FantasyLabs is a data company. With our free Trends tool and Player Models, you can leverage our advanced statistics and premium exclusive metrics to identify players to use in your daily fantasy sports lineups.
Each weekday, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players in the day’s Main slate.
Batters
The Rockies are in the middle of a six-game home stand, but they have today off. You’re about to remember what a 10-game Main slate looks like when it doesn’t have a team with an implied Vegas total of at least seven runs.
Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA): .438, Bryce Harper
Harper’s clearly a great player, and he has the slate’s highest wOBA — but don’t let that fool you. He’s in a bad spot tonight. The Nationals are projected to score only 3.7 runs, and Harper has a Park Factor of 39. On top of that, in the last 15 days his batted-ball Distance, Exit Velocity, and Hard-Hit Differentials have all been negative. Over the last fantasy month, he is averaging only seven DraftKings points per game and has submitted a categorical Dud performance as many times as he has met his salary-based expectations: 36 percent. That’s not good.
Isolated Power (ISO): .361, Todd Frazier
The cleanup hitter on a team with an implied run total of 4.8 runs, Frazier is basically a must-start option on FanDuel, where he has a delicious 98 percent Bargain Rating. With the slate’s highest ISO and seventh-highest ISO Differential, Frazier is just one of several White Sox who should exploit a young lefty pitcher with a 6.41 career ERA and a great first name. And there’s also this . . .
Park Factor: 65, Right-Handed Batters, U.S. Cellular Field
The righties in the Tigers-White Sox game have been blessed with the best Park Factor in the slate. Both teams are currently implied to score well over 4.5 runs and make for intriguing stacking options. Facing the recently horrid James Shields, the Tigers in particular could have a big performance, with righties Ian Kinsler, Cameron Maybin, and Miguel Cabrera projected to bat at the top of the order. This year, batters in the top third of the lineup have benefited from a comparable Park Factor to the tune of +1.02 Plus/Minus at DraftKings.
Distance Differential (Ft.): +81, Tyler Naquin
Of all batters in the slate to play at least five games in the last 15 days, Cleveland’s projected No. 9 batter has been crushing the ball (and his yearly batted-ball average) the most. With all of his differentials trending upward, Naquin has the potential to be a productive and under-rostered player in tonight’s tournaments. It’s not every day that you find an outfielder with 11 and eight Pro Trends on DraftKings and FanDuel available for only $3,100 and $2,800, respectively.
Hard-Hit Differential (%): +28, Salvador Perez
Of the batters who have played at least five games in the last 15 days and are projected to play tonight, Perez has increased his percentage of hard hits the most. He especially makes for an intriguing play on DraftKings, where his $3,000 salary should allow DFSers to save some money to use toward a pitcher, and his position-best 11 Pro Trends should prevent their frugality from destroying their lineups. Historically, comparable players have done very well.
Bargain Rating (%): 99 (FD), Danny Valencia
Across DraftKings and FanDuel, three batters have a 99 percent Bargain Rating. Of the group, Valencia is the most notable. Projected to bat third for Oakland, he has a respectable six Pro Trends. Historically, batters in comparable situations have a +1.80 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Pitchers
In terms of pitching, this slate isn’t exactly “Max Scherzer and then everyone else” — but it sort of is.
K Prediction (SO): 9.6, Max Scherzer
The Nationals stud leads the slate in K Prediction by a wide margin, with Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco finishing second with a 7.5-strikeout projection. Easily the slate’s highest-rated pitcher in both the Bales and CSURAM88 Models — and that’s for both DraftKings and FanDuel — Mad Max is tonight’s elite pitcher. Of course, if you want him, you’ll need to pay all the way up: He’s the most expensive player on both sites.
Moneyline (ML): -184, R.A. Dickey
Dickey’s slate-high ML gives him an excellent chance of securing the 12-point victory bonus available on FanDuel. Even with his embarrassingly-low K Prediction of 4.9 strikeouts, Dickey could easily return value on the platform, as pitchers with similar MLs historically have a +3.36 Plus/Minus. He does have a slate-low Park Factor of 37, but his six Pro Trends on FanDuel — the second-highest total at the position — should compensate for his suboptimal pitching environment.
Pitch Velocity Differential (MPH): +0.6, Colin Rea
Daniel Wright and Mike Bolsinger tied Rea with Pitch Velocity Differentials of +0.6 MPH, but of the group Rea is the only one whose other advanced differentials aren’t all getting worse. In fact, as his pitch velocity has increased, his batted-ball distance and exit velocity allowed have both decreased. A cheap pitcher with a K Prediction of only 4.6 strikeouts, Rea might not look like much, but he has a 55 percent ground-ball rate and thus isn’t likely to give up multiple big hits to a team implied to score fewer than four runs. He could be a sneaky No. 2 pitcher on DraftKings in tournaments.
Bargain Rating (%): 96 (DK), James Shields
The most relatively discounted pitcher on the slate, Shields still might be too expensive. Even with his depressing -$3,400 Salary Change on DraftKings over the last month, Shields has a -4.36 Plus/Minus. Shields is throwing the ball marginally harder as of late, but his Distance, Exit Velocity, and Hard-Hit Differentials are all trending in the wrong direction. In tournaments, Shields might have some ownership arbitrage potential, but ultimately he could be a magnificent value trap.
Bonus
You’re so good-looking that you deserve a little something extra.
Pro Trends: 12 (DK), Freddie Freeman
Freeman leads DraftKings with 12 Pro Trends and is second on FanDuel with 11. Batters with 10 to 14 Pro Trends on DraftKings historically have a +1.56 Plus/Minus. Perhaps most amazing is that such batters tend to have positive Plus/Minus values as long as they don’t bat ninth. It only helps that Freeman is expected to bat third.
