Tuesday’s slate features 11 games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
There are four starters who are priced above $9,500 tonight on FanDuel:
- Aaron Nola (R), $10,200, vs. WSH
- Framber Valdez (L), $9,900, vs. TEX
- Zach Plesac (R), $9,700, @ KC
- Patrick Corbin (L), $9,600, @ PHI
Nola is the biggest name of this bunch, so having the highest price makes sense here. Nola has been consistent for the Philadelphia Phillies this season and faced the Washington Nationals his last time out. He threw seven innings with eight strikeouts and two runs to pick up the win.
I would much rather have Nola than Corbin in my lineup, even with the $600 difference. It’s known how bad the Phillies’ bullpen has been this year, which means Nola is going to stick around in games. Both Nola and Corbin have strikeout stuff, but oddly enough, the Nationals own the fewest strikeouts per game in the MLB. The Phillies are fourth.
If you’re using Nola, it’s because of his consistency and ability to avoid a blow-up game. Therefore, he’s a cash option.
Valdez just screams “avoid” to me today. There are not many elite options, but I just cannot see using him. For starters, no one knows if this game is actually going to happen or not. Valdez was supposed to start Sunday, but the game was postponed because the Houston Astros’ opponent, the Oakland Athletics, had a traveling party member test positive for COVID-19. Does the two-day delay help or hurt Valdez?
Next, the wind is supposed to be blowing straight out at 15 miles per hour in Houston. Six out of the nine projected hitters in the Texas Rangers’ lineup have at least five Pro Trends.
I’ve loved the consistency that Valdez has shown in his last five starts and the fact he can actually go six or seven innings into a game now. I just think you have to look elsewhere tonight.
I think Plesac makes a lot of sense tonight. Targeting the Cleveland Indians’ starters has been a thing of beauty all year. Any night you check the box scores, it seems like the Indians are in a 2-1 game in the seventh inning.
Plesac hasn’t pitched in the majors since Aug. 8. He was sent to the restricted list for breaking team protocols for going out on a road trip in Chicago. Does this mean Terry Francona has a shorter leash on Plesac tonight, or does yesterday’s trade of Mike Clevinger show how much the Indians organization believes in Plesac? I think Cleveland believes in a guy with a 1.29 ERA, and they traded from a surplus of starting pitching on their team.
Plesac’s counterpart is Matt Harvey, so if the Indians are ever going to show their starter some run support, it should be tonight. The Kansas City Royals are slightly below average in strikeouts per game and second-to-last in MLB at 11.67 per game in their last three games. Plesac begins to make good on the Indians’ bet tonight.
I already spoke about Corbin a bit in Nola’s section. The two are similar pitchers, but Corbin can really bottom out with his strikeouts. Corbin has three games of eight or more strikeouts and three games of four or fewer, including only three his last time out against these Phillies.
We all know Corbin is capable of those complete shutdown games with double-digit strikeout numbers, but I don’t see that tonight. The Phillies have a 4.8 implied run total, which is pretty high, too.
Values
Julio Urias is worth a look tonight at only $7,300. With Urias, you’re hoping for length to squeeze out the win. The Arizona Diamondbacks were sellers in Monday’s trade deadline, shedding outfielder Starling Marte and reliever Archie Bradley.
In general, the Diamondbacks have been flat all season. Vegas has the Dodgers as strong favorites at -248.
Urias has only been able to go six innings twice in his six starts, so a play on him is really a play on how long you think he can last in the game for.
A bit of a dart throw would be Josh Lindblom of the Milwaukee Brewers. Lindblom has a hideous 6.31 ERA (his FIP is 4.50), but he has extremely strong strikeout numbers. His K/9 is 12.6 (for reference, Nola’s is 11.7), and he faces the Detroit Tigers, who have the fourth-most strikeouts per game in the league.
Lindblom has one win and zero quality starts, so it’s a true play on the strikeout potential. His price tag of $6,800 leaves a lot of room for higher-priced hitters, however.
A bit of a contrarian play that I like tonight is Chad Kuhl. He is the cheapest of the three listed here at $6,500 but faces a strong Chicago Cubs lineup.
Kuhl just doesn’t seem to give up a lot of runs. He has a 2.52 ERA on the year, giving up one, one, three, and one the last four times out. The downside to Kuhl is that he racked up only two strikeouts combined in his last two starts. Still, he posted 13 combined in the two prior. The Cubs average the third-most strikeouts per game in the league.
Kuhl is really only in-play for GPPs, but the ownership is going to be really low.
Notable Stacks
The top stack of the night not belonging to Coors is shocking. The Bales Model has it as the Milwaukee Brewers:
- 4. Justin Smoak (L)
- 3. Keston Hiura (R)
- 1. Avisail Garcia (R)
- 2. Christian Yelich (L)
This group of four is projected for 50.6 points on a salary of only $12,600. This has a lot to do with just how bad Michael Fulmer has been for the Tigers this year. Garcia and Yelich hit for 5 Pro Trends each as well.
Coors does not enter the mix as the second-highest scoring stack, either. That belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- 3. Justin Turner (R)
- 2. Corey Seager (L)
- 1. Mookie Betts (R)
- 4. Cody Bellinger (L)
The Dodgers have an implied run total of 5.6 and have the wind blowing out at 6 mph. They face Alex Young and his 4.70 ERA. This stack is much more expensive at $15,200 and projected for 49.6 points.
The Colorado Rockies are at home in Coors tonight with an implied run total of 6.8. Their core four — the top four hitters — costs $15,900 and is projected for 47.7 FanDuel points. They are the third-highest scoring stack. At the time of writing, the San Francisco Giants are currently undecided on who their starter will be.
Other Hitters
With Michael Pineda returning to the mound tonight, I think the Chicago White Sox could do some damage. The Bales Model sees Yasmani Grandal, Yoan Moncada, and Tim Anderson all as bargains. Last year, Pineda gave up a higher average to left-handers, but a much higher slugging percentage to right-handers.
Some of the prices on the Indians’ hitters are pretty crazy. Eventually, they have to play to the back of their baseball cards. The Bales Model sees Francisco Lindor as a bargain at only $3,300. As I mentioned in Plesac’s section, the Indians face Kansas City’s Harvey, and there is no time like the present to get an offense hot. Harvey owns an 11.12 ERA.
