Game 7 of the World Series, which begins on Wednesday at 8:08 p.m. ET, will see a pitching matchup between Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke.
The single-game DFS format will take center stage in the World Series. Let’s start by taking a brief look at the different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Format
FanDuel will use its traditional single-game format. That means you’ll have to roster one MVP, one All-Star, and three utilities. Your MVP will get a 2x scoring bonus while your All-Star will get a 1.5x scoring bonus. You don’t need to pay additional salary to roster players in those premium spots.
FanDuel also features only hitters. You won’t have to worry about choosing between any of the pitchers on either roster and can focus simply on which batters you think will score the most fantasy points.
The DraftKings format is a little more complicated — you have to roster six players instead of five, and you’ll have to choose between batters and pitchers. DraftKings also features a captain, who earns a 1.5x scoring multiplier but will cost 1.5x their traditional salary.
Relief pitchers also become viable options in this format. They aren’t as dominant as they were in previous seasons — having earned more points for innings pitched and strikeouts than starting pitchers last year — but they can still provide excellent value at their current salaries. Most of the relievers are priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, so pitchers who have the potential to pitch multiple innings are particularly intriguing.
Pitchers
Oddsmakers set the Astros as a -135 favorite (implied 57.4%) in Game 7.
Max Scherzer ($11,200) and Zack Greinke ($10,400) are the two highest-rated players in our MLB Models for Wednesday. Both pitchers are $200 less expensive than they were before their last outing.
Greinke has averaged 26.6 DraftKings PPG over the past year, compared to 34.6 for Scherzer, who owns the highest ceiling projection (99.7) floor projection (9.6), and average projection (24.1) amongst all players on the slate.
2019 was potentially Scherzer’s most efficient season ever, posting career-best marks in FIP, xFIP, K-BB%, and swinging-strike rate.
He has pitched with a broken finger all season, missed time in the second half with neck and shoulder injuries, and received a cortisone injection before Game 5 – forcing a late scratch.
He has pitched well in October (25 IP, 2.16 ERA, 11 BB, 34 K) but struggled at a lower fastball velocity late in the season – and he’s a risky play following the injection as his current effectiveness is a question mark.
Greinke has struggled in the postseason, and also makes for a risky play – completing five innings in just one postseason start. He has averaged 17.7 pitches per inning during the playoffs, nearly three pitches per inning higher than his regular-season average (14.95).
The Nationals will likely turn to Patrick Corbin ($10,000), Daniel Hudson ($4,200), and Tanner Rainey ($3,600) after Scherzer is done. Corbin is too pricey, and the other two have struggled in the World Series against the Astros.
Jose Urquidy ($8,800) is in a similar spot as Corbin – likely to pitch multiple innings, but too costly to include in lineups
Astros Projected Lineup
- 1. George Springer (R)
- 2. Jose Altuve (R)
- 3. Michael Brantley (L)
- 4. Alex Bregman (R)
- 5. Yuli Gurriel (R)
- 6. Yordan Alvarez (L)
- 7. Carlos Correa (R)
- 8. Robinson Chirinos (R)
- 9. Josh Reddick (L)
Michael Brantley (146 wRC+ against RHP) remains the preferred split option in Game 7 after seeing a $600 price reduction from Game 6 – aligning his salary with his Game 3 cost. He is one of seven batters on this slate to average more than 10 PPG over the past year.
George Springer is in line for World Series MVP, while again showing the highest average projection (9.2), floor (2.1), and ceiling (31.3). Including the postseason, Springer has paced for more than 50 home runs while hitting out of the leadoff spot and had the eighth-best regular season ISO amongst all hitters (min. 450 PA).
Yordan Alvarez (181 wRC+ against RHP) smoked three balls in Game 5, but couldn’t stay hot in Game 6. Though his price has not moved, he’s a solid investment off of a bad game with a higher ceiling projection than Juan Soto
Jose Altuve’s cost is down $600 from Game 3. He leads the slate in PPG over the past month and has hits in 15 of 17 postseason games.
Alex Bregman’s cost is down $1,000 from Game 3 and $800 from Game 6. He has three home runs during this World Series, but our models prefer Altuve once again.
Our MLB Models continue to like Yuli Gurriel, who snapped a six-game hitting streak on Tuesday. However, his .598 OPS this postseason shows how much he has struggled.
Carlos Correa recorded another extra-base knock in Game 6 and continues to heat up late in these playoffs, but our projections prefer Brantley or Eaton at a reduced cost.
Nationals Projected Lineup
- 1. Trea Turner (R)
- 2. Adam Eaton (L)
- 3. Anthony Rendon (R)
- 4. Juan Soto (L)
- 5. Howie Kendrick (R)
- 6. Asdrubal Cabrera (S)
- 7. Ryan Zimmermann (R)
- 8. Kurt Suzuki (R)
- 9. Victor Robles (L)
Asdrubal Cabrera is 16-for-37 in the regular season against Greinke and went 2-for-3 against Greinke in Game 3. He is also $1,400 cheaper on DraftKings ($6,600) than he was for Game 3, presenting some value at the reduced price point.
Trea Turner and Adam Eaton continue to popup as the two highest-rated Nationals hitters in our MLB Models. Turner has the highest ceiling (28.9), floor (2.1), and projection (8.7) amongst Nats hitters, but Eaton has the better Plus/Minus projection. Turner is $600 less expensive for Game 7 than he was for Game 3.
Our models remain low on Victor Robles, who has the lowest average exit velocity (87 mph) and shortest average flyball distance (191 feet) of any Game 7 regular, and Ryan Zimmermann, who posted an 89 wRC+ this season following a resurgent (118 wRC+) 2018. They are also down on Howie Kendrick and his .685 postseason OPS.
Juan Soto will be included in many lineups. The young starlet owns a 155 wRC+ against righties and leads all batters on this slate with 12.6 PPG over the past year (second with 12.5 PPG over the past month). His price is also down $600 from Game 3, but I’ll look elsewhere.
Anthony Rendon costs more to roster than Soto, which makes him a contrarian option while averaging 12.3 PPG over the past year and 12.1 PPG over the past month. Rendon has arguably the second-best power profile on the slate behind Yordan Alvarez.
