FantasyLabs is a data company. With our free Trends tool and Player Models, you can leverage our advanced statistics and premium exclusive metrics to identify players to use in your daily fantasy sports lineups.
Each weekday, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players in the day’s Main slate.
Batters
We have eight games on tonight’s slate — not a lot, but enough. Which batters can we utilize to our advantage?
Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA): .488, Jayson Werth
Projected to bat second for Washington tonight, Werth leads all batters in the slate with a .488 wOBA versus left-handed pitchers. The Vegas-implied 5.4 run total for the Nationals leads all teams in what projects to be the biggest blowout of the night. Werth has seen an uptick in both his hard-hit rate (+9 percent) and exit velocity (+3 miles per hour) over the last 15 days. Brandon Finnegan’s unimpressive 1.375 WHIP and 1.358 HR/9 are certainly exploitable. Sporting 11 Pro Trends, Werth should be a highly-owned play tonight in some Washington stacks.
Isolated Power (ISO): .376, Ryan Zimmerman
Boasting a .376 ISO, Zimmerman has been crushing lefties this season. Not only does he bring the highest ISO to the table, but he backs it up with a strong wOBA (.433) and slugging percentage (.677). Sporting a recent hard-hit rate of 46-percent, Zimmerman makes for another great right-handed bat to use against Finnegan tonight.
Recent Batted-Ball Distance (Ft): 259, Matt Carpenter
Carpenter’s 259-foot batted-ball distance over the past 15 days leads all hitters on tonight’s slate. It doesn’t hurt that he has gone yard five times in his past 15 games. He could quite easily make that six after tonight. Kansas City’s Chris Young has the highest HR/9 on the slate at 2.624. Young was lit up during his last outing, allowing seven earned runs in just 2.1 innings. Batting leadoff for the Cardinals, Carpenter combines a 96 MPH exit velocity with a 42 percent fly-ball rate to make him viable in cash and tournaments alike.
Exit Velocity Differential (MPH): +7, Steven Moya
After skipping a few days this week due to knee soreness, Moya will be a welcome addition to the Tigers lineup, given how well he’s seeing the ball lately. Moya’s recent stats have been sublime, with great advanced Differentials in exit velocity (+7 MPH), hard-hit rate (+15 percent), and batted-ball distance (+35 ft). The lefty is slugging .528, giving him tremendous Upside on the slate. Moya and the Tigers have a quality matchup tonight against Jake Odorizzi, whose HR/9 (1.412) and Consistency (43 percent) are exploitable.
Hard-Hit Differential (%): +18, Anthony Rizzo
Rizzo leads all hitters on the slate in hard-hit differential (+18 percent). On top of that, he owns the highest recent batted-ball distance (253 ft) and exit velocity (94 MPH) at his position. Steven Matz doesn’t allow many homeruns (.705 HR/9), due largely to a heavy ground-ball rate of 59 percent, second-highest among pitchers tonight. However, with positive ISO splits against lefties (.211) and a position-leading nine Pro Trends, Rizzo could be a lesser-owned tournament option at first base.
Bargain Rating (%): 98 (FD), Marcel Ozuna
Sporting a 98 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel tonight, Ozuna paves the way among batters. Priced at only $3,700, Ozuna benefits from playing against right-handed pitcher Michael Foltynewicz, who has the worst WHIP of the slate, something Ozuna should profit from with his .319 batting average and 24 walks on the season. Ozuna doesn’t have the best differentials against fellow righties, but his .460 SLG and -$700 Salary Change should put him in consideration for lineups tonight.
Pitchers
Tonight’s slate offers some interesting value plays. Let’s dive a little deeper into the data.
K Prediction (SO): 8.2, Carlos Carrasco
Carlos Carrasco’s 8.2 K Prediction blows away the rest of the pitchers for tonight. Aiding his high prediction is the fact that the Blue Jays have the fourth-highest SO/AB rate tonight. Carrasco’s 94.1 MPH average velocity leads all pitchers, with opposing batters struggling to stay in front of his fastball. Over the last year, he has impressively mixed a 25 percent fly-ball rate (lowest in the slate) with a 54 percent ground ball rate (highest in the slate). Carrasco’s -120 moneyline and high propensity for strikeouts make Carrasco an ideal play for cash and tournaments alike.
Home Runs per Nine Innings (HR/9): 0.705, Steven Matz
I tend to weight HR/9 heavily in my own personal model, but even Matz’ 0.705 HR/9 mark made me do a double-take. Matz has seen his salary fluctuate like crazy this season, and after giving up six earned runs in his last outing he has seen it drop $900 since the start of this month. Over the past 15 days, only Mike Leake has a higher ground-ball rate than Matz’ 59 percent among tonight’s pitchers. With a hefty 93.7 MPH average velocity and only 202 feet allowed on batted balls, Matz makes for an intriguing target for tournaments, especially given his 7.1 K Prediction.
WHIP: 1.011, Madison Bumgarner
The ace of the slate, Bumgarner has an interesting matchup in Oakland. The Athletics are projected by Vegas to only score 3.2 runs. Bumgarner’s 1.011 WHIP and 7.1 K Prediction will likely have the A’s off the bases for most of the night. A -143 moneyline favorite, San Francisco has a decent shot at capturing the 12-point FanDuel victory bonus for Bumgarner, given his pristine 1.99 ERA.
Moneyline: -199, Gio Gonzalez
The largest favorite of the night is Washington over Cincinnati. The Nationals’ implied opening total of five runs has climbed to 5.4 (at the time of this writing). A -199 moneyline spells an easy path to the 12-point FanDuel bonus for Gonzalez. He hasn’t been very consistent lately, but helping his case are a 7.2 K Prediction and a lowly .717 HR/9 rate.
Good luck tonight!
