The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Sunday features an 11-game slate starting at 1:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Carlos Rodon ($8,700) New York Yankees (-315) vs. Chicago White Sox
It’s an interesting slate at the top, because there are plenty of good pitching options but not one clear great choice. The few top pitchers each have strong numbers in some areas, but we could poke holes in their projection based on the matchup or some underlying number.
For Rodon, the issue is two-fold. First, his ERA predictors are all in the mid-to-high fours despite his 3.31 ERA. Second, his strikeout rate sits at a mediocre 23.3% this season. While neither of those are bad by any stretch, that’s not typically what we’re looking for in our top pitcher.
However, the matchup Sunday makes up for a lot of that. The White Sox are by far the worst offense in baseball, with a wRC+ of 73 on the season. No other team is below 82. But that’s not all; they’re somehow even worse against lefties, with a 57 wRC+.
That means the ERA regression that’s likely to hit Rodon at some point probably won’t come from this Double-A offense. Rodon has the best Vegas data on the slate, and he leads THE BAT in median and ceiling projection.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Sean Manaea ($7,700) New York Mets (-141) at Miami Marlins
The other New York starter Sunday has a very similar case as Rodon. He comes into the contest with a 3.05 ERA but most of his underlying numbers in the mid-fours, a strikeout rate in the low 20s, and an excellent matchup.
The Marlins are the second-worst offense in baseball, both overall and against left-handed pitching. Like with Rodon, that means Manaea is unlikely to suffer from negative regression Sunday, though he’s due some down the line.
The upside is a bit less for Manaea, as both his strikeout rate and his opponentsa’ are on the lower side. He’s not exactly “cheap” at $7,700, but his likeliest outcome is still considerably better than that. That makes him an excellent cash-game play, though I’d probably look elsewhere to a higher-upside pitcher for GPPs.
He’s tied for the lead in Pts/Sal projection in the FantasyLabs models, while THE BAT has a more pessimistic view of his chances Sunday.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Corbin Burnes ($9,600) Baltimore Orioles (-152) vs. Seattle Mariners
Corbin Burnes has been elite this season, with a 2.68 ERA and excellent underlying numbers. He trails only Tigers ace Tarik Skubal for AL Cy Young odds, and the opposing Mariners have just a 3.3-run implied total.
However, that hasn’t translated well to DFS. He’s averaging just 18.5 DraftKings points per game, thanks to his strikeout rate plummeting to 23.5% from his career average of 30%. Thanks to a combination of that and his high salary, he’s outside the top five in projected ownership on Sunday’s slate.
This could be the day that strikeout rate turns around. That’s because Seattle has the highest strikeout rate in the league at an absurd 27.9% (overall) and 28.8% against righties. Burnes is also due for an uptick based on his own merits, as his swinging-strike rate suggests a somewhat-better K% in the long run.
That makes him a high-upside option Sunday, at fairly low ownership. He’s my favorite pitcher for GPPs.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
The Royals put up 11 runs in their first two games against Oakland this series and are implied for 5.2 Sunday, the second highest total on the slate. There’s a lot to like about targeting them, particularly the excellent weather; the conditions in Kansas City have historically boosted scoring by around 20%, per Rotogrinder’s Weather Edge tool.
They also have a winnable matchup against JP Sears ($6,600) of Oakland. Sears has an ERA of just under 4.0, but that’s propped up by having home games in a pitcher-friendly park. Now traveling to Kansas City, the Park Factor score of 63 for hitters makes run prevention considerably tougher.
With Sears having FIP, xFIP, and SIERA numbers in the upper-fours, he’s due for some regression Sunday, which would be great for the Royals and their reasonably cheap hitter stack.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Tyler O’Neill OF ($5,500) Boston Red Sox at St. Louis Cardinals (Matthew Liberatore)
O’Neill is in the midst of a breakout season, with 10 home runs and an OPS of just under .900 so far. On Sunday, his Red Sox are taking on lefty Matthew Liberatore ($6,300) of the Cardinals. I used PlateIQ to see if that’s a good or bad thing for O’Neill:
I’d call that good. O’Neil is pricey today, but he has excellent splits against lefties — and Liberatore is considerably worse against righties — justifying his price tag.
Abraham Toro 2B/3B ($3,800) Oakland A’s at Kansas City Royals (Brady Singer)
Obviously, the field and weather conditions cited as a reason to roster the Royals also apply to the visiting A’s. They have a tougher pitching matchup, but they have actually been the slightly better overall offense this season of the two teams.
That makes Toro underpriced for his leadoff spot in their lineup. He’s hitting .298 on the season, with two steals and four home runs. In addition, his positional versatility makes him easy to maneuver around almost any stack, making him a solid one-off play or foundation for A’s mini-stacks.
