FantasyLabs is a data company. With our free Trends tool and Player Models, you can leverage our advanced statistics and premium exclusive metrics to identify players to use in your daily fantasy sports lineups.
Each weekday, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players in the day’s Main slate.
Batters
Baby, when we’re grinding, I get so excited. Ooh, how I like it. I try but I can’t fight it.
– Next, “Too Close”
Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA): .451, Jose Altuve
Tommy Joseph (0.492 wOBA) was featured yesterday, Ryan Braun (.464 wOBA) headlined on Tuesday, Jurickson Profar (.462 wOBA) isn’t projected to start, and David Ortiz (.452 wOBA) was profiled on Wednesday. Altuve it is!
Altuve is the most expensive hitter on DraftKings at $5,600. Despite an active seven-game hitting streak, he has reached his Upside in only three percent of games this month. At his current salary, he needs to produce 9.86 DK points to meet value, which seems feasible with the Astros currently having a slate-high implied Vegas total of 5.7 runs. However, batters in Altuve’s situation have historically supplied a -0.34 Plus/Minus. He’s a safer option on FanDuel, where he leads all second basemen with nine Pro Trends and a 98-percent Bargain Rating.
Plus/Minus, Upside, Bargain Rating, Pro Trends, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Isolated Power (ISO): .388, Ryan Zimmerman
Zimmerman had a much-needed day of rest on Thursday. In the six previous games, he went two-of-23 from the plate with 10 strikeouts while facing a left-handed starter once. To compound his situation, Zimmerman owns a .167 batting average against lefties this season, but his .147 BAbip can partially explain the recent downturn. His 0 Park Factor, negative advanced differentials over the past 15 days, and zero-percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings make him a tournament-only option if you choose to pivot off a cheaper Chris Davis.
Park Factor: 78, Lefties at Camden Yards
The Orioles possess four of the six left-handed batters projected to start tonight. In a Trend of the Day article, Jonathan Cabezas revealed that high-ISO left-handed batters at Camden Yards have supplied a +0.89 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Chris Davis is the only hitter who meets those parameters today, and he accounts for 66 percent of this trend’s instances on DraftKings and 58 percent on FanDuel. Excluding Davis, left-handed batters at Camden Yards have historically supplied a -0.44 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Distance Differential (Ft.): +44, Rougned Odor
The top 13 batters in Distance Differential were either questionable to play or not in their projected lineups. Enter Rougned Odor. His highest Rating belongs to the Bales Model on FanDuel, where he exhibits a 98-percent Bargain Rating. His recent advanced stats have improved quite drastically — he has a Hard-Hit Differential (%) of +15 and Exit Velocity Differential (MPH) of +6 — and he has also exceeded salary-based expectations in half of his last 10 contests.
Hard-Hit Differential (%): +27, Pedro Alvarez
Alvarez is one of those left-handed batters projected to start at Camden Yards. It would be his first game since Sunday. Over the past two weeks, his Exit Velocity jumped to 96 miles per hour, and he’s recently hitting the ball 35 feet farther than his yearly average. Most of the action in this game is on the Blue Jays, who are currently implied to score 4.9 runs. The contrarian would load up on the Orioles, especially those who’ve been crushing the ball recently.
Bargain Rating (%): 99 (FD), Wilson Ramos
Ramos is one of 13 hitters on FanDuel listed at 99 percent. It’s significant because his teammates Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, and Michael Taylor (although Taylor might not play) also possess 99-percent Bargain Ratings. Additionally, Jayson Werth and Danny Espinosa have 98- and 97-percent Bargain Ratings. With the Nationals implied to score 4.3 runs, you could stack their 5 through 8 hitters for relatively cheap. Ramos intrigues me, as his opposite-field home run in Petco Park last night extended his streak to eight straight starts with at least one RBI.
Pitchers
It’s Friday night, and I feel alright. The party is here on the West side. So I reach for my [pitcher] and I turn it up.
– Montell Jordan, “This is How We Do It”
K Prediction (SO): 7.6, Jon Gray
All credit goes to a subscriber who introduced me to the following trend: Gray has produced a +5.59 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and +9.59 Plus/Minus on FanDuel in nine career road starts. As he is today, he was the underdog in seven of those games. Gray’s 91 Park Factor leads all pitchers. Especially with a 95-percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, Gray has proven his mettle enough (on the road) to warrant tournament consideration.
Moneyline (ML): -260, Lance McCullers
As the Astros continue to tack on implied runs, McCullers continues to benefit from an increasing moneyline. Pitchers who’ve experienced a closing moneyline of between -240 and -280 have provided a +8.61 Plus/Minus on FanDuel and a +3.90 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. McCullers has fanned at least seven batters in five straight starts, and he’s projected for 7.3 punchouts against the Reds. Additionally, he leads all pitchers in Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Pitch Velocity Differential (MPH): +2.0, Jeff Samardzija
In Samardzija’s last two starts, his fastball velocity has exceeded his yearly average by two MPH, but he has failed to meet his expected point total in three straight outings. Over the last 15 days, opponents are hitting the ball 10 feet further and three miles per hour faster. In that timeframe, when they’ve hit the ball, they’ve hit it hard 47 percent of the time.
On a macro level, pitchers who’ve experienced an increase of velocity between 1.5 and 2.5 MPH have recorded a -0.17 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a -1.69 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. This is more Aaron Paul’s Need for Speed than Maverick’s “need, the need for speed.”
Bargain Rating (%): 99 (FD), Zach Davies
All three pitchers with a 99-percent Bargain Rating are projected for no more than five strikeouts, and two of them square off in the Mariners-Red Sox affair.
Davies benefits from having Mike Everitt behind the plate, an umpire who has historically added a +1.2 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Despite averaging 52.0 FanDuel points over his last three starts, Davies is the road underdog. Even more puzzling, he’s the only pitcher on FanDuel without any Pro Trends. Under such conditions, pitchers historically yield a -5.95 Plus/Minus.
Bonus
Pro Trends: 13 (DK), Rickie Weeks
Projected to hit cleanup for the Diamondbacks, Weeks edges out Chris Davis for most Pro Trends in the main slate. If you’re a daily consumer of FantasyLabs articles, you understand why double-digit Pro Trends signal good fortune.
