The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a split slate. The early slate starts at 2:10 p.m. ET, with FanDuel featuring three games and DraftKings featuring two. Both sites have an 11-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers are priced above the rest today on FanDuel:
- Gerrit Cole (R) $12,000, HOU vs. TB
- Max Scherzer (R) $11,400, WSH vs. BAL
- Jack Flaherty (R) $10,300, STL @MIL
Cole has been phenomenal this season, pitching to a 2.75 ERA and 2.97 FIP. He’s also been dominant from a strikeout perspective, averaging a career-best K/9 of 13.09. He’s also crushed over his past 10 starts in particular, averaging a Plus/Minus of +9.17 on FanDuel.
Cole is in a difficult spot today vs. the Tampa Bay Rays – their projected lineup has posted a .340 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months – but he’s still getting a ton of respect from Vegas. His opponent implied team total of 3.3 runs ranks second on the slate, while his -198 moneyline odds rank third.
He also enters this contest in solid recent Statcast form. He limited his most recent opponent to an average distance of 195 feet, which represents a decrease of -21 feet when compared to his 12-month average. He’s an interesting option in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Scherzer stands out as the preferred stud target for cash games. He’s in an elite spot vs. the Baltimore Orioles, whose projected lineup has struggled to a .288 wOBA and 24.1% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months.
His Vegas data in this matchup is absolutely elite. He owns a 2.9 opponent implied team total and -397 moneyline odds, and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.16 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool). Scherzer has personally fit this trend on three previous occasions and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.60. Scherzer and Justin Verlander are the only pitchers in our database to match this trend more than once, so this is the type of spot that doesn’t come around very often.
The only real concern with Scherzer is how deep he’ll be allowed to pitch in this contest. He’s making just his second start since coming off the Injured List, and he was limited to four innings and 71 pitches in his last outing. It seems reasonable for him to see a solid increase in today’s start, but don’t expect him to throw more than 100 pitches or so.
Flaherty headlines the early slate, and he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the second half of the season. He’s pitched to a 0.73 ERA and 2.23 FIP since the All-Star break while increasing his K/9 to 11.68. He has unsurprisingly dominated from a fantasy perspective, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past nine starts on DraftKings.
Unfortunately, he’s in a difficult spot today vs. the Milwaukee Brewers. They rank ninth in wRC+ against right-handers since the All-Star break, and they’re currently implied for 4.2 runs.
Flaherty still stands out as a strong option on DraftKings, where his $9,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Values
Kyle Hendricks is coming off an excellent start in his last outing, limiting the Giants to three hits and zero runs over seven innings. He’s been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball over the past few months, allowing two earned runs or fewer in nine of his past 10 starts.
Hendricks is in a solid spot today vs. the New York Mets, who have suddenly gone ice cold at the dish. They rank just 28th in wRC+ vs. right-handers over the past seven days. Their projected lineup has also struggled with strikeouts against right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a 28.7% strikeout rate.
Still, where Hendricks excels is with his ability to limit damage on balls in play, and he’s done that really well recently. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 187 feet and hard hit rate of 18% over his past two starts, both of which represent significant decreases when compared to his 12-month averages.
He’s a particularly strong target today on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 89%.
Anthony DeSclafani is taking on the Miami Marlins, which automatically puts him in consideration for DFS. The Marlins have been miserable against right-handers this season, ranking 29th in wRC+ and sixth in strikeout rate. Right-handed pitchers have dominated against the Marlins this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.71 on FanDuel.
DeSclafani’s opponent implied team total of 3.8 runs ranks fourth on the main slate, and he’s also a -151 favorite. DeSclafani has also posted a K/9 of 9.16 this season, so he has significant upside as well. He’s reasonably priced across the industry considering the matchup.
Fastballs
Noah Syndergaard: He’s actually a slight favorite vs. Hendricks and the Cubs, and his opponent implied team total of 3.7 runs ranks third on the main slate. He’s a better target on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 85%.
James Paxton: He has a strong claim for the top pitching spot on the early slate. He’s taking on the Seattle Mariners and leads all early pitchers in opponent implied team total, moneyline odds, and K Prediction.
Kenta Maeda: He’s in a great spot today vs. the San Diego Padres, whose projected lineup has posted a .281 wOBA and 25.0% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. He owns a 3.9 opponent implied team total and -175 moneyline odds, and his $8,000 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%.
Notable Stacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
- 1. Rhys Hoskins (R)
- 2. Bryce Harper (L)
- 3. J.T. Realmuto (R)
- 5. Jean Segura (R)
Total Salary: $15,100
The Phillies are only available on the FanDuel early slate, with DraftKings choosing to omit their game vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates. That said, they look like an elite target on FanDuel. They’re currently implied for 5.5 runs, which trails only the Yankees’ mark of 5.8 on the early slate. Their top stack is also more reasonably priced than the Yankees top stack, giving them nearly identically Team Value Ratings.
They’re taking on right-hander Mitch Keller, who has pitched to a 7.24 ERA through his first 27.1 MLB innings. His advanced metrics suggest he’s due for some positive regression, but his 4.51 xFIP still makes him a subpar pitcher.
The Phillies also collectively enter this contest in excellent recent form. Each of the stacked batters has outperformed their 12-month average distance over the past 15 days, and Harper, Realmuto, and Segura have also outperformed their 12-month hard hit rate.
On the main slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack belongs to the Washington Nationals:
- 1. Trea Turner (R)
- 2. Adam Eaton (L)
- 3. Anthony Rendon (R)
- 4. Juan Soto (L)
- 5. Matt Adams (L)
Total Salary: $25,300
The Nationals are currently implied for 6.2 runs, which ranks second on the main slate. That said, they could fly a bit under the radar. There are two big names to consider paying up for at pitcher, and most people who choose to pay up on offense will likely target the Red Sox at Coors Field.
They’re taking on Orioles right-hander Asher Wojciechowski, who has struggled this season. He’s posted a 4.67 ERA, and his 5.93 FIP suggests he’s been even worse than his traditional metrics indicate. He’s also allowed an average of 2.33 HRs per nine innings, and you can’t win a GPP without rostering a bunch of HR hitters.
Adams stands out given his recent Statcast profile. He’s posted an average distance of 260 feet over his past nine games, which represents an increase of +32 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Historically, batters with comparable implied team totals and distance differentials have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.44 on DraftKings.
Other Batters
Mookie Betts figures to be one of the highest-owned batters on the slate, but he deserves to be. He’s facing a mediocre pitcher in Peter Lambert at Coors Field, and his Statcast data from the past 15 days is incredible. He’s posted an average distance of 270 feet, exit velocity of 99 mph, and hard hit rate of 60%, and he leads all batters with 14 Pro Trends on DraftKings. You could make an argument that he’s actually underpriced at $5,700.
Robbie Grossman is much more affordable at $3,700 on DraftKings, which makes him an appealing value option to round out your roster. He’s expected to bat second for the A’s, who are currently implied for 5.1 runs, and he’s another batter with excellent recent Statcast data. He’s posted an average distance of 243 feet over his past 12 games, which represents an increase of +26 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
Rostering a catcher is not required on FanDuel, but Mitch Garver is still someone who deserves consideration. He’s one of the best pure values of the day given his Bargain Rating of 98%, and the Twins are implied for 6.1 runs. He’ll be on the positive side of his splits vs. White Sox left-hander Ross Detwiler, and Garver has posted a .456 wOBA and .343 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Red Sox OF Mookie Betts (50)
Photo credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
