FantasyLabs is a data company. With our free Trends tool and Player Models, you can leverage our advanced statistics and premium exclusive metrics to identify players to use in your daily fantasy sports lineups.
Each weekday, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players in the day’s main slate.
Batters
With today’s game at Coors available on only the all-day and early slates, we need to look elsewhere for bats on the main slate this evening. The good news is that, at the time of this writing, the Red Sox are actually projected to score more runs (6.1) than either team playing in Denver this afternoon. [Editor’s Note: Excuse me, this fell out of your pocket. I think it’s your homerism.]
Seeing a team projected to score six runs in a game not hosted at Coors Field is pretty rare. And on a slate that lacks true ace pitchers, many DFS players will likely look to Fenway tonight. So does it all begin and end in Boston? — or are there other batters we should consider this evening? Let’s dive.
Implied Run Total: 6.1, Red Sox Batters
As I’ve already mentioned, the Red Sox sit alone in the stratosphere tonight. How rare is it for a team to be projected to score six or more runs in a non-Coors game? Using our free Trends tool, I created this trend to find the answer. Since the beginning of 2014, only 16 teams have qualified (not including tonight’s Red Sox). Going back to 2012, batters in these games average a Plus/Minus of +1.89 on FanDuel.
A handful of those games also took place at Fenway:
Park Factor: 81, Lefties at Yankee Stadium
The team with the best chance to outscore the Red Sox tonight might be the Yankees, who will likely deploy their usual lefty-heavy lineup against the right-handed pitcher Yovani Gallardo. No matter how hard you look, you won’t find much to like about Gallardo’s 2016 numbers, which are worse than his career averages in nearly every possible way.
Right now, New York’s Team Value Rating on both sites sits just a shade below Boston’s. Keep an eye on that metric as it is updated throughout the day on our Vegas page.
Recent Batted-Ball Distance (Ft): 314, Giancarlo Stanton
Stats over the last 15 days are limited to a smaller sample due to the MLB All-Star break last week, but Stanton’s numbers are still worth highlighting. To put Stanton’s recent performance into context, here is his spray chart against righties since 2014, pulled from FanGraphs:
Now, consider that the fence in far-left at Citizens Bank Park, where Stanton plays tonight, is 328 feet from home plate. Now, look at Stanton’s average batted-ball distance again. Now, notice that he only costs $3,600 on FanDuel. Now, roster him.
Strikeouts per At-Bat (SO/AB): 0.089, Andrelton Simmons
Andrelton Simmons’ Upside over the past fantasy year has been eight percent, which is one of the worst scores among regular batters on tonight’s slate. However, if you were looking to find one nice thing to say about Simmons, you could say this: He doesn’t strikeout much. That talent may come in handy tonight against Martin Perez, whose 4.8 SO/9 is the worst mark among tonight’s starting pitchers. Simmons will likely put the ball in play and he costs the minimum salary on FanDuel, making him a cheap option to consider.
Long-Term Exit Velocity (MPH): 94, Chris Carter
Since we are a bit limited in advanced data over the past 15 days, let’s look at advanced data over the past 365 days. Tied for the lead in exit velocity over the fantasy year is Chris Carter, who faces the lefty Jeff Locke tonight in Pittsburgh. Many will rightfully gravitate toward Big Papi at first base, making Carter an attractive contrarian option. Carter doesn’t have Ortiz-level split numbers, but they are still very solid.
PITCHERS
Can’t we just look at some more bats? No? Okay . . .
Salary: $10,500 (FD) & $10,600 (DK), Drew Pomeranz
It’s not often that the most expensive pitcher on a slate is projected to allow four runs to his opponent, but welcome to tonight. Don’t get me wrong: Pomeranz has been great in 2016. But tonight he will find himself pitching at Fenway Park (Park Factor of 50) instead of Petco Park, and he will have to face a designated hitter instead of a pitcher. With that in mind, consider that he is currently more expensive than he has ever been on FanDuel. On DraftKings, he’s ‘only’ at his third-highest price point ever.
Strikeout Prediction: 7.2, Jaime Garcia
Garcia is a close second to Pomeranz (7.8) in K Prediction. Garcia’s SO/9 of 7.5 actually ranks near the middle of the pack, but the Padres’ projected starting lineup is striking out in close to a third of its at-bats. Make sure to double-check this metric once the Padres’ official lineup has been released, but for now Garcia looks as good of an option as any. Also consider that Garcia has historically pitched much better in home games.
Opponent’s Implied Run Total: 3.8, Wei-Yin Chen
Right behind Garcia in this category sits Chen, who draws the Phillies on the road tonight. While some may choose to go this direction, I think Chen’s matchup is less ideal than it may initially appear. His K Prediction of 5.8 is nothing to get excited about and he will also have to contend with home plate umpire Lazaro Diaz, who has limited pitchers to the tune of a -2.1 Plus/Minus on DK and -2.0 on FD.
Bargain Rating: 99 (DK), Martin Perez
On a slate in which paying way up for bats is an option, Martin Perez may come in handy. Know that there is almost no upside when Perez’s slate-low SO/9 is paired with the Angels’ slate low SO/AB. But he costs only $4,000 on DraftKings, gets a ton of groundballs, and may be able to limit the damage in a pitcher’s park tonight.
Duds (%): 21, Gio Gonzalez
On tonight’s slate, Gonzalez is second only to Pomeranz in his ability to limit duds. That’s good news because his salary is down by $1,100 on DraftKings over the last month, which just helps to lower the bar even further. Gonzalez has a reasonable K Prediction — currently set at 7.2 — and is a slight favorite to win.
BONUS
Everything Else: David Ortiz
Well, I came close to making it through a Data Dive without listing Big Papi, but here we are. Ortiz will square off against the hittable Matt Cain and leads batters in every single category that I didn’t mention above. He doesn’t really, but it’s close. And, yes, thank you, that is my homerism.
