The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday’s main slate differs by site: FanDuel features a 15-game slate starting at 6:35 p.m. ET while DraftKings features a 13-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
All 30 teams are in action today, but the top-end pitching options are limited. Two stand out above the rest on FanDuel:
- Stephen Strasburg (R) $10,900, WSH vs. SF
- Tyler Glasnow (R) $10,600, TB vs. BAL
Strasburg has struggled to start the season, posting an average Plus/Minus of -6.48 through his first three starts, but there’s a lot to like about him on this slate. He remains one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball, owning a K/9 of 11.22 over the past 12 months. His Statcast data also suggests that he’s been a little unlucky through his first past two starts. He’s allowed batters to compile an average distance of 180 feet, exit velocity of 86 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 13%, all of which represent massive decreases when compared to his 12-month averages.
He has an elite matchup against the Giants, who have averaged an anemic 2.76 runs per game this season, and their projected lineup has posted a .276 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months. They’re implied for just 3.4 runs, and Strasburg is also a sizable -182 favorite. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.98 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool). He’s the safest option on Tuesday’s slate.
There’s a little less certainty with Glasnow, but he also has tremendous upside. He’s always had electric stuff — he’s posted a K/9 of at least 10.98 over the past two seasons — but has struggled with control issues. He’s averaged 4.75 walks per nine innings over his career, which has hurt overall numbers.
Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tyler Glasnow
That said, Glasnow has managed to get his walks under control to start the season. He’s averaged just 1.59 walks per nine innings through his first three starts and has responded with an ERA of 0.53. If he can continue to limit the number of free passes he hands out, he’s going to be in line for a big season.
He also has one of the best matchups on the slate against the Orioles, whose projected lineup has posted a .278 wOBA and 25.8% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. They’re also implied for a slate-low 3.1 runs. Glasnow is also a -236 favorite, giving him the best Vegas data on the slate.
Still, there are some concerns with Glasnow.
He’s seen a price increase of $3,000 since the start of the season on FanDuel, and pitchers with comparable monthly salary changes have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of -0.17. He’s also allowed batters to compile an average distance of 220 feet over his past two starts, which represents an increase of 12 feet when compared to his 12-month average. He’ll see some regression eventually — he’s not going to pitch to a sub-1.00 ERA all season — and it’s possible that he’s a bit overpriced if that happens today.
Value
Chris Sale is easily the biggest X-factor on today’s slate. He has the pedigree of being one of the best pitchers in baseball — he posted a 2.11 ERA and 13.50 K/9 last season — but he’s looked like a shell of his former self to start the season. He’s allowed 13 runs over 13 innings pitched, while his K/9 has decreased to a paltry 5.54.
Sale has literally gone from being the best strikeout pitcher in all of baseball to one of the worst.
The biggest red flag has been his lack of velocity. He’s averaged only 90.8 miles per hour on his fastball — a decrease of -4.2 miles per hour when compared to his 12-month average. He also has a tough matchup against the Yankees, who have historically dominated against left-handed pitchers. They ranked first in ISO, second in wRC+ and third in wOBA against southpaws last season.
With all that in mind, why in the world would you ever consider rostering Sale on this slate? For starters, this isn’t the same Yankees squad. They’ve been decimated by injuries to start the season and their current lineup isn’t nearly as imposing as it was last season.
Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chris Sale
More importantly, Sale has seen a price decrease of $2,300 on FanDuel since the start of the season. If he can find his old form, he’s going to provide a lot of value at his current salary. He’s also projected for just 5-8% ownership on FanDuel, making him the ultimately boom-or-bust play for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Kyle Gibson looks like your best option if you’re looking for a true value option at pitcher. He’s priced at $6,400 on DraftKings and has an excellent matchup against the Blue Jays, whose offense has been awful to start the season, ranking just 26th in runs per game. Their projected lineup has also posted a .296 wOBA and 27.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Gibson owns solid marks in opponent implied team total (4.1 runs), moneyline odds (-145) and K Prediction (6.4); pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.00.
Fastballs
Max Fried: He’s been excellent to start the season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +11.50 over his first two starts on DraftKings. He has an excellent matchup against the Diamondbacks — their projected lineup has struggled to a .283 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months — and they’ve historically struggled when playing away from Chase Field.
Jon Gray: He gets one of the biggest park upgrades possible moving from Coors Field to Petco Park, and he’s pitched to a 2.70 ERA over his first two road starts this season. The Padres’ projected lineup is also not that intimidating, posting a wOBA of just .293 against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Robbie Ray: He’ll always have upside for GPPs given his elite K/9 of 11.97 over the past 12 months. He recorded 10 strikeouts over just five innings in his last start, and his K Prediction of 7.2 is the third-highest mark on DraftKings’ main slate.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top rated five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Texas Rangers:
- 1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
- 2. Danny Santana (S)
- 3. Elvis Andrus (R)
- 4. Nomar Mazara (L)
- 5. Joey Gallo (L)
Total salary: $22,000
The Rangers lead the slate with an implied team total of 5.3 runs, which should make them a very popular team to target on this slate. They’re taking on Angels right-hander Jaime Barria, who will be making just his first start of the season. He’s only made one appearance out of the bullpen, but he was roughed up in that outing, allowing batters to compile an average exit velocity of 97 miles per hour and hard hit rate of 50%.
The Rangers also collectively enter today’s contest in great recent form. Only Gallo has posted a negative distance differential among the stacked batters, and each batter has posted a hard hit rate of at least 54%.
The only concern with the Rangers is ownership. Each of the stacked batters is projected for at least 5% ownership, and Choo, Santana and Mazara should all crack double digits. Stacking the Rangers in a conventional 1-5 manner means you’ll have to focus on being contrarian with your remaining roster spots.
The top four-man FanDuel stack also belongs to the Rangers, so let’s focus on the Chicago White Sox instead:
- 1. Leury Garcia (S)
- 2. Yoan Moncada (S)
- 3. Jose Abreu (R)
- 4. Yonder Alonso (L)
Total salary: $12,400
Their implied team total of 5.0 runs is tied for the third highest mark on the slate and has increased by +0.4 runs since opening. The White Sox are also one of the strongest pure values on FanDuel. They own a slate-best Team Value Rating of 86, and Garcia, Abreu, and Alonso each own a Bargain Rating of at least 71%.
They’re taking on Royals right-hander Jorge Lopez, who pitched to a 5.03 ERA last season. He’s been better to start this season, posting a 3.71 ERA through his first three starts. But his advanced metrics suggest he’s due for some regression. He owns a 4.96 FIP, and the White Sox might be able to take advantage on this slate.
Other Batters
Joc Pederson has absolutely demolished right-handed pitchers over the past month, posting a .398 wOBa and .329 ISO. He’s facing a pretty mediocre right-hander in Tyler Mahle, who pitched to a 4.98 ERA last season. Mahle struggled in particular against left-handed batters, allowing them to compile a .415 wOBA and 2.55 HR/9.
This is an absolutely perfect matchup for Pederson, who is projected to occupy the leadoff spot in the Dodgers lineup.
If you’re looking for a cheap batter with upside, consider Ji-Man Choi. He’s priced at $3,600 on DraftKings and will be on the positive side of his batting splits against Orioles’ right-hander Dylan Bundy. He’s posted a .365 wOBA and .212 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months, and the Rays are implied for a strong 5.0 runs.
Jose Ramirez has gotten off to a slow start this season, but he did hit a HR in his last contest. It’s possible that he’s breaking out of his slump, which makes him an interesting target at $4,200 on DraftKings. That’s a really low price tag for someone as talented as Ramirez — he’s posted a .407 wOBA and .299 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months — and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.25 when priced below $4,300 over the past two seasons.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Los Angeles Dodgers OF Joc Pederson
Photo credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA Today Sports
