The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a split slate: There’s a two-game early slate starting at 2:10 p.m. ET and an eight-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Two pitchers stand out above the rest on today’s slate:
- Blake Snell (L) $11,600, TB @ CWS
- Justin Verlander (R) $10,700, HOU vs. NYY
Snell is the most expensive pitcher on this slate, and he’s coming off an absolute gem in his last outing. He allowed just two hits and one walk while striking out 13 batters over seven innings against the Rockies. His Statcast data from his first two starts is also impressive, limiting opposing batters to an average distance of 198 feet and hard-hit rate of just 25%. Both numbers represent significant decreases when compared to his 12-month averages.
He’s in an elite spot against the White Sox. Their projected lineup has struggled to a .301 wOBA and 26.7% strikeout rate over the past 12 months, and their implied team total of 3.4 runs is tied for the lowest mark on the slate. Snell also leads the slate in K Prediction (9.5) and moneyline odds (-152), and pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.22 on FanDuel (per our Trends tool).
Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Blake Snell
Snell should be the mega chalk on the early slate.
Things aren’t so cut and dry for Verlander on the main slate. He’s taking on the Yankees, who were one of the toughest matchups in baseball last season. They ranked fourth in wOBA and wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, and their ISO of .195 ranked third. This isn’t exactly the same squad at the moment — Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks and Miguel Andujar are all on the injured list — but they still have plenty of guys in the lineup who can do damage.
Verlander has also posted some unimpressive Statcast numbers through his first two starts. He’s allowed opposing batters to post a hard-hit rate of 55%, a 25% increase of his 12-month average. His poor Statcast data caught up to him in his last start, where the Rangers were able to get to him for four runs over just four innings.
Still, the pitching options on this slate are pretty uninspiring, and Verlander leads the main slate in K Prediction, moneyline odds and K Prediction. The difficult matchup also results in a pretty reasonable salary across the industry, so he’s a tough fade for cash games.
Values
Madison Bumgarner had a down year in 2018, but he’s gotten off to a nice start. He’s allowed just two earned runs through his first 13 innings, recording 13 strikeouts over that same span. His Statcast data isn’t nearly as impressive — he’s underperformed his 12-month averages in distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate over his first two starts — but his Vegas data on Monday’s slate is impressive nonetheless.
Bumgarner owns an opponent implied team total of 3.4 runs, which is tied with Verlander for the top mark on the slate. This will also be his second matchup against the Padres this season, and he recorded nine Ks against them in his first outing.
Vincent Velasquez will be making his first start of the season against the Nationals. He also always has upside for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) given his ability to miss bats. He’s averaged a K/9 of 9.96 over the past 12 months, and his K Prediction of 6.6 ranks fourth on the slate. He’s very reasonably priced at $6,600 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%; pitchers with comparable K Predictions and salaries have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.60.
Julio Teheran has been impressive through his first two starts. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each outing, thanks in part to an average K/9 of 12.60. He has the toughest fantasy matchup of the day in Coors against the Rockies, but their projected lineup has posted a slate-worst splits-adjusted strikeout rate of 29.9%. His K Prediction of 8.0 trails only Verlander’s on the main slate, giving him plenty of upside for GPPs at $5,800 on DraftKings.
Fastballs
- Carlos Rodon: A once highly-touted prospect who could be finally figuring things out, Rodon has allowed just two earned runs and has racked up 15 strikeouts over his first 11.1 innings. He also has a nice matchup against the Rays.
- Hyun-jin Ryu: He’s dominated over his first two starts, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.81 on DraftKings, and his Statcast data from those outings is impressive. The only concern is his lack of upside given that the Dodgers don’t typically let their starters pitch deep into games.
- Kyle Freeland: He’s pitching in Coors, but Freeland actually dominated when pitching at home last season. He posted a 2.40 ERA and increased his K/9 to 8.26, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +6.94 on DraftKings over 15 home starts.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack using the Bales Model belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
- 1. Ben Zobrist (S)
- 3. Anthony Rizzo (L)
- 4. Javier Baez (R)
- 5. Kyle Schwarber (L)
- 6. Willson Contreras (R)
Total salary: $23,000
The Cubs are implied for just 4.0 runs on the early slate, but the early slate is largely expected to be low scoring. Their implied team total still ranks second on the slate. They have a tough matchup against Pirates’ right-hander Jameson Taillon, who pitched to a 3.20 ERA in 2018. That said, he’s posted a FIP of 4.06 and a K/9 of just 6.23 through his first two starts this season, so the Cubs should be able to put the ball in play at a bare minimum.
The majority of the stacked batters enter this game in solid recent form as well. Only Zobrist has underperformed his 12-month Statcast data, and Contreras has torn the cover off the ball through his first seven games. One positive working in Zobrist’s favor is he will be on the positive side of his batting splits: He’s posted a .356 wOBA and .149 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Oakland A’s:
- 1. Robbie Grossman (S)
- 3. Stephen Piscotty (R)
- 4. Kendrys Morales (S)
- 5. Chad Pinder (R)
Total salary: $11,200
The A’s are implied for 5.4 runs, which is the highest non-Coors mark on the slate. Their batters are also much more reasonably priced than the Coors batters, and their Team Value Rating of 70 is the top mark on FanDuel. Morales and Pinder in particular stand out as excellent values, with each owning a Bargain Rating of at least 96%.
Credit: Kiel Maddox-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kendrys Morales
They have a fantastic matchup against Orioles’ right-hander Andrew Cashner, who has been roughed up through his first two outings. He’s pitched to a 5.40 ERA, and his peripheral numbers don’t paint a pretty picture for progression moving forward.
Other Batters
Whit Merrifield has an interesting matchup against Felix Hernandez, who is clearly on decline at this point in his career. He pitched to a 5.55 ERA last season, and the Royals are implied for a healthy 4.7 runs.
Merrifield can do a little damage with the bat, but what makes him particularly appealing is his ability on the base paths. He’s averaged .292 steals per game over the past 12 months, which is the second-best mark on the slate. His $4,500 salary on DraftKings also comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Mallex Smith is another terror on the bases who is worth some consideration. He’s projected to occupy the leadoff spot in the Mariners lineup, and they’re implied for 4.9 runs against Royals’ right-hander Homer Bailey, who has pitched to a dreadful 6.09 ERA last season, giving Smith one of the best matchups on the slate.
Joc Pederson enters Monday’s contest against Miles Mikolas in elite recent form. He’s posted an average distance of 240 feet, exit velocity of 99 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 56% through his first nine games, all three of which represent sizable increases when compared to his 12-month averages. Mikolas posted a respectable ERA last season, but his advanced stats suggested he was due for regression. That’s happened through his first two starts this season, where he’s posted a 7.20 ERA.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Astros Pitcher Justin Verlander (35)
Photo credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
