FantasyLabs is a data company. With our free Trends tool and Player Models, you can leverage our advanced statistics and premium exclusive metrics to identify players to use in your daily fantasy sports lineups.
Each weekday, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players in the day’s Main slate.
Batters
There are plenty of batters in great spots today, but here’s the question: Can you afford them? With Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, and Madison Bumgarner all scheduled to take the hill tonight, you may want to consider placing a heavier than normal emphasis on Bargain Rating when selecting batters.
Isolated Power Difference (ISO Diff): .307, Corey Dickerson
While David Ortiz is the overall leader in ISO among today’s batters, Dickerson is the player who gains the largest boost when comparing his ISO vs. handedness to overall ISO. Against right-handed pitchers, Dickerson’s ISO is .307 over the past calendar year, an increase of .255 points over his ISO against lefties.
It doesn’t stop there for Dickerson. If you’ve been following my MLB Trend Testing series this season, you know that most of my custom trends look for increased home run potential. As it happens, Dickerson qualifies for two of these custom trends:
• Fishing for HRs
• Weather Rating & Park Factor
Park Factor: 65, Lefties at Globe Life Park
Lefties at Globe Life Park in Arlington get the biggest bump in Park Factor this evening, but pump the brakes before you start shotgunning Rangers and Orioles stacks. You’ll want to attack Derek Holland with righties, as his career Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) allowed is over 40 points higher to righty bats than to lefties. That’s bad news for Chris Davis and his fellow Baltimore lefties.
And Kevin Gausman, though a righty, has allowed a reverse wOBA split that is almost as large as Holland’s over his career. Still, the Rangers were clearly designed to excel in their home ballpark, as you will find solid lefty bats throughout their lineup. Note the following trend, which shows that the Rangers’ lefty bats have collectively averaged nearly one fantasy point more per game (DK scoring) when playing at home this season:
Average Distance (Ft): 258, Rougned Odor
If you’re looking to go with individual batters rather than a full stack from the Orioles-Rangers game, maybe Odor is your guy. His average batted-ball distance over the past 15 days is 258 feet, tops among batters who have played in at least 10 games over that period. Proving that number is no fluke, his exit velocity of 97 miles per hour over that same timeframe ranks behind only Justin Turner’s.
Hard-Hit Batted Ball Percentage (HH%): 48, David Ortiz
It’s really hard to write a Data Dive article without including Ortiz, who seems to place near the top in almost every single category. Today, I’m looking at his 12-month HH% of 48 percent, which is tops among regular starters. Playing at home, Ortiz will have an excellent shot of hitting a home run today against the righty Miguel Gonzalez, whose career Fly-Ball Percentage (FB%) sits just a shade under 40 percent. Of course, the big question is this: Can you afford Ortiz while still paying up for Kershaw?
Bargain Rating (%): 99 (FD), Xander Bogaerts
The aforementioned Gonzalez has been a pretty splits-neutral pitcher over his career. And although Bogaerts has historically fared better against lefty pitching, he has still hit 20-of-29 career homers against righties. So even with the righty-righty matchup, Bogaerts is likely underpriced today, especially on FanDuel, where he has a 99-percent Bargain Rating. Also, Bogaerts matches another trend from my Trend Testing collection, which screens for players who score highly in both Bargain Rating and Vegas Score.
Pitchers
It’s a fairly light nine-game slate this evening, but the fridge is fully stocked at pitcher. Is there a reason to look outside the Big Three? Let’s examine which pitchers rate highly across our metrics.
Plus/Minus, Salary Change, Consistency, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings page.
Moneyline (ML): -198, Steven Wright
It’s the rare Kershaw-slate where Clayton isn’t listed as the largest favorite on the board. Instead, that honor currently belongs to Wright, whose Boston Red Sox are nearly two-run favorites against the visiting White Sox. Further, 87 percent of moneyline bets are coming in on Wright’s side.
Opponent’s Projected Runs (Opp Run): 2.4, Clayton Kershaw
Even though he’s not the slate’s biggest favorite, Kershaw is still beloved by Vegas, as the Nationals are implied to score a slate-low 2.4 runs against Kershaw tonight. Additionally, the Nationals rank fourth in team-wOBA and second in team-ISO against left-handed pitching in 2016.
Park Factor: 94, Madison Bumgarner
You have to feel bad for Bumgarner tonight, who loses six points in Park Factor by leaving AT&T Park and its 100 Park Factor in order to start tonight’s game at PNC Park, where the Park Factor is only 94 for lefties. Poor guy.
K Prediction (SO): 9.2, Stephen Strasburg
I’d have to think that those looking to fade Kershaw tonight will look to Bumgarner first, due to his higher likelihood of picking up a win and friendly Park Factor. Strasburg, though, is currently projected to rack up 9.2 strikeouts, only 0.1 behind Kershaw. So if we think that Strasburg and Kershaw will strike out roughly the same number of batters tonight, what are the chances Strasburg will be able to steal the win from Kershaw? That is the big question for guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests this evening.
Bargain Rating (%): 98 (FD), John Lackey
Oh, hey, John, didn’t see you there. Lackey is nearly a lock to go overlooked tonight considering the alternatives, but his price on FanDuel is at its lowest point in nearly a month ($9,600). Of course, that is somewhat justified, since the Cardinals have been one of the best teams against righties this season. They have, though, cooled down a bit over the past two weeks and Lackey’s 3.35 SIERA in 2016 remains the best mark of his 14-year career. Put it all together and Lackey is if nothing else an interesting wildcard on tonight’s slate.
Bonus
Pro Trends: 10 (DK), Jason Kipnis
Few will go here because of a tough lefty-lefty matchup against Drew Smyly, but anytime a player matches this many Pro Trends, it’s something at least to consider in GPPs. Kipnis matches all types of Pro Trends, from weather-related to Vegas-related to recent salary-related to recent advanced stats. How heavily do you weigh the negative split against a handful of positive trends? That’s the question that needs to be answered for Jason Kipnis tonight.
