The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday’s main slate features seven games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Carlos Rodon ($10,200) – San Francisco Giants (-123) at New York Mets
I was tempted to go with Logan Gilbert, since the projected ownership is half of Rodon and Gilbert isn’t too far behind Rodon from a projection standpoint, but Rodon is clearly the head of the class on the slate. In two starts so far this season, the K/9 is 15.75 while the FIP is 0.8. The fastball is averaging 97.2 mph, and the swinging strike rate is 15.6%. The Mets are projected for 3.2 runs, the lowest on the slate while the Giants are -123 favorites on the money line.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Daniel Lynch ($5,500) – Kansas City Royals (+109) vs. Minnesota Twins
Lynch gave up three home runs and six earned runs in his opening start of the season. Yuck. That said, he struck out seven while only walking one. Last season in 68 innings, Lynch only allowed 1.19 HR/9.
Lynch can miss bats as the swinging-strike rate has been double-digits throughout his brief MLB career. The Twins have a .304 SO/AB and are seventh in strikeouts against left-handed pitching this season. Sure, they are eighth in ISO, so there is some risk, but Lynch has normally done a good job of keeping the ball in the yard.
Lynch has a 94% Leverage Score, minuscule projected ownership, and is the cheapest pitcher on the slate.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Logan Gilbert ($9,800) – Seattle Mariners (-152) vs. Texas Rangers
Gilbert has half the projected ownership of Rodon and Bassitt, yet he’s projected for a similar score to Bassitt. The Rangers are projected for only 3.7 runs, and the Mariners are the biggest favorites on the slate.
The Rangers have a .251 SO/AB, which is decent, and a robust .353 wOBA. Gilbert could also be due for some regression, as the BABIP has been only .231 while he’s left 92.1% of runners on base. There are reasons why many are eschewing him, the elevated price included, but that is why he makes a perfect GPP play. It’s baseball and we know that anything can happen on any given slate.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Washington Nationals:
- Cesar Hernandez (1) ($3,900)
- Juan Soto (2) ($6,100)
- Nelson Cruz (3) ($5,000)
- Josh Bell (4) ($4,800)
- Keibert Ruiz (5) ($4,700)
Kelly has thrown well in his first two starts of the season, striking out 13 without allowing an earned run in 9 1/3 innings. That was against two quality opponents in Houston and San Diego. The FIP of 1.55 indicates that it’s legit. That said, he hasn’t allowed a home run yet and he’s left all runners on base. That’s unsustainable. In addition, the swinging strike rate is below 10% and the current 12.54 K/9 is well above his 7.77 career rate.
Washington has a SO/AB of .295 and a wOBA of only .231, so the matchup looks good, but they are projected for 4.6 runs and are -130 on the money line.
Last season against right-handed pitching, Soto had an ISO of .245, Cruz was at .226, and Bell had a .213 number.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT, when generated by ceiling belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
Note: Projections may change and influence the top stacks as the day progresses.
The BAT X actually had Tampa Bay and Chicago as the top stacks due to the 25 mph winds blowing out to the left field in Wrigley. That said, there are serious weather concerns and high risk of the game not getting played, so I pivoted to the next highest stack.
The Blue Jays have a SO/AB of only .221 while the wOBA is .360, the highest on the slate. Against right-handed pitching this season, the ISO is .194, the fourth-best.
Last season, Nick Pivetta allowed a .210 ISO to righties, which is a problem because Toronto has some of the best righty mashers. George Springer had a .291 ISO while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had a .319 ISO.
Toronto is projected for 5.1 runs, the highest on the slate.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Rafael Devers 3B ($5,900 DraftKings) – Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Jose Berrios)
Berrios got blasted in his first start, unable to get out of the first innings while allowing four earned runs. He did bounce back slightly in his next start, going five innings against the Yankees while striking out five. He did allow two home runs and three earned runs, though.
Last season against lefties, Berrios allowed a .238 ISO. Devers had a .329 ISO against right-handed pitching last season. One plus one equals two.
Seth Beer 1B ($3,300 DraftKings) – Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals (Erick Fedde)
He’s cheap, and the ownership will be minuscule, especially since he’s a first baseman. He does strike out a lot, and the early-season heater of .393/.452/.571 is fueled by an unsustainable BABIP of .556. Beer does have power, though. Last season against right-handed pitching, he had on ISO of .269 but it did come with a 34.5% strikeout rate. Fedde allowed a .201 ISO against lefties last season and his strikeout rate was only 20%.
Kyle Garlick OF ($2,000 DraftKings) – Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals (Daniel Lynch)
I mentioned earlier that Lynch had difficulty keeping the ball in the yard during his opening start. I don’t expect that trend to last all season, but it’s something that could fester for a few starts. Last season against righties, Lynch did allow a .222 ISO while striking out only 18.5%.
Garlick is dirt cheap and he could get the start and bat near the top the order. The ISO was .328 against left-handed pitching last season. Granted, the strikeout rate was 32.4% and the sample size was small at only 68 plate appearances. That said, he’s super cheap and the upside is immense.
