The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Both DraftKings and FanDuel offer a 15-game all-day and seven-game early slate starting at 2:10 p.m. ET along with a seven-game main slate beginning at 7:10 p.m. ET.
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Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are three pitchers who cost more than $10,000:
- Stephen Strasburg (R) $11,200, WSH vs. SD
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $10,900, LAD vs. PIT
- Jose Berrios (R) $10,100, MIN vs. BAL
Strasburg has been hit or miss this season, allowing zero earned runs in two of his starts and four or more earned runs in three of them. But he’s been better than his 4.11 ERA suggests since his 2.87 xFIP is around 1.5 runs lower.
He’s in a solid spot on Saturday against a projected Padres lineup that has a 25.7% strikeout rate and weak .299 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. They also rank just 25th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), per FanGraphs.
Overall, Stras leads the early slate with his 8.3 K Prediction, and the Nationals have some of the most favorable odds with the Nationals sitting at -170 on the moneyline. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions and odds have averaged a +5.12 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 64.8% Consistency Rating, per our Trends tool.
Kershaw will get his third start of the season Saturday. Through his first two starts, he’s pitched to a 3.35 xFIP with a 27.1% strikeout rate. Up next is an underwhelming Pirates team with a 26.2% strikeout rate and 30th-ranked offense in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers.
His 6.8 K Prediction is the just the fourth-highest mark on the main slate. However, the Dodgers easily have the most favorable Vegas data as the Pirates are implied for 2.9 runs, and Los Angeles boasts a -207 moneyline. Pitchers with comparable odds against teams with similar totals have been incredibly consistent, averaging a +4.05 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 63.6% Consistency Rating.
Given the lack of high-end pitching options on the main slate, Kershaw is likely the safest option.
On the early slate, Berrios is probably the second-safest option after Strasburg. He’s been excellent this season, averaging a +7.42 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 60% Consistency Rating. Berrios’ 6.4 K Prediction pales in comparison to Strasburg’s, but the Twins have a massive -282 moneyline while the Orioles’ 3.1 implied run total is the lowest mark on the early slate.
Additionally, the Orioles don’t exactly have an offense to fear with their 25.5% strikeout rate and .288 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. If you have the salary in cash games, I prefer Strasburg over Berrios, but he’s still a strong option.
Values
The value options are unimpressive on Saturday, and you’re best off paying up for pitching, but Brandon Woodruff could be interesting if you’re looking to load up on bats in tournaments.
Woodruff and the Brewers are +125 underdogs against the Mets. While their projected lineup has a .335 wOBA, their 27.1% strikeout rate is the second-highest mark on the main slate. Overall, Woodruff leads the main slate with his 7.3 K Prediction and has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel among pitchers.
Woodruff has been serviceable this season with his 3.81 xFIP and 27.1% strikeout rate, but he hasn’t really shown a GPP-winning ceiling, so your bats would need to help shoulder the load. Sharp money is all over the Brewers at the time of writing, as they’re receiving 48% of the bets but 82% of the money.
Fastballs
David Price: He’s pitched to a 3.30 xFIP with a 31.9% strikeout rate this season. Now he gets a rematch with the Rays after striking out 10 of them in his last start. Price is a solid tournament play with his 7.7 K Prediction and the second-highest ceiling projection in our models for the early slate.
Noah Syndergaard: His 3.36 xFIP is over two runs lower than his ERA, but I’d still proceed with caution against a Brewers team that has a middling 24.5% strikeout rate and a slate-high .353 wOBA. The Brewers are implied for a meager 3.5 runs, and the Mets check in as -135 moneyline favorites, but it’s worrisome that all the sharp money is pouring in on the Brewers at the time of writing.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man early-slate DraftKings stack from the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Oakland Athletics.
- 1. Robbie Grossman (S)
- 2. Marcus Semien (R)
- 3. Matt Chapman (R)
- 5. Kendrys Morales (S)
Total salary: $15,900
The A’s will get another rematch against Aaron Sanchez, who has the second-worst WHIP (1.58) on the early slate. Sanchez left his last game against the A’s in the fourth inning due to a broken fingernail, but he allowed just one earned run across the four innings he pitched.
Chapman will be on the positive side of his splits, as he’s hit right-handed pitchers to the tune of a .380 wOBA and .246 isolated power (ISO). He’s also in excellent form, posting a 242-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 42% hard-hit rate over the past two weeks.
Morales has been struggling of late, averaging a -2.54 DraftKings Plus/Minus over his past 10 games. That said, he could be due for some progression with his +83 Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL). Over his past seven games, he’s generated plenty of hard contact with his 238-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity and 45% hard-hit rate. Per our Trends tool, hitters with comparable RBBLs and Statcast data have averaged a +1.28 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
The top stack main-slate FanDuel stack in the Batted Ball Model belongs to the Los Angeles Angels.
- 1. Kole Calhoun (L)
- 2. Mike Trout (R)
- 5. Albert Pujols (R)
- 6. Brian Goodwin (L)
Total salary: $14,800
The 1-2-5-6 combination will certainly make this stack unconventional, but it could be a good way to differentiate your roster. One of the reasons this stack rates well is because of opposing pitcher, Jorge Lopez. Over his past two starts, he’s allowed opposing hitters to average a 227-foot batted-ball distance and 91-mph exit velocity.
Trout’s Statcast data doesn’t jump off the page, but he’s demolished right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, hitting them to the tune of a .491 wOBA and .332 ISO. Calhoun has some of the best Statcast data among this group, boasting a 228-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity and 55% hard-hit rate, all of which exceed his 12-month averages.
Other Batters
At the time of writing, Matt Carpenter is popping in the Batted Ball Model once again with his 265-foot average distance and 95-mph exit velocity. He’s currently sporting a distance differential of +21 feet, and leadoff hitters with comparable distance differentials have historically averaged a +1.19 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Right-hander Tyler Mahle has also surrendered an abundance of hard contact over his past two starts, allowing opposing hitters to average a 93-mph exit velocity and 41% hard-hit rate. If we narrow the scope in our Trends tool to hitters with comparable Stacast data and similar matchups, then those hitters have averaged a robust +2.71 DraftKings Plus/Minus since 2015.
Daniel Descalso could be an interesting salary relief option on FanDuel with his 77% Bargain Rating. He presently had the third-highest median projection among second basemen, but he costs just $2,900. He’s been decent against righties over the past 12 months, boasting a .345 wOBA and .183 ISO, but he’s also generating plenty of contact over the past 15 days, evidenced by his 233-foot average distance and 47% hard-hit rate. Rostering Descalso is a cheap way to gain exposure to the Cubs’ 4.9 implied run total.
Eduardo Escobar has been on fire over his past 10 games, averaging a +4.17 FanDuel Plus/Minus. He’s also smashed righties, flaunting a .344 wOBA and .241 ISO. He’ll be squaring off against Yu Darvish, who has been beatable this season, pitching to an abysmal 5.13 xFIP and allowing multiple earned runs in every start this season.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Stephen Strasburg
Photo credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
