FantasyLabs is a data company. With our free Trends tool and Player Models, you can leverage our advanced statistics and premium exclusive metrics to identify players to use in your daily fantasy sports lineups.
Each weekday, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players in the day’s Main slate.
Batters
We have nine games on tonight’s Main slate. Which batters stand out?
Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA): .454, Jose Altuve
Projected to bat third for the Astros tonight, Altuve leads all batters in the slate with a .454 wOBA versus left-handed pitchers. His .605 slugging percentage leads all second basemen, but he draws a tough assignment tonight against lefty Rich Hill. Hill has been decimating batters with a 70 percent recent ground-ball rate. However, Altuve’s seen a seven percent spike in his recent hard-hit percentage. He also has a 95 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, making him an interesting GPP option there.
Isolated Power (ISO): .368, Willson Contreras
Boasting a .368 ISO, Willson Contreras has incredible splits against fellow righties this year. Not only does he bring the highest ISO to the table, but he backs it up with a strong wOBA (.447) and slugging percentage (.658). Vegas looks to be on the Cubs’ side, as shown by their current -245 moneyline. Projected to bat cleanup for Chicago today, Contreras makes for an affordable play at catcher given his $2,800 salary on FanDuel.
Hard-Hit Percentage (%): 57, Wil Myers
Wil Myers’ 57 percent recent hard-hit rate has been reflected in his fantasy scoring, as the Padres’ first baseman has averaged 23.4 FD fantasy points per game over his last eight appearances. With a .393 wOBA and an exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, Myers has been on fire as of late. Batting second for San Diego, Myers also has five Pro Trends and a 99 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Exit Velocity Differential (MPH): +7, Danny Espinosa
Few batters have been as hot as Danny Espinosa this past week. His exit velocity has jumped seven miles per hour to a crazy 98 MPH. This has also raised his batted-ball distance by 35 feet and his hard-hit rate by 24 percent. Combine those with a 47 percent fly-ball rate and you have a recipe for batting success. With five home runs in his last six games, expect Espinosa to continue his hot streak against Bartolo Colon tonight.
Bargain Rating (%): 99 (FD), Trevor Story
Story has a home game tonight at Coors against the Phillies, and the Rockies are currently implied for 7.2 runs. Projected to bat fifth, Story has Vegas (99 percent Vegas Score), the weather (88 percent Weather Rating), and a great ballpark (100 Park Factor) all on his side. He also brings great recent stats to the plate with a 43 percent fly-ball rate, 43 percent hard-hit rate, and an average distance on batted balls of 249 feet.
Pitchers
Tonight’s slate offers tons of flexibility given the wide range of pricing. Let’s dive a little deeper and see what the data has to say.
K Prediction (SO): 8.5, Rich Hill
Rich Hill’s 8.5 K Prediction leads the position by a landslide for tonight. Aiding his high prediction is the fact that the Astros have the third-highest SO/AB rate in the slate. Hill’s recent stats show a batted-ball distance of just 181 feet, due largely to a strikingly-high 70 percent ground-ball rate. He has also limited hard hits lately, as shown by his impressive recent 15 percent hard-hit rate.
Home Runs per Nine Innings (HR/9) Allowed: 0.768, James Paxton
Hill also leads pitchers in HR/9 allowed tonight, but James Paxton is second with a 0.768 clip. Paxton’s 97.1 MPH average velocity blows away the competition, and he’s allowed just one home run over his past six outings. However, he’s been susceptible to opposing batters making contact, as shown by his shockingly-high 1.898 WHIP. That could spell trouble for Paxton against the Royals tonight and their collective .308 wOBA.
WHIP: 0.667, Lucas Harrell
With a tough matchup tonight against the Cubs, Lucas Harrell could be a very contrarian punt play at the pitcher position. After getting called up last Saturday, Harrell pitched 6.0 innings, allowing three hits and a walk while striking out five and ending with a win. The Braves’ starting rotation has been decimated by injuries, and Harrell’s low WHIP is more a testament to his limited time pitching in the Majors this season rather than his performance.
However, Harrell performed well in that first start, allowing a batted-ball distance of just 203 feet and an average exit velocity of only 90 MPH. Harrell’s $6,000 salary on FanDuel leaves plenty of room to pay up for bats, but the Braves will be large underdogs tonight.
Moneyline: -245, Jason Hammel
The largest favorite of the night is currently Chicago over Atlanta. The Cubs’ current implied total of 6.3 runs is quite a bit higher than the Braves’ implied total of 3.9. A -245 moneyline for Hammel suggests that he is the most likely pitcher to get the 12-point FanDuel win bonus. Unfortunately for Hammel, he’s been underperforming recently, averaging only 15.2 FD fantasy points per game over the past month. While Vegas likes the Cubs in this matchup by a large margin, it might be more optimal to fade Hammel and target the Cubs’ bats (like Contreras) instead.
Batted-Ball Distance Allowed (ft): 168, Trevor Bauer
Trevor Bauer’s 168-foot batted-ball distance allowed leads all pitchers for the night. His 66 percent ground-ball rate is a major factor in this: Opposing batters just aren’t able to get under Bauer’s pitches, as he has allowed just a 20 percent fly-ball rate. Playing exceptionally well as of late, Bauer enters this matchup with a current 5.6 K Prediction and a -149 moneyline, as well as a 45-point FD fantasy average in his last six outings.
Bonus
Pro Trends: 12 (FD), Nelson Cruz
With 12 FD Pro Trends in his favor, Cruz is in a great spot tonight. He bats cleanup while sporting a wOBA north of .400 and an ISO split above .300. He has increased his hard-hit differential by 18 percent, raising it to 55 percent recently. He’s subsequently raised his exit velocity by four miles per hour up to 96 miles per hour. And now he boasts a 99 percent FD Bargain Rating? Fade at your own risk.
Good luck tonight!
