FantasyLabs is a data company. With our free Trends tool and Player Models, you can leverage our advanced statistics and premium exclusive metrics to identify players to use in your daily fantasy sports lineups.
Each weekday, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players in the day’s Main slate.
Batters
We have a smaller Main slate tonight with only seven games. Runs should be abundant: Even the highest-priced pitcher tonight, Justin Verlander, is projected to allow 4.0 runs. On that note, let’s talk about some bats.
Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA): .515 Tommy Joseph
The Phillies have been playing Tommy Joseph almost exclusively against lefties given Ryan Howard’s struggles. Taking on former Phillie J.A. Happ, Joseph leads the slate in wOBA with a ridiculous .515 versus lefties. Happ’s 1.232 WHIP and mediocre strikeout rate (7.455 SO/9) shouldn’t keep Joseph out of your lineups given Joseph’s success so far against southpaw pitchers.
Isolated Power (ISO): .371, David Ortiz
David Ortiz leads all batters in Isolated Power tonight in a matchup at Fenway. Combine that with a .690 slugging percentage against righties and it is safe to say he dominates opposing righty pitchers. Ortiz also boasts nine Pro Trends tonight on DraftKings; he is a great play in all formats.
Park Factor: 61, Righties at Fenway Park
Tonight’s highest Park Factor Rating belongs to right-handed batters playing at Fenway. A matchup between the Red Sox and Orioles is sure to have some fireworks. This game is projected to have the highest combined score on the slate; location is likely playing a major factor in that. Given the two pitching options tonight (Tyler Wilson and Eduardo Rodriguez), targeting a Red Sox or Orioles stack could prove fruitful.
Distance Differential (Ft.): +39, Salvador Perez
Hitting the ball particularly well in the early days of June, Salvador Perez leads all batters in Distance Differential. Perez has been on fire, seeing an increased Exit Velocity (+5.0 MPH) and Hard-Hit Percentage (+23 percent). Add in a recent fly-ball percentage of 46 percent and Perez becomes the type of hard-hitting, home run-potential play to covet at the catcher position. On a current seven-game hitting streak, Perez offers great value for tonight’s slate.
Hard-Hit Differential (%): +13, Chris Davis
Chris Davis has been hitting the ball harder recently than his already-hard season-long rate of 41 percent. However, he is facing a lefty today, which means he has negative wOBA and ISO splits. What matters more — a negative matchup or positive recent advanced stats? Find out here.
Bargain Rating (%): 99, Xander Bogaerts
Tonight has a large number of batters with a 99 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, but Xander Bogaerts is worth highlighting due to his recent success. He also benefits from the high Park Factor Rating for righties at Fenway, as mentioned above.
Pitchers
A seven-game slate leaves few options at pitcher tonight, so let’s dive a little deeper into the data to see what it suggests for potential plays.
K Prediction (SO): 7.3, Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola leads all pitchers tonight with a K Prediction of 7.3. He’ll be facing a middle-of-the-road matchup against the Blue Jays and their .253 SO/AB rate. Coming off a rough outing against the Nationals, look for Nola to rebound against the Blue Jays and get back to form.
Moneyline (ML): -165, Scott Kazmir
Scott Kazmir and the Dodgers are the heaviest favorites so far on tonight’s slate. The Brewers are projected for a slate-low 3.3 runs tonight and that number has already decreased today. The Dodgers’ projection, however, continues to move the other way, giving more reason to target Kazmir for a win.
Kazmir’s solid SO/9 (8.1), combined with Milwaukee’s .287 SO/AB rate, makes him a solid play to get the coveted 12-point win on FanDuel and rack up some strikeouts in the process.
Pitch Velocity Differential (MPH): +0.9, Justin Verlander
In a matchup of hard-throwing pitchers, Justin Verlander and Danny Duffy will be bringing the heat in this game. Both of these pitchers lead their position in recent average velocity. Throwing 93.6 MPH on average lately, Verlander has seen a nice 0.9 MPH boost over his season average.
He’s also been on one hell of a tear lately, averaging 48.6 fantasy points on FanDuel during his last seven games. Minor boosts in pitching velocity should be taken with a grain of salt, but Verlander’s been on fire recently to warrant the extra attention in tonight’s matchup.
Bargain Rating (%): 98, CC Sabathia
CC Sabathia’s 98 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel makes for an interesting salary-saving play. Sabathia has seen a +$500 Salary Change, yet remains one of the cheaper options tonight. His advanced differentials are all trending in the wrong direction, but perhaps a game against the Twins is exactly what he needs to turn it around. Despite the poor recent stats, Sabathia has one of the highest Consistency scores on the year.
