FantasyLabs is a data company. With our free Trends tool and Player Models, you can leverage our advanced statistics and premium exclusive metrics to identify players to use in your daily fantasy sports lineups.
Each weekday, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players in the day’s main slate.
Batters
Today, we have an 11-game slate featuring the Rockies on the road. To quote Goldilocks, this porridge is just right.
Park Factor: 78, Left-Handed Batters, Oriole Park at Camden Yards
It’s almost too much to believe. The Rockies are away from Coors Field — and their lefties still have the slate’s highest Park Factor. Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, and Daniel Descalso are all in play on DraftKings and FanDuel. Chris Davis is the only lefty to speak of expected to start for the Orioles. He’s (relatively) disadvantaged in that he’s going against a lefty in Rockies starter Jorge De La Rosa. Of course, De La Rosa is partially why the Orioles currently have an implied Vegas total of 5.7 runs in the first place. As it happens, Davis has historically done well in similar situations.
Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA): .481, Brett Eibner
Currently projected to bat eighth for the Royals, Eibner is the man you want if you’re looking for a cheap outfielder with a slate-high wOBA. He’s especially tempting on FanDuel, where he’s $2,000 with a 95 percent Bargain Rating. For a cheap player, Eibner has exhibited a remarkable mix of Consistency (40 percent) and Upside (20 percent) over the last year. Of course, Eibner has been horrible over his last four games, with negative batted-ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit differentials. Still, minimum-priced high-Bargain Rating batters with comparable wOBAs tend to do well.
Isolated Power (ISO): .397, David Ortiz
He has the slate’s highest ISO and slugging percentage and its second-highest wOBA. He’s batting fourth for a lineup implied to score 5.3 runs. Each game of his retirement campaign is merely proof that he shouldn’t retire. The only negative with Papi is that the Tigers-Red Sox game currently has a 54 percent chance of precipitation. (Be sure to follow the weather on our Lineups page as we get closer to game time.)
Batted-Ball Distance Differential (Ft): +46, Rougned Odor
Of all the players currently expected to start, Odor has the best batted-ball differential, currently hitting the ball 46 feet further than he has over the past year. Unsurprisingly, the rest of his advanced differentials are positive as well. He leads the slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Pro Trends, and he’s batting fifth for a Rangers team implied to score 5.6 runs. When you add all of that together, the result tends to be good.
Month Salary Change ($): -1,700 (DK), Adam Duvall
Duvall doesn’t lead the slate in Salary Change, but he’s someone who shouldn’t be nearly as discounted as he is. Yes, he’s in a slump from hell, underperforming his salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games with an average Plus/Minus of -2.18 — but over the last fantasy month he still has a +0.17 Plus/Minus and his 15-day batted-ball exit velocity is actually one mile per hour faster than his yearly average. He’s playing in San Francisco and so he has a Park Factor of literally zero, but he’s on the advantageous side of his reverse splits. He’s definitely not someone you must roster, but he probably deserves more consideration than he’s getting.
Bargain Rating (%): 99 (FD), Athletics
On DraftKings, only Buster Posey has a 99 percent Bargain Rating. On FanDuel, f*cking everybody has that rating. In particular, the Athletics have three batters checking in with 99s: Marcus Semien, Danny Valencia, and Jake Smolinski, all of whom are expected to start. And Billy Butler has a 97 and Khris Davis a 95. Any combination of these guys could make an intriguing tournament stack. Right now the Athletics are implied to score ‘only’ 4.8 runs on the road against the Rangers. That total isn’t bad, but it looks flimsy next to the Rangers’ 5.6. Still, batters with high Bargain Ratings do well in high-temperature Arlington games, and the Athletics have a number of those guys.
Pitchers
Clayton Kershaw isn’t in this slate, so it could have better pitchers.
K Prediction (SO): 7.6, Noah Syndergaard
Actually . . . the slate could have better pitchers. A number of guys pitching today are very good, but Thor leads the slate with a 7.6 K Prediction, and that’s just bush league business for a high mark. Facing the Cardinals, who have the slate’s lowest implied run total, Thor currently has a -167 moneyline and a top-three salary on both platforms. Far be it for me to speak against the son of Odin, but if I were to pay up for a pitcher then I’d want that guy to have greater odds of winning and striking out more batters — especially when his game has a 54 percent chance of precipitation.
Moneyline (ML): -260, Aaron Sanchez
You don’t need to tell me what a guy’s name is, what his advanced stats are, what month it is, who he’s pitching against, where he’s pitching, what his K Prediction is, or how many runs the opposing team is implied to score. All you need to do is tell me that he is $9,600 on FanDuel, has a 90 percent Bargain Rating, and currently sports a slate-best -260 moneyline. Comparable pitchers historically dominate.
Pitch Velocity Differential (MPH): +1.6, Justin Verlander
Verlander is a +118 moneyline underdog and he’s on the road facing a Boston lineup that crushes the ball. It doesn’t help that the Tigers-Red Sox game currently has a 54 percent chance of precipitation. At the same time, Verlander enters this contest throwing the ball very well. He leads the slate in pitch velocity differential, and he’s trending in the right direction on his batted-ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit differentials. His slate-best 11 percent recent hard-hit rate is the stuff that dreams are made of. He’s only $8,800 on FanDuel and his 75 percent Bargain Rating suggests that he’s available at a value. He’s dangerous for cash games — and potentially dangerous for guaranteed prize pools, if you get my meaning.
Bargain Rating (%): 98 (DK), Jorge De La Rosa and Yovani Gallardo
Both of these guys are well under $5,000 and have elite Bargain Ratings. That combination makes them very palatable in tournaments. Of course, they’re pitching against each other and their game has a 65 percent chance of precipitation. Of the two, Gallardo is particularly notable because of his current -161 moneyline. Comparable pitchers have historically done well — much better than you’d expect cheap DraftKings pitchers to do.
Good luck!
