Wednesday features an 11-game MLB DFS main slate on FanDuel starting at 6:37 p.m. ET, and 10-game main slate on DraftKings starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Tonight’s slate features three pitchers over the $10,000 mark on FanDuel:
Studs
- Clayton Kershaw (L), $10,700, LOS @ SFG
- Jacob DeGrom (R), $10,700, NYM vs. MIA
- Sonny Gray (R), $10,200, CIN @ MIL
Clayton Kershaw has now pitched seven innings in two consecutive starts and dominated in each, striking out 17 batters over 14 innings while allowing just two earned runs. On the other side, the San Francisco Giants come in fairing particularly poorly against lefties, collectively hitting to a .251 wOBA. They do strike out just 22.4% of the time, though, which a bit concerning given the recent history.
Kershaw struggled against this same lineup just three weeks ago, where he lasted just 4.1 innings and gave up four runs on seven hits. We’ll likely see a better performance in this one, but the limited strikeout upside is worrisome. His 5.81 K prediction is just the sixth highest on the slate, while his $10,700 price tag is tied for the most expensive. It will be difficult for him to hit value in this one.
Jacob DeGrom makes his third consecutive start against the Miami Marlins on Wednesday night. He was dominant in the first two, collecting 13 strikeouts in 11 innings while only allowing two earned runs. The Marlins are striking out 29.1% of the time against right-handed pitching, while DeGrom’s 11.25 K/9 is among the league’s best.
All signs point to another strong outing – the New York Mets are listed as a -255 favorite and the Marlins have a slate-low 2.9 implied team total. He’s the top pitching option in the Bales Model and has the highest K prediction (7.74) on the slate. Fire him up in cash games without hesitation.
Sonny Gray takes on a Milwaukee Brewers team that has been struggling of-late, averaging just 3.6 runs over their past five games. Their .309 wOBA against right-handed pitching is about average, but they’ve had success against Gray already this season. In his last start against Milwaukee earlier this month, he allowed four earned runs in just 5.1 innings of work.
The Brewers tallied nine total baserunners in that one, so the risk is here for Gray at an elevated $10,200 price tag. His projection in the Bales Model concurs, as his 2.9 Pts/Sal prediction is the lowest on the slate. Proceed with caution.
Values
Dinelson Lamet has an ideal matchup on Wednesday against a Seattle Mariners team that has struggled mightily at the plate so far against right-handed pitching, striking out 29% of the time in such matchups. Lamet has been excellent so far this season, pitching to a low 2.95 FIP and impressive 12.15 K/9. He offers similar upside to the top three options at a much more reasonable $9.300 price tag. He’s a great option for both cash games and GPPs.
Trevor Richards is among the least expensive options on the slate at just $5,600 on FanDuel. He’s struggled so far this season to the tune of a 5.94 ERA, but the numbers suggest he’s been a bit unlucky — his 4.24 FIP is more than 1.5 runs fewer. On Tuesday, he takes on an uninspiring Baltimore Orioles team that has not hit right-handed pitching particularly well so far, hitting to a below average .303 wOBA. At his bargain price tag, you don’t need much for him to pay off his modest salary. There is definitely risk, but even a mediocre outing should get you there.
Fastballs
Jose Berrios finally put together a dominant outing in his last start, pitching six innings of shutout baseball while allowing just one hit and striking out nine batters. It was an encouraging sign after struggling substantially in his previous two starts. The Cleveland Indians are near league average against righties (.317 wOBA), so the matchup isn’t awful, but his inconsistency so far makes him a fade for cash games. He’ll likely carry low ownership in GPPs.
Mike Clevinger makes his first start since Aug. 5 tonight. He’s struggled so far this season (6.28 FIP, 2.16 HR/9), but has a decent matchup against a Minnesota Twins team that has only hit to a .305 wOBA so far on the season against righties. At $9,400, though, there are better ways to spend your money. He’s a GPP flier at best.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man on DraftKings (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Oakland Athletics:
1. Marcus Semien (R)
2. Ramon Laureano (R)
3. Matt Chapman (R)
4. Mark Cahna (R)
5. Matt Olson (L)
Total Salary: $26,600
This A’s lineup hits lefties particularly well. On Wednesday, they have the good fortune of taking on second-year pitcher Kolby Allard, a southpaw that has struggled recently. In his last two starts, he’s lasted just 3.2 total innings and allowed 10 earned runs on 13 hits.
Marcus Semien is the top-rated player in the Bales Model as the projected leadoff hitter. He carries a strong .250 ISO against lefties on the season and is just $2,800 on FanDuel. Ramon Laureano is equally as inexpensive ($2,800) and has even better numbers, posting a .413 wOBA and .217 ISO against left-handed pitching so far on the season.
Matt Olson has reverse splits as a lefty himself, hitting an impressive .411 wOBA and .385 ISO against southpaws this season. His $3,300 price tag is a bit more expensive, but he’s worth every penny in this spot.
The St. Louis Cardinals also rank as the top four-man stack on FanDuel (per the Bales Model):
1. Kolton Wong (L)
2. Tommy Edman (S)
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)
4. Matt Carpenter (L)
Total Salary: $12,000
The St. Louis Cardinals take on Jakob Junis, a righty who’s struggled so far in 2020, pitching to a 6.49 FIP and allowing 2.0 HR/9 over his first two starts. Paul Goldschmidt has been outstanding versus right-handed pitching this season, hitting to a .452 wOBA and .208 ISO so far. Kolton Wong also provides elite value at his $2,700 price tag as the projected lead-off hitter. He’s among the top-rated players overall in the Bales Model on Tuesday and should be a key cog in any Cardinals stacks.
The Cardinals will likely be popular given their implied team total of 5.2 runs (tied for second highest on the slate), but their collectively cheap $12,000 salary makes it easy to differentiate elsewhere if you want to take advantage of this strong spot.
Other Batters
Ian Happ has been exceptional against right-handed pitching, logging an impressive .434 wOBA and .355 ISO against them so far. He’s projected to lead off against righty Michael Fullmer and is just $3,200 on FanDuel.
Kole Calhoun has been lights out this season against righties, collecting a .395 wOBA and .337 ISO in 99 plate appearances thus far. Right-hander Jon Gray is on the mound for the opposing team tonight, making Calhoun a strong bargain option at just $3,100. He’s projected to lead off for the Arizona Diamondbacks and comes in with 4 Pro Trends.
