The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday gives us an 11-game main slate to play with the first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
The favorite on the Bales Model for both sites is Brandon Woodruff tonight. Woodruff has not been nearly as dominant in the second half of the season as he began the year. He is still a strong strikeout arm, however.
For the whole season, Woodruff’s numbers are solid with a 2.55 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Those have actually ballooned as of late. He has allowed a combined seven earned runs in his last two starts and allowed six earned to the St. Louis Cardinals, who he faces tonight.
Between those two stretches, Woodruff showcased why it would be tough to abandon his ship just yet. He had a two-start stretch against strong offenses in the San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds, where he combined for twelve innings, giving up one run, with 18 strikeouts.
The strikeout upside will always be there with Woodruff. He has the highest K Prediction tonight at 7.06. In May, he struck out 10 Cardinals in a start.
I trust him to bounce back tonight in a game that should have a playoff atmosphere. He hits for seven ProTrends, and the Cardinals have the lowest implied total of the night at 3.1.
The second best option of the night is Jordan Montgomery. Montgomery has shown some pretty strong consistency for the New York Yankees this season. He has only allowed more than three earned runs in a start once since June 15th.
He is coming off a 12-strikeout performance against the Baltimore Orioles last week. While that is definitely not the norm to expect from him, he has showcased that he is at least a strikeout per inning pitcher this season. That could translate well to facing a light-hitting Texas Rangers team. The Rangers are 29th in the MLB in runs per game and are dead last in wOBA against left-handed pitching at .285.
I would expect “Monty” to have a decent leash tonight. The Yankees need length whenever they can get it right now and used a lot of key arms in their bullpen on Monday night.
All of that strikes as a positive for Montgomery. He hits for nine ProTrends on the night, and the Yankees are strong -238 favorites. He comes in around $2,000 cheaper than Woodruff on both sites, too.
There is a severe drop-off in rating after those two on both sites. The best punt play is Griffin Jax.
He is a tough one to swallow. He has allowed at least one home run in 10-of-12 appearances and is well below a strikeout an inning with 54 in 69 innings.
This is more about the matchup and the playing conditions than anything. Jax is facing the Chicago Cubs, who, like the Minnesota Twins, are playing their season out. There are also supposed to be 18 MPH winds blowing in towards home plate at Wrigley Field. Wrigley is notorious for having the winds greatly affect the total of a ballgame. So, it would appear that it will be difficult to hit a home run at Wrigley tonight.
That should help Jax, who has showcased as a clear fly ball pitcher. He has 151 fly-ball outs to 72 ground-ball outs.
He is a pure GPP play at a low, low price. I think there are factors that make him make sense, though.
Kevin Gausman is not the highest-rated play of the night, but I think he has some upside.
Gausman is being downgraded for his rough September – as he has a monthly ERA of 4.70. One thing I like is that he is still recording strikeouts and not walking opposing hitters. In the month, he has 32 strikeouts to three walks.
He will face the San Diego Padres – who roughed him up a bit in his last outing. He went five innings, giving up four earned runs, with seven strikeouts. The fact that he is still recording strikeouts showcases that he is still doing something right.
Overall, the Padres’ offense has really been floundering of late. They have four (!) home runs in the last two weeks. In the midst of a playoff push, they have really regressed.
I think Woodruff or Montgomery are better plays for tonight, but I would not hate mixing in some utilizing of Gausman.
Hitters
Notable Stack
The top stack of the night belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- Max Muncy (L)
- Corey Seager (L)
- Mookie Betts (R)
- Justin Turner (R)
This group is projected for 58.1 FanDuel points on a salary of $16,500. Another expensive stack, but this one makes sense as the Dodgers head to Coors Field. They face Antonio Senzatela, who falls into this weird season-long trend of dominating in Coors. For all of the struggles of the Colorado Rockies this season, they somehow figured that out. He also shut out the Dodgers last month for seven innings in Los Angeles. If you are going to stack them, you are fading both of those facts. Vegas has not deflated this total really at all, with the Dodgers have an implied run total of 6.6. So, they think the runs are still a-coming.
Other Hitters
Ty France has been a strong hitter who does not get a ton of attention playing in Seattle. He is one of the top bargains according to the Bales Model for tonight. He is in the midst of a seven-game hitting streak and has been an over .300 hitter since July 1st. I’ve liked Paul Blackburn in what he has shown for the Oakland Athletics so far this year, but he is a non-strikeout pitcher who will give up hits.
Tommy La Stella can be a sneaky top-of-the-lineup play. My only concern with him is that he can get double switched a lot and leave an at-bat on the table. He is having his best OPS month of the season at .738. La Stella features prominently at the top of tonight’s Lineup Optimizer. He has consistently been one of the cheapest top-of-the-lineup at-bats for a while now.
Another sneaky play is Josh Rojas. Rojas is not getting a ton of attention batting a-top the pitiful Arizona Diamondbacks’ lineup. He does some strong work for them, though. He has a little bit of pop and can showcase speed as well. Rojas currently has a seven-game on-base streak working and has stolen two bags in that timeframe. In a GPP, I would not expect him to be very high-owned.
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