The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday’s Showdown slate features the St. Louis Cardinals at the Los Angeles Dodgers at 8:10 pm ET. We’ll be using Bales Player Model to highlight some of the top options to consider.
Pitchers
The two pitchers on the mound today are:
- Max Scherzer (R)
- Adam Wainwright (R)
Max Scherzer is priced at $17,100 CPT/$11,400 UTIL, making him the most expensive player on the slate. The Player Model has him with the highest Floor/Ceiling Projection by a significant margin. The projected Plus/Minus is a whopping 18.96! On the season, Scherzer has produced an 11.84 K/9, 1.81 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, and a 2.87 FIP. The swinging-strike rate is a robust 15.7%.
As for the matchup, the Cardinals are only 25th in both strikeouts and ISO against right-handed pitching. They have been a very good team on the road, though, as they are third in ISO. That said, the Vegas Dashboard has the Cardinals implied for only 3.0 runs, so plating runs could be an issue tonight.
If there’s a glimmer of hope for Cardinals fans, it’s that Scherzer has been prone to the occasional blowup. He’s allowed five earned runs in each of the last two regular-season starts and got lit up for seven earned runs back in July. The FIP is also 3.36 at home compared to 2.68 on the road, while the HR/9 is 1.58 at home. To squash that flicker of light, Scherzer has faced the Cardinals twice this season and gone for 31.9 and 44.4 DraftKings points.
In terms of splits, the FIP is 3.28 against lefties compared to 2.68 against righties. The walk rate is much higher against righties, while the strikeout rate is slightly lower. That said, it’s still 30.8% against lefties while it’s 37.4% against righties.
I thought a fade could be warranted with Gerrit Cole last night, but I can’t do the same with Scherzer tonight regardless of the ownership. I will look to differentiate elsewhere.
Adam Wainwright is priced at $15,600 CPT/$10,400 UTIL. He’s 40 years old, but he has had a remarkable season. He pitched 206.1 innings and notched a 17-7 record. Wainwright was never a high-velocity pitcher but instead relied on a cutter and a wicked curveball to keep batters off-balance. On the season, the K/9 is 7.59, BB/9 is 2.18, HR/9 is 0.92, and FIP is 3.66. The swinging-strike rate is only 8.1%. He had the 14th-lowest barrel rate allowed and was 19th in hard-hit rate allowed.
The matchup is difficult as the Dodgers are 20th in strikeouts and eighth in ISO against right-handed pitching. At home, they had the highest ISO in the league. The Vegas Dashboard has the Dodgers implied for 4.6 runs.
Wainwright has been less effective on the road than at home. The walk rate goes from 1.61/9 to 3.12, while the HR/9 jumps from 0.77 to 1.15. The FIP is 4.22 on the road while it’s 3.33 at home. The numbers are almost identical against both righties and lefties.
He has faced the Dodgers once this season on September 8. He went 8.1 innings, allowed seven hits (one home run), four earned runs, and struck out four. That was good for 18.55 DraftKings points.
Hitters
Studs
Will Smith is the catcher for the Dodgers and will likely bat fifth in the order. He has never faced Wainwright, but he’s priced at $7,800 UTIL, and maybe he gets overlooked a bit? It’s a Showdown slate, so probably not, but one can hope. The reason why I like Smith so much is that he mashes right-handed pitching. In 363 plate appearances, the ISO is .259, the second-highest on the team. The walk rate is 11.8%, while the strikeout rate is only 20.7%.
AJ Pollock will likely bat sixth in the order, and he is priced at $7,400. He has faced Wainwright eight times in his career and notched three hits (one double) and struck out twice against him. It’s a small sample size, and I’m not a big BVP guy but just wanted to show the history. The main reason why I like Pollock is that he has a .247 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, right behind Smith. The strikeout rate is only 19.1%, while the walk rate is 6.4%.
Mookie Betts will likely bat leadoff and is priced at $9,200. The walk rate is 12.4%, while the strikeout rate is only 15.6%. Couple that with a .223 ISO, and yummy. While he hasn’t had the greatest of seasons compared to his history, Betts still has 23 home runs, 93 runs, and 10 stolen bases. The great things about Betts are that he bats atop the lineup has no discernible splits, and has multiple paths to fantasy goodies.
Tommy Edman is $8,000 and will likely bat leadoff for the Cardinals. The walk rate is only 5.5%, but the strikeout rate is only 13.7%. The slash is .262/.308/.387 with a .125 ISO. On the season, he has 11 home runs, 91 runs, and 30 stolen bases. He’s faced Scherzer 12 times in his career and notched four hits (one double) and struck out four times. He does have a home run off him, though, the only Cardinal to accomplish the feat. Like Betts, Edman has multiple paths to fantasy goodies, although the home run is a lower probability event.
Values and Punts
Gavin Lux will likely bat eighth in front of the pitcher, so that’s not ideal. He’s only $5,000, though. On the season, he has a 10.8% walk rate and 21.8% strikeout rate is 381 plate appearances. He has seven home runs, 49 runs, 46 RBI, and four stolen bases in 381 plate appearances. The slash is .242/.328/.364 with a .122 ISO. He’s much more productive against righties than lefties as the slash is .260/.343/.404 with a .144 ISO compared to .188/.286/.247 with a .059 ISO against lefties. He has no history against Wainwright.
Yadier Molina isn’t an exciting option as the slash is .252/.297/.370 with a .118 ISO. The walk rate is 5.1%, while the strikeout rate is only 16.7%. He has 11 home runs, 45 runs, 66 RBI, and three stolen bases. He has faced Scherzer 20 times in his career and only notched one double. At least he’s only struck out four times. Most of the main Cardinals hitters have a strikeout rate in the 40 to 50% range against Scherzer in their careers. Molina probably won’t do much, but he will get four at-bats and provides the salary to fit in higher-priced players.
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Photo Credit: Allen J. Schaben/Getty Images
Pictured: Max Scherzer
