The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday’s main slate features four games starting at 1:07 pm ET. We’ll be using Bales Player Model to highlight some of the top options to consider.
Note: The Astros-White Sox game was postponed shortly after this article was submitted.
Pitchers
The four pitchers projected to score the most fantasy points today in our Player Models are:
- Max Scherzer (R)
- Carlos Rodon (L)
- Eduardo Rodriguez (L)
- Alex Wood (L)
Max Scherzer has the highest projection, is the most expensive, and will likely be the most rostered pitcher on today’s slate. There’s a lot to like as the SO/9 is 11.227, and the WHIP is 0.833. The Vegas Dashboard has the Giants implied for only 3.1 runs, the lowest by a wide margin. The Giants are also 10th in strikeouts against right-handed pitching.
That said, there are some things to consider. Over his last three starts, Scherzer has failed to pitch past five innings and posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of those outings. He scored 9.05, 3.39, and 11.54 DraftKings points. In addition, the Giants are third in ISO against right-handed pitching, and Scherzer has been prone to the long ball on occasion.
The projected ownership is over 40%, and Scherzer does have a higher FIP at home than on the road. Decisions, decisions. Or make one Scherzer lineup and one fade Scherzer one.
Carlos Rodon has the highest SO/9 on the slate at 12.404. The WHIP and HR/9 numbers are both below 1.0 as well. He’s behind Scherzer in terms of projection, but the projected ownership is more than half. The Vegas Dashboard has the Astros implied for 4.3 runs, and they have been tough against left-handed pitching all season long – last in strikeouts and fifth in ISO. That said, Rodon faced the Astros twice this season and put up 26.15 and 39.15 DraftKings points. Granted, those were back in June and July. Rodon has a 62% Consistency Rating on the season and 50% over the past month.
Note: The Astros-White Sox game was postponed shortly after this article was submitted.
Eduardo Rodriguez has the highest projected Plus/Minus, the highest Leverage score (95%), and points per salary as he is priced at only $6,500. The projected ownership is in the 9-12 percent range. He is prone to the long ball (1.025), though, and he has the highest WHIP (1.301) on the slate.
That said, the Rays are third in strikeouts and 11th in strikeouts against left-handed pitching. Rodriguez just faced them five days ago and lasted only 1 2/3 innings while giving up two earned runs. The range of outcomes is wide in this one, as he could get pulled early, or he could throw the projected pitch count of 95 according to the Player Model. If so, then he would smash his price tag.
Alex Wood does a great job limiting the long ball, as the HR/9 is only 0.774. The WHIP is 1.168, though, and the SO/9 is only 9.74. The Dodgers are 17th in strikeouts and third in ISO against left-handed pitching, so the matchup is difficult. The Vegas Dashboard has the Dodgers implied for 4.5 runs. Wood has faced them three times this season and put up 17.5, 17.3, and 13.25 DraftKings points.
Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Note: The Astros-White Sox game was postponed shortly after this article was submitted.
The top projected stack is Houston. A five-player Astros stack will cost $20.9K on DraftKings with a projection of 41.4 points.
- Yulieski Gurriel (R)
- Jose Altuve (R)
- Alex Bregman (R)
- Michael Brantley (L)
- Yordan Alvarez (L)
The Astros are implied for 4.3 runs. They do have to face Carlos Rodon and the White Sox bullpen, though, which has the fourth-lowest FIP in MLB.
Yulieski Gurriel will likely bat fifth in the lineup and is the top projected first baseman on the slate. He has a .319/.383/.462 slash with a .143 ISO. The walk rate is 9.8%, while the walk rate is only 11.2%. Against left-handed pitching, the ISO is .204 compared to .112 against righties.
Jose Altuve will likely bat leadoff for the Astros. He is the second-highest projected second baseman behind Trea Turner. Altuve has 31 home runs and 117 runs on the season. Against left-handed pitching, he has a .278/.335/.455 slash with a .176 ISO.
Alex Bregman missed a ton of time this season, so only racked up 400 plate appearances. As a result, he only hit 12 home runs with 54 runs and 55 RBI. The plate discipline numbers were fantastic, though, as the walk rate was 11% while the strikeout rate was only 13.3%. He will likely bat third in the lineup, and against left-handed pitching, he has a .300/.397/.442 slash with a .142 ISO.
Michael Brantley will likely bat second in the lineup. He’s not a bopper or a menace on the basepaths, as he only has eight home runs and one stolen base on the season. He rarely strikes out (10.4%) and puts the ball in play. The slash is .311/.362/.437. He’s much better against righties than lefties, as the slash is only .219/.261/.314 with a .095 ISO against lefties, but he’s only $3,500 and has the fifth-highest projection at the outfield position.
Yordan Alvarez is the main bopper for the Astros and will likely bat cleanup. He has 33 home runs, 92 runs, and 104 RBI on the season. He strikes out the most on the Astros (24.2%), but the slash is .277/.346/.531 with a robust .253 ISO. He has no discernible splits as he’s just as adept in the batting average and power against both-handed pitchers.
Other Hitters
Nelson Cruz has a .316/.375/.538 slash with a .222 ISO against left-handed pitching. He faces Eduardo Rodriguez, who has been decent against righties, but the FIP is 3.43, and the strikeout rate decreases 8% when compared to lefties. Cruz will likely bat cleanup, and the Player Model has him projected as the fourth-best hitter on the slate.
Trea Turner is the fifth-highest projected hitter on the slate. Alex Wood is a tough pitcher as the K/9 is 10.35, and the HR/9 is only 0.93 against righties. That said, the FIP is 3.47, and Turner absolutely has mashed left-handed pitching this season. The slash is .392/.437/.712 with a .320 ISO. Turner also can score in multiple ways as he has 32 stolen bases to go along with his 28 home runs.
Eloy Jimenez isn’t even the top projected hitter on his own team, but he’s the cheapest and does the best against right-handed pitching. The slash is .275/.320/.475 with a .200 ISO against righties compared to .170/.254/.321 with a .151 ISO against lefties. Jose Urquidy struggles against righties as the K/9 is only 7.74 while the HR/9 is 1.82, and the FIP is 4.64.
Value Play
Christian Yelich is the second highest-rated batter on the slate, and he’s only $3,600. I know, I know. He hasn’t been good this season and only has nine home runs and nine stolen bases. He will likely bat third in the lineup, and at least the slash has been much better against right-handed pitching than against lefties – .271/.387/.394 vs .187/.294/.318. Ian Anderson has allowed a 1.44 HR/9 and 4.49 FIP to lefties.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
