The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 13 game slate, beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Four pitchers on today’s slate are priced above $10,000 on FanDuel:
- Gerrit Cole (R) $12,300, HOU @ SEA
- Mike Clevinger (R) $11,600, CLE @ CWS
- Jack Flaherty (R) $11,000, STL @ ARI
- Max Scherzer (R) $10,600, WSH vs. PHI
Cole is the clear choice amongst the top options for numerous reasons.His opponent implied team total (2.8), moneyline odds (-448), and average Plus/Minus(+9.1) all rank as the best amongst the pitchers on the slate. He also ranks second with a K prediction of 9.73; behind only Max Scherzer.
Cole has the best FIP in the American League (2.74) and the best xFIP (2.56) amongst all starting pitchers. He also owns the best strikeout rate in MLB (39.1%), sitting down more than 13 batters per nine innings. The Mariners also rank 20th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the second half; 14 percentage points below league average. Cole has averaged over 50 fantasy points per game over the past calendar year.
The three pitchers behind him are Scherzer (45.1), Clevinger (43.7), and Flaherty (36.7). Amongst that group, Clevinger has the best matchup, facing a White Sox offense that ranks 24th in wRC+ against righties since the All-Star Break.
Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Mike Clevinger (52).
The Phillies (18th), and Diamondbacks (21st) present slightly tougher tasks for Scherzer and Flaherty, respectively. However, both the Cardinals and Indians are favorites of greater than -200, while the Nationals are only a -190 favorite; playing the second game of a doubleheader.
Clevinger has a higher projected strikeout total (8.63) and lower implied run total (3.3) than Flaherty (6.25, 3.5). Flaherty is in the midst of a dominant 10-start run (0.93 ERA, 2.34 FIP), but Clevinger has been every bit as good (1.97 ERA, 2.38 FIP) over the same span. Flaherty has averaged 52.5 fantasy points per game over the past month, while Clevinger has averaged 49.7 — but I would still give a slight edge to the more expensive pitcher.
Clevinger’s FIP (2.47) and xFIP (3.00) are substantially better than Flaherty’s (3.63, 3.72) metrics throughout 2019. I would rank Scherzer above Flaherty, but otherwise, I think that this group of pitchers is lined up in the correct order for Monday. Look for a way to squeeze Cole or Clevinger into your lineups.
Values
Rich Hill makes his first start since September 12, when he lasted just two-thirds of an inning against the Orioles. He threw 22 pitches in a simulated game, with a knee brace on Sept. 18, and reportedly felt fine. Our tools project Hill for 89 pitches on Tuesday, and if he lasts that long he’s a substantial bargain; projected for eight strikeouts at a cost of $5000.
His price took a $2,800 haircut after that short outing against Baltimore when Hill was pulled after exhibiting an evident lack of command in the first inning. He’s worth including in a tournament lineup on Monday, due to the massive gap between his floor and ceiling — which ranks as the fourth-highest ceiling projection on the slate.
Hill owns the highest projected Plus/Minus (+22.37) of any pitcher on the slate.
Noah Syndergaard ranks just above Hill, and behind only Cole and Clevinger in terms of ceiling projection. His price has decreased by $1,300 over the past month, after raising concerns about his displeasure with pitching to Wilson Ramos.
Credit: Mike Stobe/Getty Images. Pictured: Noah-Syndergaard.
Syndergaard has the second-lowest implied opponent total (3.0) behind Gerrit Cole on Monday and is facing an offense that ranks 27th in wRC+ (80) against righties since the All-Star Break. His ERA (3.60) and FIP (3.14) over that span are improvements on his season-long numbers (4.22 ERA, 3.63 FIP), making Thor a value play thanks to the recent price drop.
