The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday’s main slate features four games starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Corbin Burnes ($9,600) Milwaukee Brewers (-182) at Baltimore Orioles
Burnes struggled in his opening start as he walked three, only struck out four, and allowed three earned runs in five innings. I’ll brush it off as opening game jitters. Last season, Burnes was magnificent, posting a 12.61 K/9, 1.83 BB/9, and a paltry 0.38 HR/9. The FIP was a ridiculous 1.63 last season.
He should get back on track today. The Orioles are only projected for 3.3 runs, and the ML is the highest on the slate.
Now, he is projected for massive ownership, so there is merit to fading him. Maybe it takes him a couple of starts to get into the groove. It’s baseball. Anything can happen. In addition, according to the opponent stats, the Orioles are projected for one of the lowest SO/AB while the wOBA is third-highest on the slate.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Shane McClanahan ($7,500) Tampa Bay Rays (-181) vs. Oakland Athletics
McClanahan struck out seven in his opening start but only threw 68 pitches in 4.1 innings of work. And therein lies the problem with McClanahan. There is no telling how deep he will go in any given contest. He threw at least 85 pitches in a game 10 times last season but also threw fewer than 70 pitches in seven contests. When he’s on the mound, though, he’s fantastic. The K/9 will be over 10, as will the swinging strike rate.
The Athletics have the second-highest SO/AB with the second-lowest wOBA. That’s a good combination. McClanahan also has the most matches according to the Pro Trends with 8, and the Bargain rating is close to 90%.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Robbie Ray ($9,400) Seattle Mariners (-115) at Chicago White Sox
Ray is down on the totem pole from a projections perspective. As a result, he has a projected ownership that is four or five times lower than the top options on the slate. One of the main reasons is the weather, as there is an elevated chance the game gets postponed. If the game goes, then Ray has the upside, which would be combined with razor-thin ownership.
Now, he did not have the greatest opening start. He did get the win, pitched seven innings, and only allowed one earned run, but he walked four while striking out five. The FIP was 5.62. It was the first start of the season, though, so I’m not putting too much stock into that. In the prior six seasons, the K/9 was over 11. Walks have always been a concern, but he shaved the BB/9 down to 2.42 last season, which contributed to his Cy Young win.
Last season, in two starts against the White Sox, he went 6.1 innings, allowed one earned run, and struck out 13 in one, then followed that up with seven innings, one earned run, and 14 strikeouts in the other.
In our models, the White Sox have the lowest wOBA on the slate and are fourth in SO/AB.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
- Andrew McCutchen (1) ($4,800)
- Willy Adames (2) ($4,700)
- Christian Yelich (3) ($4,900)
- Hunter Renfroe (4) ($5,000)
- Keston Hiura (5) ($3,200)
The Brewers have one of the highest SO/AB rates, but they also have a .300 wOBA. Only two other teams have a higher number. The fences have been moved back in Camden Yards, but there is wind projected to be blowing out to left field at over 10 mph tonight, which could negate some of the new dimensions. They are also the away team, so there will be guaranteed plate appearances in the ninth inning.
John Means doesn’t throw hard but relies on offspeed and breaking stuff, which has allowed him to post a swinging strike rate in the double-digits. That said, he is prone to the long ball, allowing 1.84 and 2.47 HR/9 over the last two seasons.
Against left-handed pitching last season, McCutchen posted a .335 ISO and 18% strikeout rate. Adames struck out 31.8% of the time but had a .205 ISO. Yelich was poor against lefties, but Renfroe had a .226 ISO and 20.5% strikeout rate. Hiura was terrible with a .069 ISO and 41.3% strikeout rate.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT, when generated by ceiling belongs to the New York Yankees:
The White Sox are the top-rated stack but there are serious weather concerns, so I put the second-rated stack.
We know the power that the Yankees have, as the ISO is .224, .276, .329, .353, and .213 in the above-mentioned stack. They have the highest run projection on the slate, and Yankees Stadium is one of the more hitter-friendly parks in the league.
Jose Berrios struggled in his opening day start, unable to get out of the first inning after allowing four earned runs. In three prior starts in Yankees Stadium, he has allowed 3 home runs with a slash of .281/.379/.509.
In THE BAT X, Berrios has the second-lowest projection while the Yankees have the second-highest wOBA.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Vlad Guerrero Jr. 1B ($6,000 DraftKings) Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees (Gerrit Cole)
Cole has been notoriously tough against righties. Last season, the strikeout rate was 30.6% against them, while the ISO was only .131. Guerrero has notoriously mashed right-handed pitching, though. Last season, the strikeout rate was only 15.8%, while the ISO was .306. The immovable object vs. the unstoppable force.
Guerrero is expensive, but the projected ownership is minuscule. Guerrero is one of the best hitters in baseball, and his upside is immense.
George Springer OF ($4,700 DraftKings) Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees (Gerrit Cole)
It’s the same thesis as with Vlad. Springer was great against right-handed pitching last season. The strikeout rate was only 21.5%, while the ISO was .315. He bats leadoff for the Blue Jays and has some stolen base upside as well.
Wander Franco SS ($5,500 DraftKings) Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics (Frankie Montas)
Franco is slated to bat second, and the Rays are implied for 4.5 runs. The main allure of Franco today is that Montas throws the sinker 37% of the time. Against that pitch last season, Franco had a .292 ISO, .425 wOBA, 92.11 contact rate, and only whiffed 7.89%. Granted, the sample size was small at only 18 batted ball events but still. That’s elite production.
