Batters
Isolated Power (ISO) Differential: .252, Wilmer Flores
In his last 10 at-bats against left-handed pitchers, Flores has hit five home runs. The Mets will face left-handed pitcher Adam Conley, who has only allowed one home run to a left-handed batter in his career (30 starts). While Conley has kept left-handed hitters at bay, they have recorded a batting average 0.061 points higher than right-handed hitters. Flores’ salary on DraftKings will rest above $3,900 for the 12th time in his career, a floor that has resulted in a +3.47 Plus/Minus. His $3,200 salary on FanDuel will likely take a backseat to Ryan Schimpf’s $2,200 mark, but Flores and his .455 wOBA – second only to David Ortiz – offer immense value on a team currently implied to score 3.8 runs.
Hard-Hit Differential (%): 27, Scooter Gennett
Over his last eight games, Gennett’s overall hard-hit rate (55 percent) ranks second to Daniel Murphy among second basemen. However, Gennett has hit a rough patch in July, crafting a 21.4 percent Consistency on FanDuel in 14 starts. Even though Gennett has been crushing the ball – a 94-MPH exit velocity in the last 15 days – you need only to peruse the image below to verify a mostly-negative launch angle, courtesy of Baseball Savant.
Monthly Consistency (%): 72.7 (DK), Mike Trout
Trout has exceeded salary-based expectations in 16 of his last 22 games, an impressive feat for one of the most consistently-expensive hitters. His monthly +4.18 Plus/Minus is second to Tyler Naquin (+5.18). The difference is, though, Naquin’s average salary was roughly $3,700 and Trout’s average salary approached $5,200. He’s recorded at least one DraftKings point in 24 straight starts, and his six stolen bases this month is his most since April of 2015.
Now the bad news: The Angels’ 3.7 implied runs is their fewest since June 22nd. Regardless of his consistency, Trout turns into a tournament option because high-priced hitters don’t typically perform well against Vegas; however, Trout is one of the few who bucks the trend.
Batted-Ball Distance (feet): 284, Brandon Belt
Belt either strikes out or hits fly balls. His 99-MPH exit velocity over the past 15 days leads all hitters projected to start tonight, and the recent uptick is a vast improvement over his season average. What more could you want from a left-handed hitter in Yankee Stadium facing a pitcher with a mediocre 7.418 SO/9?
Despite almost all of his home runs exiting the right-field stands, Belt has hit a majority of his fly balls to the opposite field, where the wind is currently projected to blow out at nine miles per hour. The one hiccup in this diabolical plan is Masahiro Tanaka’s newfound penchant for inducing ground balls. As research indicates, Belt crushes balls in the lower third of the strike zone, Tanaka’s most visited sector with his sinker. The Giants are currently implied to score 3.6 runs, and Belt’s 96 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings, combined with his 14 Pro Trends, offers a smidgen of tournament hope.
Bargain Rating (%): 99 (FD), Carlos Gonzalez
Since 2012, Gonzalez has been listed as $3,500 or less on FanDuel only 17 times when playing at Coors Field. The price reduction ties his lowest salary at home this season. He ranks second among outfielders in ISO (0.310) and slugging percentage (0.640). There are 11 other hitters on FanDuel with the same Bargain Rating, but none of them match Gonzalez’s .433 wOBA, 100 Park Factor, eight Pro Trends, or 5.9 implied runs.
Although Marty Foster has historically supplied a +1.30 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and +0.70 Plus/Minus on FanDuel for pitchers, hitters have salvaged a +1.73 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and +2.45 Plus/Minus with Foster behind the plate at Coors Field.
Pitchers
K Prediction (SO): 8.1, Madison Bumgarner
Despite being implied to score 3.8 runs, the Yankees own a slate-high 85 Team Value Rating on DraftKings. Their current projected lineup possesses a slate-low .202 SO/AB. Should Brian McCann sneak himself into the actual lineup, expect the 8.1 prediction to improve accordingly. Additionally, plan for a drizzle at Yankee Stadium, if not a rain delay before first pitch.
Bumgarner is the most expensive pitcher on the slate, but his $13,000 salary on DraftKings has always been met with at least a -149 moneyline. Overnight, the Giants transformed from minor favorite to a current dog at +102. Four-fifths of the moneyline bets have come in on the Giants, yet they’ve experienced a -0.3 fluctuation in implied runs. Under similar conditions, pitchers have historically yielded a -4.56 Plus/Minus on FanDuel and a -0.99 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Moneyline: -222, Tanner Roark
The Nationals are currently implied to score 5.2 runs, a solid 1.8 runs more than the Padres. Under similar conditions, pitchers have recorded a +7.87 Plus/Minus on FanDuel with 68.8 percent Consistency and +7.29 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 72 percent Consistency.
Roark claims the highest percentage of strikes thrown (62 percent) over the past 15 days among Friday’s pitchers, and his 95 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel aligns well with the 12-point win bonus. Every hitter in the Nationals’ projected starting lineup has at least five Pro Trends on DraftKings and FanDuel, matched only by the Indians and Rockies on Friday’s slate. The only obstacle remains inclement weather shortening Roark’s tenure on the mound, which has lasted at least six innings in his last seven starts.
HR/9: 0.413, Gerrit Cole
Cole has failed to meet salary-based expectations in his last six starts, but he’s the highest-rated pitcher on DraftKings in both the Bales and CSURAM88 models. As of 1pm ET, he, along with Roark, has a slate-high -222 moneyline.
The Phillies are currently implied to score a slate-low 3.2 runs, and Tommy Joseph is the only batter in the projected starting lineup who sports positive recent advanced stats across the board. Cole will work with 6.3 predicted strikeouts, a 90 Park Factor, and an 81 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings. It’s only happened six times in the FantasyLabs database, but those pitchers generated a +7.70 Plus/Minus and exceeded salary-based expectations five times.
Hard-Hit Differential (%): -26, Jason Hammel
This is just the tip of the iceberg. As Bryan Mears accentuated in today’s Slate Breakdown, Hammel’s advanced stats belie his recent performance – a -7.19 Plus/Minus on FanDuel and -3.99 Plus/Minus on DraftKings over the last nine starts. He leads all of Friday’s probable starters in batted-ball distance differential (-49 feet), exit velocity differential (-8 MPH), and overall distance and velocity. Hammel’s 7.2 predicted strikeouts currently rank third on Friday’s slate, and that’s boosted by the Brewers’ projected lineup displaying a slate-worst 0.320 SO/AB.
Bargain Rating (%): 99 (FD), Michael Fulmer
In 14 career starts, Fulmer has recorded a +10.13 Plus/Minus and a 71.4 percent Consistency rating on FanDuel. His Plus/Minus has held firm as his salary escalated over the last eight starts, indicating his overall Plus/Minus isn’t inflated due to a depressed salary at the beginning of the season.
Fulmer leads all of Friday’s probable starters with a 61 percent ground-ball rate and an average of 2.41 seconds for batted balls in the air over the last 15 days. He benefits from the third-lowest opponent’s wOBA (0.269) based on projected lineups, and his velocity of 94.8 MPH over the fortnight ranks as the fourth-best.