Fastballs
Eduardo Rodriguez: Ranks fifth amongst pitchers on the slate, averaging 35.5 fantasy points per game this season – but his implied opponent run total (4.6) ranks 12th on Monday. His 100% consistency rating is tied with Cole and Clevinger, and the Rangers have struggled against southpaws (29th in wRC+ since the All-Star break) so Rodriguez looks like a risky but worthy tournament option.
Yonny Chirinos: Is an intriguing option, given his Bargain Rating of 79% and the fact that his Plus/Minus rating (6.4) ranks second in the slate – ahead of Mike Clevinger and Jack Flaherty. The risk is in going against the Yankees, who have the second-best wRC+ (117) in MLB.
Homer Bailey: Ranks 7th amongst pitchers on the slate in points per game (35.8) over the past month, and the Angels lineup has been punchless without Mike Trout; ranking 24th in wRC+ in September; 18 percent below league average.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man FanDuel stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Oakland Athletics:
- 1. Marcus Semien (R)
- 2. Matt Chapman (R)
- 3. Matt Olson (L)
- 4. Mark Canha (R)
Total Salary: $15,000
The Oakland Athletics have crushed left-handed pitching over the past season and a half. They’re 31-12 against lefty starters in 2019 and have won 10 of their past 11 games against left-handed starters. Since July 1, 2018, their offense ranks third in wRC+ (118) against southpaws, and the four players above own wRC+ marks of 140, 130, 100, and 124 against lefties this season.
On Monday, they will take on Angels’ lefty Dillon Peters, whose ERA (4.81) is an improvement upon a 5.83 FIP and 5.41 xFIP. Peters has a subpar strikeout rate, fanning just about seven batters per nine innings, and he has allowed 14 home runs in 63.2 innings; a rate of nearly two home runs per nine innings.
Ranking just behind the Athletics is an Atlanta Braves stack including the following batters:
- 1. Ronald Acuna Jr. (R)
- 2. Ozzie Albies (S)
- 3. Josh Donaldson (R)
- 4. Adam Duvall (R)
Total Salary: $13,800
The three-man stack, which doesn’t include Donaldson, also ranks as the second-best three-man stack on the FanDuel slate.The Braves face Danny Duffy, who has pitched to a 1.78 ERA in September, but Duffy’s underlying 4.75 xFIP points to regression. On the season, Duffy owns a 4.76 FIP and a 5.08 xFIP.
Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Atlanta Braves center fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13).
On the season, the Braves rank around average against left-handed pitching, with a 100 wRC+; and since the All-Star break, they’re below average; ranking 24th with a 94 wRC+.Acuna (131), Albies (182), Donaldson (126), and Duvall (218) are all substantially above average, individually, in terms of wRC+ against lefties – but the bottom of the Braves order has been much less effective against southpaws.
Other Batters
The Toronto Blue Jays are taking on the Baltimore Orioles, which automatically puts them on the DFS radar. Amongst starting pitchers who have thrown more than 100 innings over the past year, Dylan Bundy has allowed more home runs than any pitcher (69) with the seventh-highest home run rate (1.9 HR/9).
Some hitters to target include Cavan Biggio and Randal Grichuk, both of whom have averaged more than 10 fantasy points per game over the past month. At 17.1 points per game, Biggio ranks third in MLB over the past month. They are batting second and third, respectively, in the Blue Jays lineup on Tuesday.
Cardinals third baseman Tommy Edman remains a steal at $3,100 on FanDuel. He has averaged 10.2 points per game this year and has a bargain rating of 99%. He has a delightful combination of power (11 HR) and speed (14 steals).
I would also take a look at Jesus Aguilar who is batting third for the Rays tonight for $2600. The slugger has struggled in 2019 but owned a 144 wRC+ against southpaws last season – and jumped from an 87 wRC+ with the Brewers this season, to 123 with the Rays.
He’s likely to get replaced with a pinch hitter against a righty, especially late in a close game, but he’s a significant bargain hitting in the middle of the Rays order.
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Pictured above: Oakland Athletics shortstop Marcus Semien (10)
Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
