FantasyLabs is a data company. With our free Trends tool and Player Models, you can leverage our advanced statistics and premium exclusive metrics to identify players to use in your daily fantasy sports lineups.
Each weekday, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players in the day’s Main slate.
Batters
We have a smaller Main slate tonight with only five games. Which batters can we utilize to our advantage?
Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA): .459, Marcell Ozuna
Projected to bat third for Miami tonight, Marcell Ozuna leads all batters in tonight’s slate with a .459 wOBA versus left-handed pitchers. Squaring up against tonight’s highest-priced pitcher in lefty Jon Lester, Ozuna could make for a sneaky tournament play. Ozuna brings a .670 slugging percentage against lefties, as well as an increased hard-hit percentage over the past 15 days (+12 percent). The Marlins have a Vegas-implied 3.3 run total, which, combined with how well Lester’s been throwing lately, likely means that Ozuna will be available for very low ownership.
Isolated Power (ISO): .328, Carlos Gonzalez
Boasting a .328 Isolated Power mark, Carlos Gonzalez has been crushing it against righties this season. Not only does he bring the highest ISO to the table, but he backs it up with an equally-strong wOBA (.433) and slugging percentage (.653). Playing at home at Coors Field tonight, Gonzalez has a matchup with Arizona’s Zack Greinke. Greinke has been dealing lately (only three earned runs in his last four games), making this one of the most interesting matchups to keep an eye on tonight.
Park Factor: 100, Coors Field
Righties and lefties alike will be benefiting from the highest Park Factor Rating on the slate. Given the high Vegas-implied run totals for the Diamondbacks (5.8 runs) and Rockies (4.7), this game is sure to provide some good hitting performances. With Eddie Butler taking the mound for Colorado, don’t be surprised to see a ton of Arizona stacks tonight.
Exit Velocity (MPH): +6, Billy Hamilton
Despite the brief appearance on the DL, Billy Hamilton has turned things up a notch as we start getting into the dog days of summer. Hamilton’s seen an uptick in both his Exit Velocity (+6.0 MPH) and Hard-Hit Differential (+15 percent) according to our recent advanced stats. Unfortunately for Hamilton, he’s been unable to turn that into fantasy production due to a strikingly-low 17 percent fly-ball rate over that time period.
However, he has a matchup against San Diego’s Christian Friedrich tonight. Friedrich owns the slate’s highest WHIP at 1.997 and was recently just torched by the Nationals. Friedrich is a groundball pitcher, but that perhaps fits Hamilton’s game given his lack of power. As usual, Hamilton’s .367 stolen bases per game leads the slate tonight by a wide margin, making him an interesting tournament option.
Hard-Hit Differential (%): +23, Asdrubal Cabrera
Projected to bat second for the Mets, Asdrubal Cabrera’s recent stats have been very impressive lately. Cabrera owns the slate’s highest Hard-Hit Differential at 23 percent. Combine that with a recent fly-ball percentage of 42 percent — a trend that we’ve seen net positive results — and Cabrera makes for a fine cash and tournament option for tonight.
Bargain Rating (%): 99 (FD), Michael Bourn
Sporting a 99 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel tonight, Michael Bourn could provide needed salary relief to get in other Coors batters. Priced at only $2,400 on FD, Bourn benefits from our previously-mentioned Park Factor at Coors and also brings a whopping 10 Pro Trends to the table. We’ve seen Bourn struggle lately, but he enters an ideal situation with location, weather, and Vegas all on his side. He has an uptick in both his Exit Velocity (+4.0 MPH) and Batted-Ball Distance (+37 feet) recently as well.
Pitchers
A five-game slate leaves few options at pitcher tonight, so let’s dive a little deeper into the data.
K Prediction (SO): 7.0, Jon Lester
The slate’s ace of the night, Jon Lester has many things going in his favor, the most important being his slate-high 7.0 K Prediction. Pitchers around that mark have historically done very well, adding +4.09 to their expected point total on FanDuel. Unfortunately for Lester, the Marlins don’t strike out very often. Miami’s .225 strikeouts per at-bat rate is the second-lowest on the night. However, Lester has shown great consistency in this area: He’s thrown for at least seven strikeouts in five straight games.
WHIP: 0.939, Zack Greinke
Greinke’s .939 WHIP leads all pitchers tonight, but he is unfortunately pitching at Coors Field. Despite the bad location, Greinke will be entering this matchup red-hot, averaging 52 points on FanDuel during his last four games. He’s had great command lately, throwing 55 percent of his pitches for strikes. Greinke’s 54 percent fly-ball rate makes him a bit of a riskier play given the location of the matchup, but if you’re looking for a high-risk, high-reward pitcher, Greinke could be your man.
Moneyline: -164, Matt Harvey
Technically, Lester owns this by the smallest of margins (-170), but Vegas is heavily leaning in the Mets’ favor tonight. Harvey’s roller coaster 2016 campaign has been nauseating at times, but he is in a great spot tonight against Atlanta. The Braves’ .291 projected wOBA is the third-lowest among all teams tonight and they have the second-lowest implied run total (3.3) on the slate.
Strike Percentage (%): 56, Wei-Yin Chen
Wei-Yin Chen’s 56 percent strike percentage paves the way for pitchers tonight. The Cubs are a middle-of-the-road strikeout team, so Chen may need to get a little creative in this matchup. Chen’s been getting lit up lately and might benefit from forcing batters to chase balls outside of the box. Averaging five earned runs allowed over his past three games, Chen should strictly be a tournament play given his low floor.
Bonus
One more MLB data dive for fun.
Pro Trends: 12 (FD), Trevor Story
No surprise, a Colorado hitter leads all batters in Pro Trends tonight. Story’s FanDuel salary has dropped $900 in the last month, providing him with a high Bargain Rating (93 percent) there, in addition to all the other peripherals (Park Factor, weather, and Vegas) on his side. He’s also been tearing it up recently with a high Hard-Hit Percentage (60 percent), increased Exit Velocity (96 MPH), and impressive Batted-Ball Distance (254 feet). Combine that with an ISO north of .300 and a fly-ball percentage of 42 percent, and Story makes for a terrific play in both cash and tournaments alike.
Good luck tonight!
