The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers on today’s slate own a salary of at least $10,000 on FanDuel:
- Patrick Corbin (L) $10,800, WSH @ NYM
- Chris Paddack (R) $10,300, SD vs. ARI
- Mike Soroka (R) $10,000, ATL @ SF
Corbin has been excellent in his first season with the Nationals, pitching to a 2.91 ERA and 10.59 K/9. The result is an average Plus/Minus of +7.89 on FanDuel. He’s coming off an absolute gem in his last outing, tallying 11 strikeouts while allowing just one run over eight innings against the Mets.
He’s taking on the Mets again today for the fourth time this season, who have been abysmal offensively of late. They’ve averaged just 3.1 runs per game over their past 16 contests and have been shut out by the Marlins in each of their past two games. Their projected lineup has also struggled vs. left-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .299 wOBA.
Credit: Geoff Burke-USA Today Sports. Pictured: Patrick Corbin
Corbin leads all pitchers with a K Prediction of 8.0, giving him the highest ceiling on the slate.
Paddack has made just eight starts at the MLB level, but he’s wasted no time making an impact. He’s pitched to an elite 1.99 ERA and 9.73 K/9 this season despite the fact that he skipped AAA entirely. Pitching in the big leagues is not supposed to be that easy. He owns the top Vegas data on today’s slate, and it’s not even all that close. He owns an opponent implied team total of 3.0 runs, and no other pitcher has a mark below 3.5.
His Statcast data from his past two starts is also solid. His limited opponents to an average distance of 199 feet, which represents a 15-foot decrease when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable opponent implied team totals and distance differentials have historically dominating, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.62 on FanDuel (per our Trends tool).
He’s one of the best pure values at pitcher on DraftKings, where his $9,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.
Like Paddack, Soroka is another youngster who has dominated at the MLB level right out of the gate. He’s made six starts this season and has pitched to a ridiculous 0.98 ERA. He’s obviously due for some regression moving forward, but his 2.88 FIP suggests he’s been excellent at just 21 years old.
He has a friendly matchup against the Giants, who have been anemic offensively against right-handers over the past 12 months. Their projected lineup has posted a .263 wOBA over that span, which is the lowest splits-adjusted mark on the slate. Soroka should also benefit from getting to face them in San Francisco, which has historically been one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball. His Park Factor of 94 is the top mark on the slate.
The only black mark on Soroka’s resume is his lack of strikeout upside. He currently has a K Prediction of just 5.5, but that might be underselling him a little. He’s increased his K/9 to 8.35 this season after averaging a K/9 of just 7.55 over the past 12 months. Soroka still isn’t going to get confused for a strikeout pitcher anytime soon, but he does have some upside in that department.
Value
Brad Peacock has struggled to find a consistent role with the Astros and is often asked to split time between the rotation and the bullpen. That said, he’s provided nice fantasy upside when given the opportunity to start, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.01 over the past three seasons.
He’s in a fantastic spot against the White Sox, whose projected lineup has struggled vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .299 wOBA and 25.7% strikeout rate, and their implied team total of 3.6 runs is tied for the third lowest mark on the slate. Peacock’s moneyline odds of -218 rank first on the slate, while his K Prediction of 7.5 ranks third.
He’s also limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 198 feet, which represents a decrease of 21 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data, K Predictions and distance differentials have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.60 on DraftKings.
He checks all the boxes on this slate.
J.A. Happ has struggled this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of -4.13 on DraftKings, but facing the Orioles could be just what the doctor ordered. Their offense has struggled vs. left-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .277 wOBA and 25.0% strikeout rate, and Happ has solid Vegas marks on today’s slate: 4.1 opponent implied team total, -177 moneyline odds.
He a solid SP2 option on DraftKings at $8,000.
Fastballs
Luke Weaver: He has a strong matchup against the Padres, whose projected lineup has struggled to a .283 wOBA and 26.1% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. He also gets a massive park upgrade moving from Chase Field to Petco Park.
Yu Darvish: He’s struggled this year, pitching to a 5.14 ERA, but he remains an elite strikeout pitcher. He’s posted an 11.79 K/9 through his first nine starts, giving him a strong ceiling against the Phillies.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Texas Rangers:
- 1. Shin-Soo Choo (L)
- 2. Danny Santana (L)
- 5. Joey Gallo (L)
- 6. Rougned Odor (L)
- 7. Asdrubal Cabrera (S)
Total salary: $23,700
The Rangers’ are currently implied for 6.1 runs, which is the top mark on the slate by a significant margin. Their batters are also reasonably priced considering their massive total, resulting in a Team Value Rating of 83 on DraftKings.
Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joey Gallo
They’re taking on Mariners’ right-hander Mike Leake, who has been an extremely mediocre this season. His pitched to a 4.89 FIP while maintaining a K/9 of just 6.83.
Each of the stacked batters will also have the splits advantage against him, and all five of them have performed better against right-handers than left-handers over the past 12 months. They also enter the contest in good recent form, with only Gallo failing to outperform his 12-month Statcast data over the past 15 days.
The Rangers also own the top four-man stack on FanDuel, so let focus on their opponents instead:
- 1. Dee Gordon (L)
- 2. Mitch Haniger (R)
- 3. Edwin Encarnacion (R)
- 4. Domingo Santana (R)
Total salary: $14,200
This stack should command much lower ownership than the top Rangers’ stack, which makes them an appealing pivot. They benefit from the same elite hitting conditions in Arlington, and the odds have actually moved in their favor despite receiving just 30% of the bets. As a result, their implied team total has increased by +0.3 runs since opening.
The stacked batters also enter this game in excellent recent form. Each batter has outperformed their 12-month average distance over the past 15 days, headlined by Santana’s mark of 258 feet. Santana will also be on the positive side of his batting splits against Mike Minor, and he’s posted a .386 wOBA and .310 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months. He’s someone who should be on your radar even if you aren’t stacking the Mariners.
Other Batters
Kyle Schwarber is going to occupy the leadoff spot for the Cubs, which makes him an interesting option vs. Jake Arrieta. Leadoff hitters historically provide the highest Plus/Minus in MLB DFS, and Schwarber is always capable of hitting a ball into the stratosphere. He’s posted a .230 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months and is very affordable at $3,500 on DraftKings and $2,700 on FanDuel.
The Braves likely won’t be on a ton of people’s radar tonight, which makes Ronald Acuna a really intriguing target. He’s on the positive side of his batting splits vs. Andrew Suarez, posting a .437 wOBA and .328 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months. He’s also obliterated the baseball over the past 15 days, posting a 260-foot distance, 98 mile per hour exit velocity and 58% hard-hit rate.
If you need a cheap option on DraftKings to fill out your lineup, consider Gerardo Parra. He’s priced at $3,400, but his 11 Pro Trends are one of the higher marks on the slate. Comparably priced players have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.48 with a similar number of Pro Trends, and he’ll be on the positive side of his batting splits against Wilmer Font.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Astros P Brad Peacock (41)
Photo credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
