FantasyLabs is a data company. With our free Trends tool and Player Models, you can leverage our advanced statistics and premium exclusive metrics to identify players to use in your daily fantasy sports lineups.
Each weekday, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players in the day’s Main slate.
Batters
Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) Differential: .235, Tim Anderson
Anderson ranks second behind Willson Contreras, who leads all projected batters in wOBA (.714), wOBA Diff (.419), ISO (.857), ISO Diff (.857), slugging (1.3), and home runs per at-bat (0.15) 12 games into his career. Alternatively, Anderson’s .333 wOBA against right-handed pitchers is 10th among projected starting shortstops. This is a function of 13 career at-bats against left-handed pitchers. But you shouldn’t shun Anderson because his limited plate appearances spiked his differential. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven straight games on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and his 66-percent Consistency this month at DK outpaces every shortstop who’s played at least two games over the past month.
Park Factor: 61, Righties at Fenway Park
The contest between the Angels and Red Sox currently boasts a slate-high total of 10 runs, with the Red Sox implied to score 6.0. Both starting pitchers rank last in Opponent SO/AB, and Jhoulys Chacin, second cousin of Gustavo Chacin, will bring his ineffective 1.5 WHIP to the matchup — the fourth-worst mark among Friday’s starters.
Inclement weather will be a factor throughout the Northeast tonight, and the wind is projected to blow out to left field at 11 miles per hour. If the reports prior to lineup lock appear promising, stack away on FanDuel where the Red Sox’s top-seven projected batters register a Bargain Rating of at least 90 percent.
Monthly Salary Change: -$2,100 (DK)/-$1,500 (FD), Trevor Story
Allow me to introduce Story’s lowest salary on both DraftKings ($3,200) and FanDuel ($2,300) this season. The steep reduction may have been deliberate: Clayton Kershaw was the listed probable starter prior to landing on the DL, which likely suppressed salaries. In fact, every Rockies hitter except Story has a Bargain Rating of at least 84 percent on DraftKings. Even with the switch from Kershaw to right-handed pitcher Bud Norris, the Rockies are implied to score a slate-low 3.2 runs. The chart below offers a reason to consider Story on the road.
| Trevor Story | DraftKings | FanDuel | ||
| Plus/Minus | Consistency | Plus/Minus | Consistency | |
| Home | 0.94 | 47.1% | 1.88 | 50% |
| Road | 1.61 | 44.4% | 2.22 | 43.2% |
Monthly Consistency (%): 69% (FD & DK), Ian Desmond
In the 11 games Desmond donned a salary of at least $5,000 on DraftKings this year, he’s exceeded expectations seven times. Furthermore, when listed above $3,900 at FanDuel this year, Desmond has returned a +2.74 Plus/Minus on 58.8% Consistency. His stellar Consistency this month is a reminder that even at $5,200 on DraftKings and $4,000 on FanDuel, combined with negative wOBA and ISO differentials against right-handed pitchers, Desmond works as a pivot play from many of the other high-priced batters in Friday’s slate.
Bargain Rating (%): 99 (FD), Xander Bogaerts
Bogaerts’ salary of $3,300 on FanDuel marks his lowest price point of the 2016 season. The rollback is justified, as Bogaerts has failed to meet expectations in nine of his last 10 contests. At his listed price, Bogaerts needs to record 9.75 FD points in order to meet salary-based expectation. As mentioned already, the Red Sox are currently implied to score 6.0 runs. If you’re not going to take advantage of Trevor Story at Clayton Kershaw prices or Tim Anderson’s Consistency, consider Bogaerts a suitable alternative at shortstop, barring inclement weather.
Pitchers
K Prediction (SO): 7.6, Jacob deGrom
After failing to record more than six strikeouts in his first six starts, deGrom’s floor has been six strikeouts over the past seven starts. Currently the underdog, the Mets are implied to allow 3.6 runs. Pitchers with comparable predicted strikeouts, implied runs against, and underdog status on DraftKings have recorded a +2.87 Plus/Minus on 61.3% Consistency. Much like the weather conditions in Boston, check the forecast before locking deGrom into your lineup. The precipitation appears as though it will remain steady throughout the evening in Flushing, NY.
Park Factor: 95, Drew Smyly
In his last 10 starts, Smyly has met salary-based expectations twice and recorded a -5.97 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a -8.87 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. He’s also yielded 12 home runs in his last seven starts, resulting in a slate-high 1.7 HR/9. And to top off this veritable ice cream sundae, pitchers with a Park Factor of at least 95 have historically netted a -1.72 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a -2.08 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
The case can be made for using a tournament dart on DraftKings due to Smyly’s slate-high 10.2 SO/9, combined with the Tigers’ third-worst combined strikeouts per at-bat rate (0.295), but opposing pitcher Michael Fulmer has a similar Park Factor, a higher K Prediction, and a cheaper salary on FanDuel to allow such thoughts to permeate.
Moneyline: -213, Steven Wright
Wright benefits from the largest implied run total (6.0) on the slate. However, it’s worth noting that pitchers within Wright’s range of 4.5 predicted strikeouts and $10,100 salary have amassed a -2.97 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Because of his low strikeout prediction and weather concerns potentially abbreviating his outing, it may be best to locate alternative options if you’re not pursuing win bonuses.
Hard-Hit Differential (%): -14, Jeremy Hellickson
Over the past 15 days, Hellickson ranks top-two in Exit Velocity allowed (87 MPH), top-three in Batted-Ball Distance allowed (187), and first in Hard-Hit Differential among Friday’s probable starters. All of his recent differentials bode well for his outlook, but that omnipresent rain will likely make an appearance throughout the day in Philadelphia.
Bargain Rating (%): 99 (FD), Julio Teheran
Teheran is riding a streak of five straight games with at least seven strikeouts and 17 straight shutout innings against the New York Mets in back-to-back starts. He possesses a slate-best 1.07 WHIP, and there’s no rain in the forecast. The salary savings comparable to DraftKings still lists Teheran as the fourth-most expensive pitcher on FanDuel. But with two of them, DeGrom and Wright, potentially getting rained out, Teheran looks like a solid cash-game threat, especially with the recent surge in velocity — an increase of 1.1 miles per hour in those two starts against the Mets.
