The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Both DraftKings and FanDuel will offer a 15-game all-day slate starting at 12:10 p.m. ET.
DraftKings will also have a seven-game early slate beginning at 1:05 p.m. ET. FanDuel decided to chop the early slate(s) into separate ones. And both of its eight-game main slates will be underway at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On FanDuel, there are four pitchers who cost $10,000 or higher:
- Justin Verlander (R), $11,100, HOU vs. OAK
- Patrick Corbin (L), $10,800, WSH vs. COL
- Shane Bieber (R), $10,100, CLE @ TOR
- Noah Syndergaard (R), $10,000, NYM vs. SD
We have an abundance of top-priced pitchers on Wednesday’s slate, and three of these four guys are on the main slate. Verlander checks in as the most expensive pitcher on the early slate for his matchup against the A’s. He’s been great this season, pitching to a 3.63 xFIP with a 32.2% strikeout rate.
The matchup doesn’t stand out on paper as the projected A’s lineup has a 26.7% strikeout rate and .339 wOBA against righties over the last 12 months, but Verlander still leads the early slate in K Prediction (9.4), moneyline odds (-217) and opponent implied run total (3.4), all of which are strong marks.
Verlander is among the best options on the early slate of games.
Corbin has a strong matchup against the Rockies. The Rockies typically struggle on the road, and this season they rank 27th in both wOBA and Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against lefties while on the road. Their projected lineup also carries a high 28.5% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers over the past year.
He stands out as the top option on the main slate, leading all pitchers in median projections by around six points in our models at the time of writing.
Credit: Geoff Burke-USA Today Sports. Pictured: Patrick Corbin
Bieber has a solid strikeout floor with his 8.1 K Prediction, and he’s entering this game with an excellent 3.14 xFIP and 31.1% strikeout rate. And with the Nationals-Rockies game off the board at the time of writing, the Jays’ 4.0 implied run total is tied for the second-lowest mark on the main slate.
It’s also a rather unimposing matchup considering the Jays rank just 25th in wRC+ against righties this season. Bieber has been plenty consistent of late, averaging a +3.95 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 67% Consistency Rating over the past month. If you need the savings from Corbin, Bieber is a fine secondary option.
Syndergaard has averaged a putrid -1.56 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 26% Consistency Rating this year and is entering this game with a 4.03 xFIP and a meager 17.5% K-BB%. However, the projected Padres lineup has a high 28.3% strikeout rate and weak .292 wOBA against righties over the past year.
While I wouldn’t feel comfortable using him in cash, Syndergaard is tournament viable in this spot given the exploitable matchup. Further, he’s entering this game with solid Statcast data, holding opposing hitters to a 186-foot average distance with a 90-mph exit velocity and 33% hard-hit rate. Overall, the Mets have favorable Vegas data (-150 moneyline odds and 3.8 opponent implied run total), and he’s coming off two strong starts, although those starts came against the Giants and Marlins.
Values
Value options are hard to find on Wednesday, but Julio Teheran has a 73% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. He’ll take on a projected Royals lineup that has a middling 25.5% strikeout rate, but a wOBA of just .291 over the last 12 months against right-handed pitchers.
It shouldn’t be too daunting of a matchup for Teheran since the Royals are implied for just 4.0 runs.
Reynaldo Lopez could be another option against an underwhelming Marlins team that ranks 29th or worse against right-handed pitchers in ISO, wOBA and wRC+ this season. He carries a top four Projected Plus/Minus on both sites, but he’s a better value on DraftKings where he has an 86% Bargain Rating.
Fastballs
Mike Minor: He’s probably the only guy on the early slate that rivals Verlander. Minor has an 8.3 K Prediction, and he’ll face a projected Mariners lineup that has a slate-high 29.8% strikeout rate and a 3.9 implied run total — the second-lowest mark on the slate.
Jon Lester: You can also make a case for Lester against an underwhelming Giants team that has a 3.9 implied run total. Its projected lineup possesses a 27.5% strikeout rate and .264 wOBA against lefties over the last 12 months, and ranks just 29th in wRC+ against them this season.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. One of the top four-man DraftKings stacks for the early slate in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.
- 1. Scott Kingery (R)
- 2. Jean Segura (R)
- 3. Bryce Harper (L)
- 4. Rhys Hoskins (R)
Total salary: $17,500
The Phillies will square off against Jordan Zimmerman, who has been shaky over the last year, sporting a 1.52 WHIP, 1.94 HR/9 and 6.49 K/9. He’s also been terrible over his last three starts, allowing 20 earned runs and 28 hits across just 11 innings.
Segura has been out recently with a heel injury so be sure to pay attention as lineups start to roll in. The Phillies could see some ownership since their 5.8 implied run total leads the early slate. It should be an excellent spot for Hoskins as the matchup against the righty will put him on the positive side of his splits.
Over the past year, Hoskins has hit righties to the tune of a .381 wOBA and .281 ISO. Additionally, he’s got solid Statcast data right now, boasting a 251-foot average batted-ball distance with a 92-mph exit velocity, though his 26% hard-hit rate could need improvement.
One of the top FanDuel stacks for the main slate in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- 1. Joc Pederson (L)
- 2. Alex Verdugo (L)
- 3. Justin Turner (R)
- 4. Cody Bellinger (L)
Total salary: $14,900
The Dodgers will take on Jaimie Barria, who enters this game with a 4.70 xFIP and 15.3% K-BB% this year. Barria will try and shake off his last start in which he allowed a whopping 10 runs to the Mariners.
Pederson will do his best to exploit the righty as he’s in excellent form over the past two weeks, possessing a 246-foot average distance, 95-mph exit velocity and 57% hard-hit rate. All of those marks exceed his 12-month averages by a substantial amount. Most notably, his recent distance exceeds his 12-month average by +32 feet, and his hard-hit rate is 13 percentage points higher.
Not to mention Pederson has obliterated righties over the last 12 months with his .363 wOBA and .301 ISO. Bellinger has the second-highest median projection on FanDuel among outfielders and is also going to be the on the positive side of his splits, owning a .461 wOBA and .326 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past year.
Other Batters
One of the top hitters in the Bales Model is Mitch Garver. He carries the third-highest median projection and second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. The matchup against the lefty will put Garver on the positive side of his splits, and he’s crushed lefties over the past 12 months, possessing a .458 wOBA and .371 ISO.
Overall, Garver’s a solid value on FanDuel with his 88% Bargain Rating. It’s not surprising to see him stand out in Bales’ model when you look at Garver’s recent batted-ball data. Over the last two weeks, he has a 237-foot average distance, 98-mph exit velocity and 65% hard-hit rate.
Writing up Christian Yelich isn’t exactly bold, but he leads all hitters in median projections during the early slate of games.
Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Christian Yelich
He’s averaged a +5.10 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 60% Consistency Rating over his last 10 games, and he’s going to be on the positive side of his splits, flaunting an absurd .513 wOBA and .410 ISO over the past year against right-handed pitchers.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis or how to bet on sports.
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Pictured above: Justin Verlander
Photo credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports
