The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Sunday features a nine-game slate starting at 1:35 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tarik Skubal ($10,000) Detroit Tigers (-155) vs. Kansas City Royals
The progression of Tarik Skubal over the past few seasons has been fun to watch. Originally a ninth-round pick, he made his Major League debut in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and finished with a 5.63 ERA.
Every season since then, his ERA has dropped. The fact that he’s continued that trend into 2024 is especially impressive, considering his 2.80 number last season. This year he’s sporting an excellent 1.82, with a strikeout rate north of 30%.
While his ERA predictors are slightly worse — ranging from 2.12-2.50 — Skubal has largely earned his excellent numbers this year. The AL Cy Young frontrunner now has a matchup with the upstart Royals, who for all their success still rank 21st in wRC+ on the season.
That’s clearly advantage Skubal, and Vegas has the Royals with the lowest team total on the slate Sunday. The biggest concern is the weather here in Detroit. However, it looks like there should be a dry window long enough to get this game in, or at least the first six or seven innings.
That makes Skubal the top play on the slate Sunday. He leads the THE BAT median and and ceiling projections.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Kevin Gausman ($8,300) Toronto Blue Jays (-115) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
To be honest, I’m not seeing what our models — and to a lesser extent, betting markets — are seeing on Gausman on Sunday. He leads the FantasyLabs projections for median and ceiling, with the best Pts/Sal in both systems. Gausman and the Blue Jays are projected to hold the Dodgers — the best offense in baseball by wRC+ — to just 4.0 runs Sunday.
That’s despite Gausman coming into the game with an ERA of 5.57. His underlying metrics are slightly better with an xFIP and SIERA in the low fours, but still nothing to write home about. What concerns me the most is his dip in strikeouts and swinging strikes: his strikeout rate is below 20%, with just a 10.8% swinging strike rate.
To his credit, his BABIP is a bit high at .348, so he’s due for some regression. However, the Dodgers aren’t typically the matchup where positive regression hits for pitchers. I won’t be playing him myself, but both projection systems love Gausman at his price tag Sunday, so he’s worth investigating at the very least.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Albert Suarez ($8,000) Baltimore Orioles (-185) vs. Oakland A’s
Remember when DraftKings left Suarez as the minimum price for two straight starts, in which he combined for 11 scoreless innings? That was fun. Unfortunately, they’ve caught their mistake and priced Suarez appropriately Sunday — but he’s still an excellent play.
The 34 year old is a fun story. He spent the last few seasons in Korea and Japan, having last pitched in the MLB in 2017 when Baltimore signed him this offseason. He’s rewarded them with an excellent start, and now gets a third opportunity Sunday.
While his ERA of 0.00 is clearly unsustainable, his 2.63 xERA is also very strong. On the plus side, his strikeout rate is just 20.9% despite a swinging strike rate of 17.7%, so he’s due some positive regression on that front.
That’s likely to come Sunday against an Oakland team that strikes out at a 27% clip, and is a bottom-five offense by wRC+. The price spike for Suarez should keep his ownership limited, making him my favorite GPP play of the day.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays:
The Rays implied total of 4.8 runs is second only to the Orioles on Sunday’s slate, and it’s the highest among visiting teams. That makes them a strong choice for top stack Sunday, especially considering their fairly cheap price tag.
Given the lack of cheap pitchers projecting well, we’ll need to save some salary on bats Sunday, which is where Tampa Bay comes in. This stack checks in at just under $4,600 per player, a pretty reasonable number considering their strong team total.
They have a solid matchup with Erick Fedde ($7,500), another arm returning from time overseas. While Fedde has a 2.73 ERA, he also has an unsustainably low .249 BABIP — meaning he’s been more lucky than good.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Willson Contreras C ($4,800) St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets (Jose Quintana)
Happy Willson Contreras against a lefty day! The Cardinals catcher continues to have excellent splits against southpaws, a trend that’s been fairly consistent throughout his career. I’ll let PlateIQ paint the full picture:
Will Benson OF ($4,100) Cincinnati Reds at Texas Rangers (Dane Dunning)
I want some exposure to the Reds-Rangers game Sunday in Texas. The game has a solid 8.5-run total, and the best combination of Park Factor and Weather Rating on the slate.
The visiting Reds have a solid 4.1 implied total, making the price tag on leadoff hitter Will Benson too cheap. I like the matchup here for Benson against Rangers righty Dane Dunning ($6,800). Dunning has historically struggled against lefty hitters, with a career xERA more than a full run higher than his mark against righties.
With Benson holding a career OPS of .835 against right-handed pitching (but just .490 against lefties) the platoon splits work on both sides here.
Ezequiel Duran 1B/3B ($2,800) Texas Rangers vs. Cincinnati Reds (Andrew Abbott)
We need to save salary somewhere here. If I’m taking a shot on a cheap player for GPPs, I’d like it to be one with some upside — and that’s Duran. His 32% strikeout rate is ugly, but his prospect report paints the picture of a free-swinging slugger with solid power.
Given the conditions in Texas on Sunday, that’s as good a time as any to take a shot on a bargain player with some pop. Similar logic works for the Tigers second baseman Colt Keith ($2,400), though playing both young infielders together is a bit thin.
