The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features an eight-game slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Framber Valdez ($8,800) Houston Astros (-205) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Valdez is the clear leader in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT models in median and ceiling projection. Coupled with his reasonable salary, that makes him the obvious top play on Monday’s slate. That’s driven in large part by the Vegas odds, which are extremely favorable for Valdez and the Astros.
The Angels 3.4-run implied total is the second-lowest on the slate, and the Astros are more than two-to-one favorites. Valdez’s numbers certainly justify that, as he comes into the game with a 2.95 ERA and largely similar underlying numbers. His 21.2% strikeout rate leaves much to be desired, but he doesn’t need massive upside at his price point.
I have some slight concerns about the matchup, as the Angels have actually been a top-ten offense against left-handed pitching this season. Of course, a good chunk of that number was earned when Mike Trout was still in the lineup, and he’s still far away from making his return. I’ll trust the oddsmakers on the Angels’ chances here.
Still, between his limited upside and slate-leading ownership projection, Valdez is better suited for cash games than GPPs. There are higher-risk, higher-reward options out there that should be less popular.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Joe Ross ($5,800) Milwaukee Brewers (-135) at Miami Marlins
Both pitchers in the Brewers-Marlins game come in under $6,000 in salary today, making them badly underpriced considering the eight-run total. Between Ross and Ryan Weathers ($5,500), I slightly prefer Ross, though both are strong options.
Ross has a 4.61 ERA through eight starts this season, but both his FIP and xERA are right around 4.00. Additionally, while he has just a 19.3% strikeout rate, his 13% swinging strike rate suggests he “should” have a K rate somewhere in the mid-to-high 20s.
He also gets to face the Marlins, the 28th-ranked offense in baseball this season. Ultimately, that’s why I prefer him to Weathers. Weathers has similar numbers but a much tougher matchup in the Brewers.
Ross leads THE BAT in Pts/Sal projection, while coming in just behind Weathers in the FantasyLabs models. Both are excellent SP2 options for all contest types, or they could be paired together to free up a ton of salary for hitters.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Pablo Lopez ($9,500) Minnesota Twins (-165) at Washington Nationals
Lopez has arguably the highest upside on Monday’s slate thanks to his slate-leading K prediction driven by his 28.7% strikeout rate. He also has a solid matchup against the Nationals, a bottom-five offense implied for just 3.4 runs today.
However, by virtue of being slightly more expensive while projecting slightly worse than Valdez, his ownership projection is extremely reasonable. The extra $700 in salary isn’t hard to come by if rostering one of the underpriced pitchers, and it is well worth saving 10% or more in ownership.
Thanks to his considerably higher strikeout rate, I’d be willing to bet on Lopez to outscore Valdez straight up today. That makes the extra cost worth saving on the ownership — and also makes Lopez my favorite GPP pitcher. There’s a similar case to be made for the Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,500), whose even higher price will make him even less popular today.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
We’d always like to stack the Dodgers, as their ridiculously stacked lineup features four of the top 25 hitters in the MLB by wRC+. The pitching value on today’s slate makes it fairly easy to do, which should lead to them being a popular (but hard to fade) lineup.
Their 5.2-run implied total leads the slate by a comfortable margin, and it’s borderline impossible to poke any holes in their projection.
Don’t overthink this one. We can find other ways to get contrarian while building around this lineup.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jo Adell OF ($3,500) Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros (Framber Valdez)
One of those ways to get contrarian is by building around Angels hitters. Valdez will likely be the most popular pitcher on the slate, so that — and the Angels’ general futility — will keep ownership down. However, the Halos have been much better against lefties as I mentioned in the entry on Valdez. I used PlateIQ to figure out who’s driving that discrepancy:
Adell clearly stands out. While it’s a fairly small sample size, he’s raked against lefties. He’s my favorite way to get leverage against Valdez-led lineups.
Yordan Alvarez OF ($5,400) Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels (Reid Detmers)
I’m hoping the lefty-on-lefty matchup keeps much of the field away from the Astros’ power hitters today. That’s because Angels starter Reid Detmers ($7,300) has actually been worse against fellow lefties this year — and because Alvarez has killed southpaws.
He’s hitting .344 with a .901 OPS against left-handed pitching this year, an anomaly for a lefty hitter. Houston’s implied total trails only the Dodgers, but they should be considerably less popular thanks to the perceived bad matchup.
Carlos Correa SS ($4,000) Minnesota Twins at Washington Nationals (Mitchell Parker)
I have some interest in the Twins lineup today, as they’re implied for a solid 4.6 runs in Washington. Much of that interest is because of Correa, who’s seen his salary dip all the way to $4,000 despite a solid year at the plate.
He comes into the game hitting .267 with a .341 wOBA, but his expected wOBA (xWOBA) is nearly 50 points higher. That’s largely due to a HR/FB ratio of just 7.4% — about 10% below his career average. That should regress, especially considering his hard hit, fly ball, and barrel rates are all roughly in line with his lifetime numbers.
