The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features an eleven-game slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tarik Skubal ($10,000) Detroit Tigers (-142) vs. Texas Rangers
Before we get into this one, it’s worth mentioning that there’s some potential weather issues in Detroit on Wednesday. However, from the looks of it, starting pitchers should be fine. A late start is possible, as is an early ending, but there should be a long enough window that it won’t impact a typical start’s length.
Although maybe not a typical-length Skubal start. The Tigers ace has been dominant so far this season, building off an excellent 2023 campaign. He’s added about half a mph to his average fastball while cutting his ERA down to 2.08. If anything, he’s been unlucky, as his xERA sits at a ridiculous 1.58.
He brings plenty of upside as well, with a strikeout rate over 30% after finishing 2023 at 32.9%. While he has a theoretically tough matchup with the Rangers’ top-ten offense, Texas has been worse against lefties like Skubal in 2024. They have bottom-ten numbers in wRC+ and strikeout rate against southpaws this season. While that’s a fairly small sample size, it also makes sense given that their best hitter is the left-handed Corey Seager.
All things considered, Skubal is the best play on the slate today. He’s tied for the lead in median projection in the FantasyLabs models, and Texas is tied for the lowest Vegas total on the slate.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Steven Matz ($6,700) St. Louis Cardinals (-150) at Oakland A’s
Matz hasn’t been nearly as good as his 1.80 ERA through three starts implies. Depending on which advanced metric you prefer, his ERA “should” be somewhere in the fours — so he’s been just as lucky as good. Part of the reason is that most ERA indicators put a premium on strikeouts, and his rate sits at just 12.9% so far this year.
The good news is his strikeout rate is due for some positive regression, as he projected in the low 20% range coming into the season, with a swinging strike rate to support it. The even better news is that betting markets — which certainly factor in things like pitching luck — still have Oakland implied for just 3.7 runs today.
That’s essentially the same as the Rangers against Skubal, with Matz coming in at more than $3,000 cheaper. While he has considerably less upside thanks to his strikeout rate, we can live with that at his price point. He’s an excellent option in cash games or lineups building around high-priced and high-upside hitters.
Matz leads THE BAT projections in Pts/Sal on Wednesday.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Pablo Lopez ($8,800) Minnesota Twins (-119) at Baltimore Orioles
Both Lopez and Freddy Peralta ($9,300) have similar underlying numbers today. Both righties have ERA and SEIRA numbers within 0.1 of each other, with strikeout rates hovering around 30%. Both are facing top-ten offenses with low strikeout rates as well.
However, for some reason, Lopez is $500 cheaper and projecting for considerably less ownership on Wednesday’s slate. That’s especially confusing considering Baltimore has a lower implied total than Peralta’s opponent, the Padres.
Sure, Lopez has an elevated ERA of 4.86 through three games this season. His underlying numbers are all right in line with his 2023 stats, though. Last season, he finished with a 3.66 ERA, and we should expect somewhere in that ballpark again. Keep an eye on the ownership projections as we get closer to lock, though. Both pitchers mentioned are similar enough that whoever is less popular is essentially the best play by default.
Lopez narrowly edges out Skubal for the highest ceiling projection in the FantasyLabs models.
Editor’s Note: Bryse Wilson is starting for the Brewers.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
There’s never really a bad time to stack the Dodgers. Their lineup starts with arguably the best hitter in baseball in Mookie Betts, who leads the league in batting average and wOBA to start the season. Through 20 games, he’s also chipped in 22 runs, 18 RBI, and three steals — leading to an average of 13.9 DraftKings points per game.
The first half of the lineup is stacked beyond Betts as well, and they have a great matchup today at home against Washington. Jake Irvin ($5,700) is getting the nod for the Nationals — his career ERA through two seasons is 4.57.
Los Angeles has a six-run implied total, highest on the slate Wednesday. They are, as always, hard to squeeze under the salary cap, but they could be worth it if you can get there.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Christian Walker 1B ($5,100) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs (Jordan Wicks)
I think projections are a bit low on Walker today. He and the Diamondbacks have an excellent matchup against Cubs lefty Jordan Wicks ($6,900), who comes into the game with a career ERA of 4.75. Walker is coming off back-to-back 30 home run seasons and is on a similar pace this year.
More importantly, his power numbers are way better against lefties, as I discovered via PlateIQ:
His .277 ISO against lefties since the start of last season is ridiculous. For some context, only eight batters finished with a higher number overall last season. Compared to those hitters (which include names like Betts and Ohtani) he’s comparatively cheap, making him a strong play today.
Dominic Fletcher OF ($2,200) Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals (Brady Singer)
Through just under 150 big league plate appearances, the 26-year-old Fletcher is hitting .288 with a .756 OPS. Not elite numbers by any stretch, but check his price tag. He’s nearly minimum price despite hitting first in the White Sox lineup.
Chicago is implied for a poor 3.7 runs, but that’s still too good of a value to pass up, especially on a day with high-priced pitchers projecting well and an expensive Dodgers stack. Fletcher allows access to those players while leading THE BAT projections in Pts/Sal among all players.
Sal Frelick OF ($3,600) Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres (Michael King)
Frelick leads the FantasyLabs Tournament Model in rating among hitters. He’s effectively a rich man’s version of Fletcher today, a young lead-off hitter with promising early numbers.
But Frelick is leading off for a team implied for 4.6 runs. He’s also hit slightly better than Fletcher while adding ten steals through his first 70 games in the majors. Both of those make him worth the increased price tag at a low single-digit ownership projection.
