Tuesday’s main slate is nine games deep and locks at 7:05 pm E.T.
Using the FantasyLabs tools and models, we’ll break down the whole slate.
Pitchers
The only thing that feels shorter than a three-day weekend is the pitching options worth using tonight. Tuesday’s offering includes four pitchers priced at $9,000 or more:
- Walker Buehler (R) $10,400, LAD @ ARI
- Mike Clevinger (R) $9,600, SD vs COL
- Andrew Heaney (L) $9,200, LAA @ TEX
- Sixto Sanchez (R), $9,000, MIA @ ATL
There is a story to tell with the pitching options tonight using xwOBA — Expected Weighted On-base Average. The statistic takes out defense from a pitcher’s performance and factors in exit velocity, launch angle, and occasionally batter speed.
Walker Buehler has strung together two good starts and has crossed the five-inning threshold in those outings. He has also cut down increased his strikeout-to-walk ratio to 19.8%. Buehler’s biggest concern is luck.
Buehler’s wOBA is .252, but his xwOBA is .312. That’s a sign that regression could be coming. The good news is Buehler and the Los Angeles Dodgers start a series with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Arizona has won two of its lat 18 games. Those wins were August 12 and September 4. The Diamondbacks rank in the bottom-10 of batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and Offensive WAR. But Buehler will not leave his outing without some blemishes; Arizona has an xwOBA of .322, .034 higher than their .288 wOBA.
Mike Clevinger and xwOBA paint a dubious picture heading into his start against the Colorado Rockies, but the Rockies are who we thought they were away from Coors Field. The long-term outlook for Clevinger is not a good one because his wxOBA is .379. What may be worse is his wOBA of .347. The wins are not coming, and his 3.14 ERA should be higher. Clevinger’s Expected ERA (xERA) is 5.98.
Much like Buehler, Clevinger’s opponent is weak offensively. Clevinger is the highest-rated player on the Bales Model and Colorado’s weak offense plays a significant part in his rating. The Rockies are projected to score 3.4 runs today, lowest on the main slate. If Colorado were to exploit Clevinger, they’ll do it via the free pass; he averages 3.77 walks per 9 innings.
Andrew Heaney is the high-priced pitcher to avoid Tuesday. xwOBA shows that Heaney should be allowing more baserunners while his opponent, the Texas Rangers (.275 wOBA, .320 xwOBA), should be reaching base more often. The Rangers have scored two runs or less four times over their past 14 games (15 days) while Heaney has allowed two-plus runs in every game.
Heaney is coming off consecutive quality starts and wins, but only has one other instance of either the rest of the season. The Bales Model projects the Angels to outscore the Rangers 4.2-3.9, but I prefer the other pitcher in this matchup as you will see a little later.
Tonight’s best matchup features a star pitcher facing one of the best offenses in baseball. Sixto Sanchez has been as good as advertised, and his xwOBA (.229) is .064 lower than his wOBA. He faces the Atlanta Braves and their .352 xwOBA. Atlanta is sporting a .344 wOBA, meaning both Sanchez and the Braves should have better results than presented.
Sanchez is on a mediocre Miami Marlins club, and the Braves are recovering from offensive injuries and a poor showing from majority of their pitching staff. I will fade Sixto this evening and simply enjoy his battles with the likes of Ronald Acuna, Jr. and Marcell Ozuna.
Values
Lance Lynn missed out on the high-priced tier by $400. I am a little surprised he was priced lower, but he was hit hard for the first time this season by the underperforming Houston Astros. Lynn’s xwOBA is a respectable .287, 27 points above his wOBA. His xERA and Expected Fielder Independent Pitcher numbers skew against the right-hander as well. The Los Angeles Angels (.335 xwOBA, .322 wOBA) have been underperforming like the Astros and are a league-average team on the road. On a bad pitching slate, a home start for one of 2020’s most consistent starters (84% Consistency rating) keep Lynn in the player pool for tonight.
Giants’ starter Logan Webb pops in the Bales Model because the Seattle Mariners are one of the worst offenses in baseball. Webb’s xwOBA is .367, .044 points higher than his wOBA. The Seattle Mariners should be reaching base .022 points more than they are, so regression for Webb is on the table. Seattle has a 116 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) on the road versus righties, or 16% above league average. Webb is the money-saving option tonight, but he is volatile.
Fastballs
Dylan Cease has a juicy matchup against the Pirates, but he has pitched above expectations and the Pirates are hitting well below their expectations. Cease has legit stuff as a pitcher and the Pirates do not hit well against righties at home. At $8,400, I would rather pay up for Lynn if I am not spending $9,000-plus on pitching.
Notable Stacks
No surprise to see a Los Angeles Dodgers stack top today’s options:
- Max Muncy (L)
- Corey Seager (L)
- Mookie Betts (R)
- Cody Bellinger (L)
Total Salary: $16,300
The best stack is the most expensive stack today. The Dodgers have two of the top 10 and three of the top 15 players on today’s slate, according to the Bales Model. There is another stack that saves money while projecting to score 1.3 points less:
- Mitch Moreland (L)
- Manny Machado (R)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)
- Trent Grisham (L)
Total Salary: $14,800
Mitch Moreland slots in for Eric Hosmer after he left Monday’s game with a hand injury. At $2,900, he is the main reason for the Padres being a cheaper stack. Trent Grisham hit ninth Monday but projects to hit first in this stack. Monitor his spot in the batting order before committing to this four-man stack. San Diego is the largest favorites of the night and the stack with Clevinger could be the big winner tonight in DFS.
Other Batters
Start your Chicago White Sox, folks. Jose Abreu is averaging the most points per game at the hybrid catcher/first base spot and has a 20-game hitting streak. Yasmani Grandal continues to be priced below $3,000 and has three straight games with 15 FanDuel points or more.
Starling Marte has hits in five of six games since being traded to Miami. Kyle Wright starts for Atlanta and has walked three batters or more in each of his four starts. Wright has also pitched past the fourth inning only once.
Jesus Aguilar ($2,700) is projected to hit behind Marte in the Marlins lineup and offers upside while costing little in a game that could be high scoring.
Mike Yastrzemski has been one of the breakout hitters of 2020 and has a six-game hitting streak to start September, including three multi-hit games. The Giants hit well at home and face Seattle’s Ljay Newsome, whose xFIP is higher than his ERA in both of his outings this season. San Francisco projects to score 5.1 runs this evening.
