The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a split slate. FanDuel offers a four-game early slate starting at 1:15 p.m. ET, while DraftKings offers a three-game early slate starting at 3:10 p.m. ET. Both sites feature a 10-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slates feature two of the best pitchers in baseball:
- Gerrit Cole (R) $12,100, HOU vs. TEX
- Max Scherzer (R) $10,400, WSH @ STL
Cole is putting together arguably the best season of his career in 2019. He’s pitched to a 2.62 ERA and 2.54 xFIP while striking out a career-best 13.66 batters per nine innings. He’s also racked up 6.5 wins above replacement, which is the top mark among starting pitchers.
It’s hard to find even a single flaw with Cole today vs. the Texas Rangers. Their projected lineup has been brutal against right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .284 wOBA and 25.7% strikeout rate, and they’re currently implied for just 2.6 runs. Cole is also a massive -476 favorite, and pitchers with comparable Vegas data have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.02 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Cole also provides a nice combination of strikeout upside and recent Statcast data. He leads all of today’s starters with a K Prediction of 9.6, and that’s actually a pretty conservative estimate. He’s recorded at least 10 strikeouts in nine of his past 11 starts, including each of his past six.
When batters have been able to put the ball in play against Cole, their results haven’t been much better. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 205 feet and hard-hit rate of 26%, both of which represent solid decreases compared to his 12-month averages.
Scherzer is available only on the FanDuel early slate, and he’s an interesting option vs. the St. Louis Cardinals. The Nationals have taken it easy on Scherzer since he returned to the rotation on August 22. He’s thrown 99 pitches or less in each of his past six starts, which has capped his fantasy production. That said, the Nationals are only 1.5 games up on the Cubs and Brewers in the NL Wild Card race, so they may not have that luxury today.
If the Nationals do let him throw a few additional pitches, he should be able to take advantage vs. the Cards. Their projected lineup has been terrible against right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .276 wOBA. Scherzer’s Vegas data is a touch lower than usual — 3.4 opponent implied team total, -157 moneyline odds — but it still stands out as the best on the early slate.
Scherzer could also see slightly lower ownership than usual on FanDuel. DFS players will have to choose between Scherzer and Coors Field on the early slate, and his recent performances could push some towards the expensive offenses.
Values
Jon Lester is not the same pitcher he was during his prime, but he’s still capable of recording outs. He’s actually increased his K/9 to 8.74 this season, which also gives him a little more appeal in DFS.
He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Cincinnati Reds. Their projected lineup has posted a .315 wOBA and 28.0% strikeout rate against southpaws over the past 12 months, and they rank just 25th in wRC+ vs. left-handers over the second half of the season. Overall, he has decent marks across the board: 4.1 opponent implied team total, -170 moneyline odds, 5.3 K Prediction.
He’s underpriced at just $7,200 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 87%.
Dylan Bundy is an interesting option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). His Vegas data is on the high side — he owns a 4.7 opponent implied team total — but he has some of the best strikeout upside on the slate vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. Their projected lineup has struck out in 28.3% of at-bats vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, and Bundy has posted a K/9 of 9.04 over the same time frame.
He also enters this contest in solid recent Statcast form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 198 feet, which represents a decrease of 13 percentage points compared to his 12-month average.
Dinelson Lamet is another pitcher with an excellent combination of strikeout upside and recent Statcast data. He’s one of the more underrated strikeout pitchers in baseball, owning a K/9 of 11.76 this season, and he’s taking on a Brewers lineup that is a lot less imposing with Christian Yelich on the IL. Their projected lineup has posted a .303 wOBA and 32.2% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Opposing batters have also managed an average distance of just 192 feet when they have put the ball in play vs. Lamet over the past 15 days. That represents a decrease of 20 feet compared to his 12-month average. He has excellent upside in this matchup.
Fastballs
Mike Leake: The pitching options on the afternoon slate are dreadful, particularly on DraftKings since Scherzer isn’t an option. That makes Leake a viable option given his elite matchup vs. the Marlins. They’ve been one of the worst teams in baseball this season against right-handed pitchers, and Leake’s $7,000 salary on DraftKings results in a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Aaron Civale: He’s coming off back-to-back poor starts, but he’s in an excellent spot to right the ship vs. the Detroit Tigers. He owns a 3.5 opponent implied team total and -283 moneyline odds, and pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.98 on DraftKings.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the New York Mets:
- 1. Brandon Nimmo (L)
- 2. Jeff McNeil (L)
- 3. Michael Conforto (L)
- 4. Robinson Cano (L)
Total Salary: $14,500
The Mets are wrapping up their series at Coors Field this afternoon, and they lead the slate with an implied team total of 7.2 runs. With that in mind, $14,500 for their top stack is very reasonable. Their Team Value Rating of 96 ranks first on the early slate.
They’re taking on Rockies right-hander Jeff Hoffman, who has been an absolute disaster when pitching at Coors this season. He’s posted a 7.24 ERA over 32.1 innings pitched, and opposing batters have averaged 2.78 HRs per nine innings. The Mets are expected to load the top of their lineup with left-handed batters, all of whom have displayed above-average ability against traditional pitchers over the past 12 months.
Nimmo stands out as the projected leadoff hitter. He’s homered in each of the first two games of this series, and his Statcast data from the past 15 days is excellent. He’s posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +43 feet, and leadoff hitters with comparable distance differentials have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.13 on FanDuel. It’s a small sample size — only 14 previous batters have fit this trend — but it goes to show the type of upside he has in this matchup.
On the main slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack belongs to the Houston Astros:
- 1. George Springer (R)
- 2. Jose Altuve (R)
- 3. Michael Brantley (L)
- 4. Alex Bregman (R)
- 8. Martin Maldonado (R)
Total Salary: $23,900
The Astros are currently implied for 6.0 runs, which is the third-highest mark on the main slate. They’re taking on left-hander Kolby Allard, and the Astros have absolutely feasted on southpaws this season. They rank first in wRC+, first in wOBA and third in ISO.
Allard isn’t a particularly good left-hander, either. He ranked as just the 24th-best prospect in the Rangers’ farm system according to FanGraphs, and he’s pitched to a 4.34 ERA through 37.1 MLB innings this season.
Brantley could be a bit overlooked in this lefty-lefty matchup, but he’s still posted a 115 wRC+ when facing a southpaw at home this season. He also enters today’s contest in elite recent form, posting a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +25 feet and hard-hit differential of +11 percentage points.
Other Batters
Nick Castellanos has been a monster for the Chicago Cubs since being acquired before the trade deadline. He’s clubbed 15 HRs over just 44 games after hitting 11 HRs over 100 games with the Detroit Tigers. He’s an excellent value today on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 82%, and he combines strong recent Statcast data with an implied team total of 5.7 runs.
David Freese is expected to occupy the leadoff spot for the Dodgers, which makes him an excellent value option at just $2,400 on FanDuel. He’s posted a .394 wOBA and .239 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Astros SP Gerrit Cole (45)
Photo Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports
