Another busy midweek Major League Baseball main slate is coming your way, with Wednesday’s slate featuring 10 games and locks at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Because FanDuel doesn’t have the second game of the Boston-Toronto doubleheader, I will be focusing on just FanDuel’s 10-game slate. If you do play DraftKings’ 11-game main slate, remember the doubleheader is only a seven-inning game.
Pitchers
Three of the best right-handed pitchers in baseball top pricing:
- Walker Buehler (R) $11,500, LAD @ SF
- Zack Wheeler (R) $10,600, PHI vs WSH
- Lucas Giolito (R) $9,200, CHW @ KC
Despite a dip in fastball velocity and strikeout rate, Walker Buehler has his best single-season ERA. He has only pitched more than 37 innings three times in his career (rookie and pandemic seasons making up the other two), but Buehler appears to be settling in with an acceptable ground-ball rate and an ability to limit the long ball.
He will need to do so against the San Francisco Giants. Their offense performs well at home and on the road. They are top 10 in baseball in HR/FB ratio and have done so with one of the lowest GB/FB ratios against right-handers in home games. The Giants are susceptible to striking out, so Buehler could collect strikeouts in a losing effort. Giants-Dodgers has the lowest projected run total, a plus for Buehler backers.
Zack Wheeler is the top-rated pitcher, according to the Bales Model. He has the top projection and the Phillies are 1.6-run favorites against the Washington Nationals. Wheeler also has the lowest Home Runs Per 9 among projected starters and leads the position in Pro Trends. The Nationals are not bad considering how strong right-handed pitching has been at home in 2021, but they do have the third-highest BABIP in road games. The offense also has the highest GB/FB ratio by 0.19, the largest gap between two teams using that statistic.
Lucas Giolito has the best umpire matchup. Roberto Ortiz (+7.7) favors pitching and should aid Giolito’s strong strikeout rate. The Royals are one of the worst home offenses but average 1.1 runs more per game at Kauffman Stadium. He needs to pitch well like his May 9 start in Kansas City to keep his detractors away; Giolito has a 4.58 road ERA and had a 4.06 June ERA after MLB changed the rules for substances used by pitchers. Giolito is a top five option with salary savings among the top-priced pitchers.
Value
Andrew Heaney’s 46 FanDuel-point effort his last start was his best fantasy output since June 8. He gets the Colorado Rockies at home. The Rockies have one of the five worst road offenses against left-handed pitching according to wRC+ and are bottom-10 in Hard Hit percentage and HR/FB ratio. Heaney’s 1.53 HR/9 is the second-highest in a season of his career (min. 12 starts made). Another strong start would have Heaney topping projections in consecutive starts for the first time since his June 1 and 8 starts.
Fastballs
Tylor Megill has made a strong first impression for the Mets. You love to see only three homers allowed in 30 innings, but the 3.78 xFIP (2.10 ERA) is a red flag. The Mets have dealt with a myriad of injuries but are a better team than their opponent, the Atlanta Braves. The Braves have a top three Hard Hit percentage on the road against righties, but the loss of Ronald Acuna Jr. downgrades the offense. Megill has allowed 38.5 percent of put in play to be hit hard, but he only has allowed 2.6 percent to be barreled. He is a top-five option with his higher salary.
Tyler Mahle unsurprisingly has a better road ERA than at home. He has allowed 10 fewer home runs in 13 2/3 innings pitchers in road starts. It is supposed to be in the low 80s in Chicago for first pitch, but the wind at Wrigley Field is supposed to be calm and blowing out at 6 mph.
Zach Davies has allowed an .833 OPS to Cincinnati Reds hitters.
Notable Stack
West coast is the best coast for the top projected stack:
- Jared Walsh (L)
- David Fletcher (R)
- Justin Upton (R)
- Shohei Ohtani (L)
Total Salary: $13,100
David Fletcher is the top-rated hitter on FanDuel against Chi Chi Gonzalez and the Rockies. Note that Jared Walsh is day-to-day with a side injury and did not play Tuesday. The Angels are –202 favorites against Colorado, with a projected team total of 5.7 as well.
Other Hitters
Kris Bryant is slashing .389/.421/.1000 in 18 at-bats against Tyler Mahle.
Opposite Bryant on the Reds is Joey Votto. He has a .928 OPS and 4:5 K/BB ratio against Zach Davies.
Since returning from the IL, Kolten Wong has a nine-game hitting streak and five walks. He continues to hit at the top of the Brewers lineup.
Jose Abreu has two hits (one homer) in 10 at-bats against Royals starter Kris Bubic.
Randy Arozarena is slugging .515 against left-handed pitching. Yankees starter Nestor Cortes has not pitched more than four innings in an outing this season, but the hope is Arozarena can get two at-bats against him before he is pulled.
