Batters
Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA): .476, Marcell Ozuna
Since last Tuesday when Bryan Mears covered Ozuna’s prolific wOBA, the Marlins outfielder has experienced a marginal drop of 0.08 points. Since the models reflect a running 12-month total and Ozuna still leads all hitters on the slate, it’s not panic-inducing slippage. The Marlins are one of seven teams currently implied to score fewer than 4.0 runs, yet Ozuna doesn’t offer salary relief on either of the two DFS platforms. Furthermore, as of last Friday, Ozuna swapped places with Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup, shifting down one spot to accommodate the Home Run Derby champion.
Isolated Power (ISO): .388, David Ortiz
Now that I finally get first crack at Ortiz, I don’t know what to write that hasn’t already been addressed. Ranking first or second in wOBA, ISO, slugging, and HR/AB over the past 12 months should open and close this discussion. His slate-high 81 Park Factor at Yankee Stadium against a starting pitcher with the third-worst HR/9 (1.6) suggests fireworks. A $300 decrease in salary on FanDuel over the past 10 games, despite a +3.60 Plus/Minus, resembles a Black Friday sale.
HR/AB: 0.085, Chris Davis
If you can’t afford David Ortiz on DraftKings, consider Chris Davis at a fraction of the cost. The leader in HR/AB costs $3,700. In the previous 16 times this season his listed price sank below $4k on DraftKings, Davis exceeded expectations half the time and recorded a +4.65 Plus/Minus. His 23 Park Factor introduces some risk, but if you’re going to pay up for pitching, Davis offers plenty of upside with the second-highest ISO and slugging percentage among first basemen.
Hard-Hit Differential (%): 30, Yangervis Solarte
Solarte combines a 99 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel with a 0 Park Factor in San Diego. He rarely strikes out, and he will bat from his stronger side. Alternatively, opposing left-handed pitcher Madison Bumgarner, who hasn’t yielded a run in two straight home starts while limiting opponents to five total hits in those 15 innings, diminishes Solarte’s appeal. And in two starts against the Padres this season, Bumgarner recorded 20 strikeouts and two wins. Essentially, Solarte’s blurb here morphed into a Bumgarner recommendation and the featured image. And in the last few hours, Bumgarner eclipsed Stephen Strasburg for the best moneyline (-200) on the slate.
Park Factor: 81, Lefties at Yankee Stadium
The Yankees will face knuckleballer Steven Wright and the Red Sox square off against Michael Pineda. The wind is currently projected to blow out to left field at eight miles per hour, favoring the right-handed batters such as leadoff hitter Mookie Betts, who possesses a 99 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Since the start of 2015, left-handed batters in the top five spots of the batting order at Yankee Stadium provided a +1.31 Plus/Minus on FanDuel and +0.77 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. That includes David Ortiz for the Red Sox, while the Yankees — currently implied to score 4.7 runs — offer a solid three-man stack of Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, and switch-hitter Carlos Beltran. When the opposing pitcher is right-handed at Yankee Stadium, all three combine for a +1.10 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +1.50 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Bargain Rating (%): 99 (FD), Adam Duvall
Only 11 of the 14 hitters with a 99 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel are currently projected to start. Three of the Padres hitters at the top of the order reside on a team currently implied to score 3.2 runs, removing them from the conversation.
Duvall was highlighted for two reasons: His team is currently implied to score a slate-high 5.0 runs and he participated in the Home Run Derby. Over the past 15 days, or eight games due to the All-Star break, Duvall hit the ball 22 feet shorter than his yearly average, yet his hard-hit percentage (+14 percent), exit velocity (+3 MPH), and line-drive rate (+16 percent) all suggest solid contact has been made.
At $3,000, Duvall needs only 9.21 points to meet expected value. When priced similarly earlier this season, Duvall contributed a +4.26 Plus/Minus on 51.7 percent Consistency.
Pitchers
K Prediction (SO): 9.6, Stephen Strasburg
The pitcher with the slate-high 11.8 SO/9 garners the highest strikeout prediction today. His current opponent’s 3.1 implied runs, nine Pro Trends on DraftKings, and seven Pro Trends on FanDuel leads all pitchers on Friday’s slate. Today’s MLB breakdown explains why you shouldn’t consider embarking on the SS Fade.
Park Factor: 89, Chris Archer
Over his past two starts, Archer’s percentage of strikes thrown is a slate-low 41 percent. As I mentioned last Friday, an umpire with a wide strike zone makes Archer a viable candidate. Even if the stars align for Archer, he’s a better play on DraftKings due to his 7.3 predicted strikeouts. When predicted for at least seven strikeouts this season, he’s sported a +0.54 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a -0.08 Plus/Minus on FanDuel, neither of which inspires much confidence.
Speed Differential (MPH): +1.6, Michael Pineda
Since June 2nd, Pineda improved his ERA 1.54 points to an awful 5.38. In those seven starts, he exceeded expectations six times and registered a +6.29 Plus/Minus on DraftKings, a +6.75 Plus/Minus on FanDuel, and a sterling 11.8 SO/9. Even though the Yankees are slight favorites, their implied run total has decreased 0.5 points since opening at 5.2 runs. Historically, pitchers facing a similar decrease in implied runs and an opponent implied to score in the proximity of 4.4 runs have experienced a -1.92 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and -2.06 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Bargain Rating (%): 99 (DK), Francisco Liriano
A pessimist would fixate on Liriano’s 25 percent Consistency this season and his matchup against Stephen Strasburg as reasons to shun. An optimist would consider Liriano as a contrarian play due to his year-low $4,900 salary requiring 10.78 DraftKings points in order to justify the roster spot, a benchmark he’s met in half his starts this season.
Liriano enters this matchup on six days of rest, a figure which has historically resulted in a career-high 10.0 SO/9, a slight bump from his yearly mark of 9.4. He’ll need all the help he can get after maxing out at three strikeouts and five innings in his last three starts.
