in play at a bare minimum. Their implied team total of 5.3 runs trails only the Nationals’ on today’s slate.
Each of the stacked batters for the White Sox also enter today’s contest in good recent form. Each batter has posted a positive distance differential over the past 15 days, and Garcia, Moncada, and Alonso have also outperformed their average exit velocity over the same time frame.
Other Batters
Brandon Lowe has been an awesome source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.08 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. His Statcast data from the past 15 days suggests that production isn’t fluky either: He’s outperformed his 12-month marks in average distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. He’s expected to occupy the leadoff spot for the Rays today and will be on the positive side of his batting splits against Royals right-hander Homer Bailey.
The Nationals should garner a lot of attention on today’s slate, and Juan Soto arguably has the most upside on the team. He’s destroyed right-handed pitching in his young career, posting a .400 wOBA and .213 ISO, and he has an appealing matchup vs. Jeff Hoffman. He’s struggled mightily with left-handed batters to start the season, resulting in a .542 wOBA.
Kole Calhoun looks like a nice source of savings on today’s slate. He’s hit the ball hard over the past 15 days, posting an average exit velocity of 97 miles per hour and hard hit rate of 54%. He’s also displayed nice power vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12-months with an ISO of .211.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Nationals SP Patrick Corbin (46)
Photo credit: Geoff Burke-USA Today Sports
